Iran-- Which Way Now, While Trump Is Still Occupying The White House?

An hour before Trump addressed the country yesterday, The Atlantic published a column by David Frum, Americans Aren't Rallying to Trump-- A president who writes off half the country can't expect to garner support from a crisis of his own making. Iran had to do something after Trump assassinated Soleimani but their leaders are smart enough to not do something suicidal. So they launched some noisy missiles at a couple of Iraqi bases housing Americans that didn't really target Americans. "But imagine," suggested Frum, "that Iran had gotten luckier (or unluckier) with its missile aiming. Or that the Iranian regime had chosen-- or still chooses-- a more lethal response to the killing of Qassem Soleimani. Where would we be then?"

The Trump administration and its supporters seem to have hoped for a “rally around the flag” effect from the killing of Soleimani. This did not happen. The fundamental geology of Donald Trump’s presidency remains unchanged: A large majority of Americans do not trust him, do not support him, and will not follow him. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has complained that European allies do not support the Trump administration’s actions. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell laments that Democrats in Congress will not support the president either.

The first poll after the killing of Soleimani shows 53 percent of Americans disapproving of Trump’s handing of Iran, a number similar to what other polling registered in September and October. What has changed is that 39 percent “strongly disapprove” of Trump’s policy—a number up 10 points since before the Soleimani killing. Americans do not want war with Iran, and they do not trust Trump to lead such a war if it erupts.

Trump’s governance itself is legally in question right now. The president has been impeached. Unlike the Clinton impeachment of 1998–99, this process commands the approval of a majority of Americans. On average, more than 50 percent believe the Senate should remove Trump from office. That’s not sufficient to force the Senate to respond, especially not a Senate majority that itself was elected with the support of only a minority of Americans. But it’s certainly sufficient to deprive the president of the legitimacy to lead the nation to war.

The United States finds itself in the dangerous situation of having a president in power but without authority.

He is the least trusted president in the history of polling. Two-thirds of Americans regard him as dishonest. Sixty-one percent say he does not respect democracy.

With the departure of Secretary of Defense James Mattis at the end of 2018, there is no figure left in the administration who does command broad respect from the public, Congress, or American allies-- who can credibly step forward and say, “This time, the president is not lying.”

Even the White House press secretary has given up. Unlike her two predecessors, who lied to the media’s face, the current holder of the office, Stephanie Grisham, has abandoned press briefings entirely.

The president, any president, is both the leader of his party and a representative of the entire nation. As the nation polarizes, it becomes harder and harder to combine those roles. But unlike his predecessors, Trump has never tried to do the second job. Even as he sought support from Democrats in Congress, the president retweeted one of his most provocative supporters equating Democrats in Congress to Iranian terrorists. Former Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley, ever more brazenly campaigning to replace Vice President Mike Pence on the Republican 2020 ticket, gave an interview on Sean Hannity’s radio show in which she said nobody except Democratic Party leaders and presidential candidates mourned the death of Qassem Soleimani. (Meanwhile, one of the president’s strongest supporters in the Senate, Rand Paul, and one of Trump’s favorite TV hosts, Tucker Carlson, actually spoke out in opposition to the strike.)

Trump supporters are trying to re-create the atmosphere of 2003, to claim the high ground of patriotism and defense of the nation. That can never work for them, because at every turn they and the country confront the weird hold Russia’s Vladimir Putin seems to hold over the U.S. president. Trump defenders angrily denounce the facts of the Trump-Putin connection as a “hoax,” but the country does not believe them. As of mid-summer 2019, only 35 percent of voters accepted the president’s claims of “exoneration.” A majority believe that Russia interfered in the 2016 election to help Trump; a plurality believe that Trump colluded with that effort.

A president regarded by so many Americans as Putin’s puppet cannot plausibly wave the flag against domestic opponents.

Trump himself seems to intuit the danger-- which is why he always flinches from foreign-policy confrontations at the last minute, first with North Korea and now with Iran. When you know you’re driving a stolen car, you want to avoid collisions.

