In Sleepy, Backward Part Of The Country, People Seriously In Need Of Dental Care Still Back Trump

Mark Green (R-TN)

Yesterday, little known far right freshman Republican backbencher, Mark Green, was on NPR's Here & Now for some reason, talking about Trump and Syria. The congressman from a backward west Tennessee district (where Hillary only scored 28.2% against Trumpanzee) is less unknown now, after saying, "Yeah, I disagree with what he’s doing now, I wish it wasn’t happening, but I still fully support it." In districts like Green's-- the PVI is R+20 and he was elected last year with 66.9% of the vote, winning all 19 counties. Many in Congress are beginning to panic about Trump's already disastrous and sinking poll numbers. The Fox poll this week-- showing that 51% of the countries already convinced that Trump should be impeached and removed-- was a wakeup call for congressional Republicans. As Jonathan Lemire noted in a piece he wrote for the Associated Press yesterday, "Trump has spent his time in office trying to bend the conventions of the American presidency to his will. Now he appears to be trying to override a core principle of democracy: that no one is above the law. Faced with an impeachment inquiry, Trump has openly defied the core constructs of the Constitution. He chafes at the idea of co-equal branches of government and rejects the House’s right to investigate him. He has deployed a convoluted logic in which he has declared that the courts can’t investigate him because as president he cannot be charged with a crime but also that Congress cannot impeach him because its inquiry is politically illegitimate."

Beyond Fox, the latest polls from Ipsos, YouGov, Quinnipiac and Marist all show support for dumping Trump rising. The Marist poll is the most recent and it shows that approval of the impeachment inquiry is now 52%, mostly because independent votes have had it with Trump and his antics. 54% of independents now approve of the impeachment proceedings, a huge swing since last September when only 44% of independent backed impeachment hearings. Yesterday, public radio listeners in Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas and other Trump bastions heard that "Republicans are dug in against the impeachment inquiry with nearly 9 in 10 disapproving of it. Two-thirds also say they would be less likely to vote for their representative from Congress if that lawmaker votes to impeach Trump. Despite the lack of enthusiasm for impeachment, Americans clearly don't approve of Trump's recent behavior, don't think he shares Americans' moral values and are pessimistic about the direction the country is headed. For example, 68% say it's not acceptable to ask a foreign country's leader for help investigating a potential political opponent; that includes 40% of Republicans. And 61% say Trump does not share the moral values most Americans try to live by; and just 35% say the country is headed in the right direction... Other answers in the survey should continue to raise red flags for the president and his reelection campaign team, including that 52% say they will definitely vote against Trump in 2020, and just 42% approve of the job the president is doing."

Asked if he would vote to impeach Trump if he were still in Congress, former Congressman Carlos Curbelo (R-FL) said "I would certainly be supporting the inquiry. I think it is important to see [the outcome of] the inquiry before reaching a decision on articles of impeachment-- and I think that applies to Democrats as well... Republicans are coming to the realization that this is different than the Mueller probe. This is a lot more radioactive. They are coming to terms with the fact that there is real political risk here for members in swing states and swing districts." That leaves out members like Green. He could lose every Democratic vote and every independent vote-- he won't-- and still be reelected. If the anti-Trump tsunami wipes out 50 or 60 Republican seats, which looks more and more possible by the day, Green and others from politically super-backward districts like his will still be reelected with big margins.

The most recent Tracking Trump survey shows there are just 9 states that still stand strongly with Trump in the way Green said he does-- and Tennessee is one of them. These are the AlwaysTrump states with their net approval numbers:

• Alabama +22%
• Mississippi +21%
• Idaho +20%
• West Virginia +20%
• Wyoming +16%
• Louisiana +15%
• Kentucky +15%
• Tennessee +13%
• Oklahoma +11%

Those are the only states left where Trump doesn't have to campaign and where Republicans can feel safe supporting him. Traditionally safe Republican states that are less safe for Trump and more scary for GOP Congress members include states where the GOP-- and individual candidates-- are going to have to spend millions of dollars to hang on:

• Ohio- minus 5%
• Arizona- minus 4%
• North Carolina- minus 3%
• Montana- minus 3%
• Utah- minus 2%
• Florida- minus 2%
• Nebraska- minus 2%
• Georgia- plus 1%
• Alaska- plus 1%
• Texas- plus 2%
• Indiana- plus 2%

These numbers are all from September, before the Ukraine scandal and the betrayal of the Kurds began shaking some GOP resolve to stick with Trump. Writing for the Associated Press yesterday, Nick Riccardi filed a report that demonstrates why all these numbers-- maybe not in Green's district but everywhere else-- are likely to continue going down.

A simple yes-or-no question keeps tripping up Senate Republicans: Should the president ask foreign countries to investigate political rivals?

A month ago the question was a legal and constitutional no-brainer. It’s illegal to accept foreign help in a political campaign, an action that also raises questions about U.S. sovereignty. But President Donald Trump last week forcefully defended his right to do so as he publicly called on both China and Ukraine to investigate former Vice President Joe Biden and Biden’s son, Hunter. A private request for Ukraine to launch a probe triggered an impeachment inquiry in the Democratic-controlled House of Representatives.

On Thursday, two Republican senators-- Joni Ernst of Iowa and Cory Gardner of Colorado-- repeatedly refused to answer reporters’ questions on whether a president should make such a request of a rival power. “I don’t know that we have that information in front of us,” Ernst said in Iowa, even though the president made the request in front of cameras on the White House lawn.

In Denver, Gardner likewise wouldn’t answer reporters’ variations on the question 12 separate times before an appearance with the Colorado Chamber of Commerce. Like Ernst, he tried to punt to the Senate Intelligence Committee, which is investigating the circumstances around Trump’s private call with Ukraine. “It’s an answer that you get from a very serious investigation,” Gardner told reporters when asked about the appropriateness of the president’s public comments.

The hesitance of the two senators, who are both up for re-election next year in competitive states, contrasted with the stances of two Republicans not facing the voters anytime soon. On Wednesday, Sen. Lamar Alexander of Tennessee, who is retiring next year, said in a statement that it was “inappropriate” for Trump to make his request. But, Alexander added, impeachment would be a “mistake.”

Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio, who was easily re-elected in 2016, told reporters on Tuesday that Trump’s request was “wrong” but argued it isn’t an impeachable offense.

Ari Fleischer, a former spokesman for President George W. Bush, who has often defended Trump, tweeted Thursday: “Trump doesn’t hide what he does. But it’s still wrong for Presidents and candidates to ask foreign governments to get involved in our elections.”

In contrast, Ernst and Gardner seemed to follow a pattern set by fellow Republican Arizona Sen. Martha McSally-- also a top Democratic target next year. On Monday, McSally also wouldn’t answer whether the president can ask for overseas help, instead referring to the Senate Intelligence Committee probe and taking swipes at House Democrats.

...The Colorado senator’s repeated dodging of the question may have made for awkward television, but it seemed to make one important viewer happy. Trump liked a tweet from a reporter describing Gardner’s refusal to discuss the appropriateness of the president’s requests.

Last night, Governor Larry Hogan (R-MD) was on PBS’ Firing Line where he said of the impeachment inquiry, "I think we do need an inquiry because we have to get to the bottom of it. I’m not ready to say I support impeachment and the removal of the president, but I do think we should have an impeachment inquiry." He's the third Republican governor to express those sentiments, following Phil Scott (R-VT) and Charlie Baker (R-MA). All those states are very far from Clarksville, Lawrenceburg and Bolivar in Mark Green's district.