Are There Any Districts With Democratic Incumbents Where Trump Will Have Coattails?

There are 22 congressional districts that Trump won in 2016 that turned around and elected a non-incumbent Democrat two years later. None of the 7 California freshmen are included:

• CA-10- Josh Harder (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 48.5% to 45.5%
• CA-21- TJ Cox (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 55.2% to 39.7%
• CA-25- Katie Hill (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 50.3% to 43.6% [see below]
• CA-39- Gil Cisneros (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 51.5% to 42.9%
• CA-45- Katie Porter (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 49.8% to 44.4%
• CA-48- Harley Rouda (F)-- Hillary beat Trump 47.9% to 46.2%
• CA-49- Mike Levin (B)-- Hillary beat Trump 50.7% to 43.2%

Unfortunately most of the Democratic candidates were picked by the DCCC and are weak, flawed and are open to defeat in a non-wave cycle. Each candidate's ProgressivePunch score follows their name. (Katie Porter, who beat the terrible DCCC preferred candidate, is an exception and has been a much better member of Congress than the others.) My guess is that, with the exception of scandal-rocked Katie Hill, they will all be returned to Congress in 2020, largely because of Trump's presence at the top of the ticket. 2022 could proven deadly for the weakest of them, especially Cisneros, Rouda and Harder. The only 2020 rematch with a former incumbent-- at least scheduled so far-- is between Cox and David Valadao.

The bigger problem for Democrats, of course, are the 22 seats in districts Trump won. Most of the new Democratic incumbents are weak and uninspiring. Chosen by the DCCC to appeal to Republicans, few of them can get much positive enthusiasm from the Democratic base and, of course, they don't actually appeal to Republicans, just to imaginary centrists who don't exist in the real world. Most of them are likely to be safe next year with Trump leading the Republican change, even though this were Trump 2016 districts and anti-Trump 2018 districts,

• GA-06- Lucy McBath (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.3% to 46.8%
• IA-01- Abby Finkenauer (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.7% to 45.2%
• IA-03- Cindy Axne (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.5% to 45.0%
• IL-14- Lauren Underwood (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.7% to 44.8%
• ME-02- Jared Golden (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 51.4% to 41.1%
• MI-08- Elissa Slotkin (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 50.6% to 43.9%
• MI-11- Haley Stevens (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 49.7% to 45.3%
• MN-02- Angie Craig (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 46.5% to 45.3%
• NH-01- Chris Pappas (B)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.2% to 46.6%
• NJ-02- Jeff Van Drew (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 50.6% to 46.0%
• NJ-03- Andy Kim (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 51.4% to 45.2%
• NJ-11- Mikie Sherrill (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.8% to 47.9%
• NM-02- Xochitl Torres Small (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 50.1% to 39.9%
• NV-03- Susie Lee (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 47.5% to 46.5%
• NY-11- Max Rose (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 53.6% to 43.8%
• NY-19- Antonio Delgado (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 50.8% to 44.0%
• NY-22- Anthony Brindisi (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 54.8% to 39.3%
• OK-05- Kendra Horn (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 53.2% to 39.8%
• SC-01- Joe Cunningham (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 53.5% to 40.4%
• UT-04- Ben McAdams (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 39.1% to 32.4%
• VA-02- Elaine Luria (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 48.8% to 45.4%
• VA-07- Abigail Spanberger (F)-- Trump beat Hillary 50.5% to 44.0%

Writing for Politico Sunday, Sarah Ferris and Ally Mutnick note that ousted Republicans are plotting rematches as impeachment revs up and that former GOP lawmakers think having Trump on the ballot is their ticket back to the House, particularly during the polarizing impeachment debate." Keep in mind, that although nationally impeachment numbers are high and growing, in some districts won by Trump in 2016, the pro-impeachment numbers are lower. Ferris and Mutnick start with NY-22, where an especially bad far right extremist, Claudia Tenney, lost her seat to a really bad conservative Democrat, Blue Dog piece of crap Anthony Brindisi. He beat her last year 127,715 (50.9%) to 123,242 (49.1%). Brindisi won in the two biggest counties-- Oneida and Broome, where voters are looking for a real Democrat, not a Republican-lite Democrat. Brindisi is about as far right as you can go without being an actual Republican. He has the worst voting record of any Democrat in the House, tied with fellow Blue Dogs Joe Cunningham and Jeff Van Drew at 20.00%, which is a worse score than Republican John Katko (in the district next door), in fact worse than 3 Republicans and former Republican, now Independent Justin Amash (32.86).

