Trump's Suburban Problem Will Continue To Be Catastrophic For The GOP

Gangsta President goes over badly in the suburbs

On Wednesday, reporting from Richmond for the Washington Post, Laura Vozzella wrote that since Señor Trumpanzee “took office, voter turnout has surged in Virginia, the state that holds elections every year, leading analysts to conclude that even local races have turned into referendums on the president.” And that’s exactly what the lesser of two evils party is counting on this year, not just in Virginia but everyone outside of the deepest red states. The Democratic establishment is willing to gamble on candidates who will not expand the party’s voting base because they are counting on Trump’s toxicity to outweigh even fatally flawed garbage candidates like Status Quo Joe, Michael Bloomberg or Mayo Pete.

There are 19 states that are just too red for the Democrats to seriously contest: from most red to “least” red: Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah, West Virginia, Idaho, North Dakota, Arkansas, Kentucky, Alabama, Tennessee, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Louisiana, Montana, Mississippi, Alaska, Missouri and South Carolina. That’s 115 electoral votes. Among states that have been in that incontestable column before that are now considered battlegrounds are Texas, Arizona, North Carolina, Indiana and Georgia-- which together are worth 91 electoral votes. Without all of those battlegrounds does Trump real have a pathway to a second term? And yet even with all of them, he’s still far from victory and must win Florida and Ohio to even get within striking distance by winning a couple of states that are more blue than red.

I wouldn’t bet on Trump. His job approval ratings have decreased in every single state since he was inaurgurated, including in even the reddest states like Wyoming, Oklahoma, Utah and West Virginia. According to the latest Morning Consult Trump Tracker there is where Trump’s approval/disapproval stands now-- and how much it has decreased since he took over:

• Alabama- 59-37% but still down 14 points!
• Alaska- 53-43%, down 14 points
• Arizona- 46-50%, down 24 points
• Arkansas- 52-44%, down 22 points
• California- 34-62, down 22 points
• Colorado- 41-56%, down 16 points
• Connecticut- 37-59%, down 27 points
• Delaware- 39-57%, down 26 points
• DC- 17-79%, down 31 points
• Florida- 49-48%, down 21 points
• Georgia- 46-49%, down 21 points
• Hawaii- 31-66%, down 22 points
• Idaho- 57-39%, down 11 points
• Illinois- 38-58%, down 29 points
• Indiana- 49-47%, down 20 points
• Iowa- 42-55%, down 22 points
• Kansas- 50-47%, down 21 points
• Kentucky- 55-41%, down 20 points
• Louisiana- 53-43%, down 21 points
• Maine- 42-55%, down 21 points
• Maryland- 35-66%, down 14 points
• Massachusetts- 34-63%, down 25 points
• Michigan- 41-55%, down 22 points
• Minnesota- 42-55%, down 16 points
• Mississippi- 57-38%, down 15 points
• Missouri- 50-47%, down 16 points
• Montana- 48-49%, down 25 points
• Nebraska- 46-51%, down 28 points
• Nevada- 45-52%, down 17 points
• New Hampshire- 41-56%, down 16 points
• New Jersey- 41-56%, down 17 points
• New Mexico- 44-53%, down 26%
• New York- 36-61%, down 33 points
• North Carolina- 47-49%, down 20 points
• North Dakota- 49-47%, down 21 points
• Ohio- 46-51%, down 19 points
• Oklahoma- 53-44%, down 25 points
• Oregon- 36-60%, down 26 points
• Pennsylvania- 45-52%, down 17 points
• Rhode Island- 37-59%, down 18 points
• South Carolina- 52-44%, down 17 points
• South Dakota- 50-47%, down 18 points
• Tennessee- 56-40%, down 17 points
• Texas- 49-46%, down 17 points
• Utah- 49-47%, down 25 points
• Vermont- 28-70%, down 40 points
• Virginia- 45-52%, down 15 points
• Washington- 34-63%, down 30 points
• West Virginia- 58-39%, down 18 points
• Wisconsin- 41-55%, down 20 points
• Wyoming- 66-31%, down 5 points

How do you explain those numbers? The Associated Press’ Steve Peoples tried by noting Trump’s growing problems in the suburbs. He pointed to what was about to turn out to be gubernatorial losses for Trumpist allies Matt Bevin in Kentucky and Eddie Rispone in Louisiana. In two heavily red states that Trump won in landslides Andy Beshear ousted Matt Bevin 49.20% to 48.83% and John Bel Edwards beat Eddie Rispone 51.33% to 48.7%. In both races, the Republicans out-raised the Democrats.

Peoples wrote that “It's difficult to draw sweeping conclusions from state elections, each with their own unique quirks and personalities. But there's little doubt Tuesday's outcome is a warning to Republicans across the nation a year out from the 2020 election and a year after the 2018 midterms: The suburbs are still moving in the wrong direction. ‘Republican support in the suburbs has basically collapsed under Trump,’ Republican strategist Alex Conant said. ‘Somehow, we need to find a way to regain our suburban support over the next year.’… Republicans demonstrated their firm grip on rural areas, and turnout for both sides appeared to be healthy for off-year elections.”

But the GOP's challenge was laid bare in lower-profile elections across the nation on Tuesday.

Just outside Philadelphia, Democrats said they took control of the Delaware County's five-member council for the first time since the Civil War. In nearby Chester County, Democrats beat two Republican incumbents on the board of commissioners to seize the majority for the first time ever.

The same shifts defined state legislative races across Virginia's suburbs, particularly in places like Henrico County just outside Richmond.

Republican state Sen. Siobhan Dunnavant won there by almost 20 percentage points four years ago. The area has recently been transformed by an influx of younger, college-educated voters and minorities, a combination that's become a recipe for Democrats' support.