But Trump’s supporters in Congress and on TV have not kept up with the times as well as their boss. They imagine it’s still 2003-- or maybe 1969. But that history has passed by. When Fox talkers call on all Americans to unite behind the president, they have to carve out mental exceptions for close to half the country. Not New York State or New York City: President Trump has said he hates them “even more than I should.” Not the state of California, home to one out of every eight Americans: “a disgrace to our country.” Not the city of Chicago: “embarrassing to us as a nation.” Not the city of Baltimore: “a rat and rodent infested mess.” Not the city of Atlanta: “in horrible shape and falling apart.”

Trump has never aspired to the job of president of all the United States. He does not understand the job. He cannot do the job. And now the job needs to be done.

Earlier in the Trump administration, it was said that the president was fortunate to have never encountered a crisis not of his own making. Over three years, however, he has contrived to make a great many crises: a trade war with China, a betrayal in Kurdistan, a diplomatic debacle on the Korean peninsula, the ongoing thralldom of Trump to Putin, and now the approach to war with Iran. National crises become no less dangerous for being the fault of the U.S. president rather than some foreign aggressor. Happily, the Iran crisis is paused, at least for the moment. None of these national self-harms will be resolved, however, until this sham president leaves office.

Just before Trump spoke Congressional Progressive co-chairs Pramila Jayapal and Mark Pocan released a caucus statement calling on Congress to reassert it's constitutional responsibility for declaring war:

The horrific escalation towards war with Iran was devastatingly predictable, brought on by Trump’s reckless military brinksmanship in assassinating General Soleimani and, before that, destroying decades of diplomacy by pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and asserting a ‘maximum pressure’ strategy. Last night’s attacks by Iran were a warning shot, showing clearly that President Trump’s actions have made the United States and the world far less safe than it was one week ago. While we do not yet know the full toll of last night’s attacks, there’s no question this escalation has put our troops and Iraqis in danger-- a traumatic and completely avoidable result of the President’s reckless actions. 
Now, it is even more urgent than ever that Congress act to immediately pull us back from the brink of catastrophe and prevent a completely avoidable war with Iran. To protect American lives and global stability, Congress must reassert our Constitutional authority by passing a strong War Powers Resolution to ensure Congressional authorization for any military action; repealing the 2002 Authorization of Use of Military Force; and ensuring that Congress provides no funds for war with Iran without authorization.

We must not continue down this destructive military path-- we must choose de-escalation and diplomacy. Let’s be clear: If we close the door on diplomacy, that decision will haunt our nation for generations. Further retaliation will not lead to peace-- it will only entangle us in a crisis with no military solution and endanger countless lives.

The American people don’t want another war without end. Congress must act swiftly to end this cycle of violence and pursue peace before it’s too late.

One of the hottest congressional races in the country is for a gerrymandered central Texas seat-- TX-10-- that stretches, incongruously, from Austin to the suburbs of Houston. With no help from the DCCC in 2018, progressive Democrat Mike Siegel nearly beat right-wing Republican incumbent, multimillionaire Michael McCaul. This year the DCCC is panic-stricken that a progressive-- Siegel is running again-- could win a seat in Texas so they worked with EMILY's List to find a Texas version of Jeff Van Drew to run against him. She has had nothing to say about the Iran debacle. Mike sure has-- reminding voters that he's "running to replace a Trump Toadie, Michael McCaul, who fashions himself a 'national security expert' but in reality is just a follower of the Blob. To wit: last night he issued a statement condemning the Iranian missile attack, while days earlier he praised the assassination of Suleimani, but where is the recognition of cause and effect? Trump's escalation with Iran makes the United States, and the world, decidedly less safe, and makes no sense from a tactical perspective. But being a Republican means surrendering objective thinking and rational discourse, so McCaul in practice is just another empty suit. Bigger picture, we need to call out the violation of the War Powers Act and the failure of the drone assassination program. Congress has the power to declare war so that the people's representatives can determine the true public interest. Half of America is at the poverty line or just outside of it; tens of millions lack health insurance; we have a homelessness crisis and a climate crisis and failing public infrastructure. If Congress is going to take action to save American lives, there is a lot we can do with domestic programs that will be far more effective than the assasination of a foreign leader. Which leads me to the drone program: unfortunately, the U.S. populace has become numb to a program that authorizes extrajudicial killings in violation of international law. The killing of Suleimani violates the Fourth Geneva Convention, and is part of a failed foreign policy that prioritizes 'taking out bad guys' over diplomacy. Each time the President orders one of these killings, we create more enemies than we eliminate, and we further undermine any moral standing we have in the world. It will be a long road back, from the United States as a rogue 'judge, jury and executioner' to a member in good standing of the international community. But we must walk this road, not only to advance the cause of peace, but to confront the climate crisis and other global challenges that require the collective participation of every nation."

