Trump: No Path To Victory... Example: Pennsylvania

Damage Control by Nancy Ohanian

Why have a bunch of centrist assholes suddenly jumped into the Democratic presidential primary? Sure, they recognize Status Quo Joe is a terrible candidate, but each of them is as bad, if not worse. Some of them claim, the Democratic line-up won't win the states needed to kick Trump out of office a year from now. There's not a viable poll that indicates that. Among 2016 Trump states, his job favorability is down since election day in every single one of them and his net favorability is underwater in 13 of them. Trump has no legitimate path to even coming close to winning the electoral college.

• Wisconsin- minus 17
• Michigan- minus 13
• Iowa- minus 12
• Pennsylvania- minus 9
• Ohio- minus 6
• Arizona- minus 4
• Nebraska- minus 4
• North Carolina- minus 3
• Georgia- minus 3
• Utah- minus 3
• Florida- minus 2
• Montana- minus 1
• Alaska- minus 1

I wouldn't count on a negative job approval of minus 1 or 2 or 3 to mean he's going to lose Alaska or Utah. But a negative job approval or minus 14 in Minnesota and minus 18 in New Mexico does mean his bluster about winning over those states is either hubris or stupidity. Can he kiss states like Wisconsin, Michigan, Iowa and Pennsylvania goodbye? Yes, he can-- and he has nowhere to go to make up for those losses.

Let's take a look at the most recent polling data from Pennsylvania, which is not substantively different from any other Pennsylvania polling. This one was done for the Morning Call by Muhlenberg College. This one shows Trump's net favorability at minus 11%-- 43% favorable and 54% unfavorable and his job approval even more underwater-- 56% disapproving and 40% approving. 51% of voters say they agree with the Democrats on the need for impeachment hearings and 49% have already made up their minds that Trump should be impeached. (48% have made up their minds that he should not be impeached.) 57% of Pennsylvania voters say he does not deserve to be reelected and just 42% say he does. The head-to-head matchups are terrible for Trump as well:

• Biden- 52%, Trump- 43%
• Bernie- 50%, Trump- 45%
• Elizabeth- 50%, Trump- 45%

The pollsters also asked an open-ended question: "What is the first word that comes to mind when you think of Donald Trump?" Enjoy:

And all this, even before the on-going developments in the impeachment case. For example, I find it amazing that Roger Stone hasn't been convicted of anything sooner. I wonder why its taken so long. But this morning, a jury convicted him of all 7 felony charges related to Wikileaks and the Trump campaign, including witness tampering, obstruction and lying to Congress, basically charges concerning an attempt to protect Trump. Steve Bannon and Rick Gates both testified against him. CNN: The verdict marks a stunning conclusion to one of the highest-profile prosecutions to emerge from special counsel Robert Mueller's Russia investigation-- a case that began with one of Trump's most vocal supporters arrested during a pre-dawn raid as the special counsel's investigation wound down, and that since then has gradually revealed new information about the Trump campaign's positive reception to foreign interference in the 2016 election. Prosecutors asked the judge to take Stone into custody immediately. They alleged he violated his gag order and communicated with a member of the press last night. Judge Amy Berman Jackson declined, saying she 'will release him on his current conditions pending the sentencing date.'"