[W]ith Trump back on the ballot in 2020, Tenney and her supporters see a chance to make her comeback.

“I think it’s going to be a good year,” Tenney said in an interview. “In a presidential year, I think we’ll be able to get some of those gains back.”

And she’s not the only one. A series of ex-Republican lawmakers who lost narrowly in Trump strongholds in 2018 are plotting rematches next year with dreams of riding on the president’s coattails.

Particularly amid an impeachment debate that has polarized the country, the former lawmakers think a juiced-up Trump turnout will lift them past their Democratic opponents and potentially help Republicans win back the House.

Former GOP Rep. David Young is running against freshman Democrat Cindy Axne in a district that includes Des Moines, Iowa-- a repeat of the tight 2018 race. Former GOP Rep. Karen Handel is seeking a rematch against Rep. Lucy McBath, a Democrat representing suburban Atlanta.

Another former Republican congressman, Rod Blum, could be eyeing a challenge to freshman Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer in northeast Iowa; he protested outside Finkenauer’s office this month at a Trump campaign-sponsored event to condemn impeachment. And former Republican Rep. Mike Bishop has yet to publicly rule out a run against Democrat Elissa Slotkin in Michigan.

“It was a tough year, just not a great environment for Republicans,” Tenney said of 2018. “I think the environment now is different.”

But Tenney and other the congressional alumni may not be able to count on Trump. His approval ratings are near historic lows for presidents heading into a second term, and freshman Democrats have worked hard to win over independents and moderate Republicans.

Public support is also growing for impeachment, with 45 percent of independents now backing it, compared to 32 opposed, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.

Still, Trump holds a grip over the Republican base that seems unshakable, even amid the ongoing investigation into alleged efforts by the president to withhold military aid unless Ukraine publicly investigated his political rivals.

Trump’s most ardent supporters have already begun organizing in Brindisi’s district, more than a year out from the next election. Pro-Trump groups staged protests outside the freshman Democrat’s office and at some of his public events-- including a town hall here in October-- to rally local support in New York’s 22nd Congressional District.

Many of those who have picketed, including Mount Vernon, N.Y. resident Gilda Ward, have focused squarely on Democrats’ impeachment push. And it doesn’t matter to them that Brindisi, one of the most vulnerable freshmen, remains one of seven holdouts in his caucus who oppose the impeachment inquiry.

If he did come out in favor, Ward predicts, “It would be a death knell.”

“I am totally opposed to any kind of impeachment,” she said in an interview after attending a Brindisi town hall. “It really bothers me, and it bothers many of us who voted for Trump.”

Tenney-- an enthusiastic Trump supporter who appeared alongside the president and his family at campaign events in 2018-- plans to once again embrace the president. The former congresswoman said that since announcing her campaign in late September, she’s gotten calls from Republican friends who say Trump is happy she’s running again.

Brindisi’s campaign is eager to zero in on his House opponent and avoid the presidential politics.

“This district has long turned the page on Claudia Tenney, who delivered for late night TV more than she ever did our district,” said Luke Jackson, a Brindisi campaign spokesperson.

Republicans are betting that if Trump remains popular with the GOP base, he could significantly ramp up turnout-- clawing back seats that were lost in the 2018 wipeout.

That includes the district where Tenney and Brindisi will battle it out next year. Trump won nearly 160,000 votes in the district in 2016. Turnout plummeted two years later when Tenney got less than 124,000 votes.

GOP campaign operatives are looking at the same math for Trump-backed districts across the country that are now held by Democrats.

Young said in an interview he is working to find Trump voters who stayed home in 2018 through a “data deep dive” as he plans his rematch against Axne. He added that he senses an energy from voters in his Des Moines-based district that are frustrated by Democrats’ “obsession with trying to remove the president.”