Dunnavant ended up winning by 2 percentage points against Democrat Debra Rodman, a college professor who seized on Trump and her Republican opponent's opposition to gun control to appeal to moderate voters.

In northern Virginia, Democrat John Bell flipped a state Senate district from red to blue in a district that has traditionally favored Republicans. The race, set in the rapidly growing and diverse counties outside of Washington, D.C., attracted nearly $2 million in political advertising.

Democrats' surging strength in the suburbs reflects the anxiety Trump provokes among moderates, particularly women, who have rejected his scorched-earth politics and uncompromising conservative policies on health care, education, and gun violence.

Republicans' response in Virginia was to try to stay focused on local issues. In the election's final days, Dunnavant encouraged Trump to stay out of the state. The president obliged, sending Vice President Mike Pence instead.

Struggling for a unifying message, some Republicans turned to impeachment, trying to tie local Democrats to their counterparts in Washington and the effort to impeach Trump.

No one played that card harder than Kentucky's Bevin, who campaigned aside an "impeachment" banner and stood next to Trump on the eve of the election.

That failed-- miserably. Republican strategist Rick Tyler: “They continue to lose needed support in suburban districts, especially among women and college-educated voters. That trend, if not reversed, is a death spiral.” And in 2018, an election marked by a significant anti-red wave elected many mediocre Democrats based almost only one one thing: not Trumpist/not Republican. These 2018 freshmen all represent predominantly suburban districts that were held by Republicans immediately before the election:

• Josh Harder (CA)
• TJ Cox (CA)
• Gil Cisneros (CA)
• Katie Porter (CA)
• Harley Rouder (CA)
• Mike Levin (CA)
• Jason Crow (CO)
• Lucy McBath (GA)
• Sean Casten (IL)
• Lauren Underwood (IL)
• Abby Finkenauer (IA)
• Cindy Axne (IA)
• Jared Golden (ME)
• Elissa Slotkin (MI)
• Haley Stevens (MI)
• Angie Craig (MN)
• Dean Phillips (MN)
• Steven Horsford (NV)
• Jeff Van Drew (NJ)
• Andy Kim (NJ)
• Tom Malinowski (NJ)
• Mikie Sherrill (NJ)
• Antonio Delgado (NY)
• Anthony Brindisi (NY)
• Madeleine Dean (PA)
• Chrissy Houlahan (PA)
• Colin Allred (TX)
• Ben McAdams (UT)
• Abigail Spanberger (VA)
• Jennifer Wexton (VA)
• Kim Schrier (WA)

And there are still plenty of suburban red-to-blue flips this cycle with Trump at the top of the ticket. Endangered suburban seats held by Republicans include AZ-06 (David Schweikert), CA-04 (Tom McClintock), CA-42 (Ken Calvert), CA-50 (Ducan Hunter), GA-07 (Rob Woodall), IL-13 (Rodney Davis), IN-05 (Susan Brooks), MO-02 (Ann Wagner), NC-02 (George Holding), NC-06 (Mark Walker), NY-01 (Lee Zeldin), NY-02 (Peter King), PA-01 (Brian Fitzpatrick), TX-10 (Michael McCaul), Chip Roy (TX-21), TX-22 (Pete Olson), TX-23 (Will Hurd), TX-24 (Kenny Marchant), TX-25 (Roger Williams), TX-31 (John Carter), VA-01 (Rob Wittman), VA-05 (Rob Riggleman) and WA-03 (Jaime Herrera Beutler). We talked to three of the progressives running to replace right-wing Republicans from these districts, Liam O'Mara, who's taking on Ken Calvert in Riverside County, CA; Julie Oliver, who wants a rematch against Roger Williams in the central Texas district that goes from central Austin all the way up to the southern Fort Worth Metro; and Nabilah Islam who is running for the open seat in the suburbs north of Atlanta.

Liam pointed out that "For the first time in decades, if not ever, the city of Corona is majority Democratic. The former Republican stronghold has experienced a steady wave of defections over the past few years, and Democrats now outnumber Republicans by a thousand voters and growing. It seems the racism and xenophobia, corruption, and incompetence of the Trump-era GOP is not acceptable to everyone. This should not come as a surprise-- while Republicans in the 42nd still have a numerical edge, their share of the total has been falling for a decade straight. The damage done by folks like McConnell, Calvert, and Trump to the national Republican brand may prove fatal in the end."

And Julie-- like so many Democrats running in increasingly "swingy" districts that have been dominated by Republicans-- is basing her campaign, in part, on the fact suburban voters have had it with GOP divisive politics. "Texans are tired of the bigotry, the hate, the fear-mongering, and the small, backwards-looking ideas of career politicians like Roger Williams and the status quo have tried to use to divide us. Our campaign laid the groundwork in 2018 a district that went for Trump by 21 points to within single digits through grassroots organizing, running on the courage of our convictions. And in 2020, we're going to finish the job."

Nabilah noted that "In rapidly diversifying suburbs like the one I am running to represent, the appetite for Donald Trump is next to none. What we're seeing is first and second-generation Americans coming of age and becoming more politically active. Where our once more conservative parents might have been more middle of the road Democrats or even Republicans their children (people like me) understand that incrementalism has done us no favors, in fact, in many scenarios hurt our communities. We've implemented policies and practices like 287(g) that separate families, watched housing become more unaffordable, and our student loans debilitate us from advancing in like generations past. That doesn't include the fact that healthcare costs are skyrocketing (nearly 25% of GA07 goes uninsured according to 2017 census data), we're dealing with a climate crisis and wealth and income inequality is at an all-time high."

Feelin' The Bern by Nancy Ohanian