Jennifer Christie, the progressive candidate for the open seat north of Indianapolis, agreed entirely, noting that "In this moment, Congress must take back the Constitutional power to make decisions about war on behalf of the People. In this moment, we must show leadership by deescalating the rising tensions between Iran and the USA. It’s time to be the adult in the room. In the middle of his impeachment, Trump assassinated Suleimani and we have yet to hear detailed or compelling reasons for his decision to act without consulting Congress nor our allies. An endless war with Iran is not in the interest of the people of America, Iran, nor of the world. It is time for cool heads and forward thinking."

We're just starting to get to know Robin Wilt, the progressive Democrat challenging Rochester New Dem Joe Morelle (NY-25). Morelle's only critique of Trump's assassination of Qassem Soleimani was that Congress was not fully briefed beforehand. Robin believes we need strong moral positions against war, not just a procedural ones. Since Morelle was one of the Democrats to support the NRAA, I asked her how they differ on Trump's moves regarding Iran. "I oppose war with Iran," she responded clearly. "I have a brother who graduated from the U.S. Military Academy West Point in 2002-- the year George W Bush articulated his doctrine of preemptive strike. My brother was later grievously injured in Iraq by an IED and is an amputee. I also have a son who is currently a junior at West Point (Class of ’21). For me, the issue of military adventurism is intensely personal. I believe the best way to support our military is to never put them in harm’s way injudiciously. I oppose the military industrial complex perpetuating war and threatening our national security and troops. I believe we should treat our troops like the valuable resource that they are by using them only as a last resort."

Trump was all hopped up on Adderall when he made his silly address to the nation yesterday. His Regime didn't do any better when they attempted to mollify Congress with closed briefings explaining why they assassinated Qasem Soleimani. On the House side, Virginia Democrat Gerry Connolly called the briefing "sophomoric and utterly unconvincing" and added that he is "utterly unpersuaded" that the assassination was justified. It was no better in the Senate, where arch-conservative Utah Senator Mike Lee (R) was one of many who were angered by the Trumpists' asinine excuse-making. Lee went on Fox News and said the briefing was "probably the worst briefing at least on a military issue I’ve seen" and said that the Trumpist Regime was "insulting and demeaning" the Senate by telling them not to debate merits of taking military action. Fox News cut Lee off and went to a commercial. Rand Paul (R) was just as angry as Lee was and added that using the 2002 AUMF to gin up a war with Iran was bullshit. "I see no way in the world you could logically argue that an authorization to have war with Saddam Hussein has anything to with having war with people currently in Iraq" and said using it to murder Soleimani was "absurd" and an "insult" (to Congress). "Let's have the debate, and let's have some senators stand up," he said. Maybe he should mention it to fellow Kentuckian, Moscow Mitch, who will not permit any debate without Trump's OK.

CNN reported that Senator Paul is criticizing Trumpanzee's actions toward Iran, saying his decision to withdraw from the Iran nuclear agreement and last week's drone strike that killed the country's top military general have made the US less safe. "The Iran agreement wasn't perfect-- and I was a critic of the Iran agreement-- however, I think it was a big mistake to pull out of the Iran agreement. We should have tried to build upon the Iran agreement. We've now killed one of their major generals. I think it is the death of diplomacy and I see no way to get it back started until the revenge of the Iranian people is somehow sated... I hate this. I hate that this is where we are going. I have been someone who has been for engagement, but there was much less killing, there was much less violence after the Iran agreement. In fact, there was a lull, a period in which I think we were headed towards a much more stable situation with Iran, and now I think that's gone. And I think it may be gone for a lifetime... Nobody in their right mind would actually think that would lead to negotiation."