Trump won nearly 193,000 votes in Iowa's 3rd District in 2016. Young won just under 168,000 when he lost to Axne by 2 points two years later. Activists on both sides are motivated, Young said, but he argued Democrats neared their high-water mark in 2018. Axne came close to matching Hillary Clinton's 2016 vote total but Young won far fewer votes than Trump.

“In November 2018, the Democrats had high voter turnout, almost presidential levels,” Young said. “I think to some extent they may have peaked or are getting close to peaking, but Republicans have so much more room to grow.”

In the midterms, dozens of Democratic candidates outperformed Clinton in their districts. But it’s not clear if they achieved those margins because Trump voters stayed home. Those candidates likely owe their victories in part to two other factors: their ability to persuade Trump voters to back a Democrat for Congress as well as their skill at turning out Democratic voters who typically sit out the midterms.

Rob Simms, a top strategist for Handel, who is seeking a rematch with McBath in suburban Atlanta, blames her loss on high Democratic turnout caused by Democrat Stacey Abram's narrow loss for governor.

“The Democrats, really the Abrams campaign, did a tremendous job at bringing out voters who would not typically vote in an off year elections,” said Simms, a former executive director of the National Republican Congressional Committee. Georgia will be more of a battleground in 2020, he said, and Republicans will be ready.

But particularly in suburban districts with highly-educated voters like Georgia's 6th, the momentum is moving away from the GOP and there may be a large chunk of persuadable voters up for grabs. Mitt Romney won the seat by 24 points in 2012 but Trump carried it by 1 point.

Fundraising appears to be an early advantage for McBath, too. The Georgia Democrat outraised Handel nearly 2 to 1 in the last quarter, and has a fundraising war chest of $1.3 million, compared to Handel’s roughly $630,000. Handel also has to clear a GOP primary before she can challenge McBath again.

Meanwhile, few ousted GOP lawmakers seem eager to try again in districts that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. (Former California Republican David Valadao is a rare exception, as he tries to reclaim his Central Valley-based district that Trump lost by 15 points.)

Two Republicans who once represented suburban districts are running again in different, more GOP-friendly spots, an indication that they still view the climate as unfavorable in their old seats.

Republican Pete Sessions who lost a Dallas-area district is now running 100 miles south in Waco. And Darrell Issa, who retired in 2018 from a Clinton-won seat, is running in a neighboring San Diego district held by embattled GOP Rep. Duncan Hunter.

Still, Republican strategists see a path back to the House majority through the 31 Democratic-held seats that Trump won in 2016.

“The dynamics in ’20 are going to be much different,” Simms said of GOP chances in suburban Georgia. “We have an incumbent president. We have an incumbent senator who’s going to be on top of the ticket. Their campaigns are already organized and functioning and working in the state today.”

Tenney is not intelligent and made a big mistake calling Brindisi a leftist; she's doing the same thing again

I spoke with an old friend who's active in the Broome County Democratic Party, which was Brindisi's best county in 2018 and performed at a solid D+13 level for him. The county voted to reelect Kirsten Gillibrand as well, but turned against Andrew Cuomo, who lost to a little known Republican candidate, Mark Molinaro. Molinaro only scored 36.2% statewide but managed to beat Cuomo 50.7% to 43.6% in Broome. My friend pointed to Cuomo-hatred as a place where Brindisi is heading. "People here were eager to defeat Trump and Tenney last year. No one I know cared who the Democrat was. Brindisi represented an Assembly district far from here and few people knew how conservative he was; Tenney, of course, tried to paint him as a socialist. Now people are disappointed in Brindisi's conservatism and his lack of political courage. He may win next year because Democrats will be out in force to vote against Trump. But when Trump isn't on the ticket, he'll be in trouble." So, whose perspective is right, the Broome County party official or crackpot and obviously mentally ill Gilda Ward from Mt. Vernon?

UPDATE: Katie Hill

And if that isn't bad enough, look who already is getting ready to toss his Russian sailor's cap into the race, a genuine Trump jailbird/coffee-boy: