Virginia Elections-- Early Voting Is... Now-- Will Trump Toxicity Help Flip Both Houses?

Most bigoted smear campaign of the year in being run by Republican Richard Stuart (l) against Qasim Rashid (r)

-by Fergie Reid, Jr.

As November 5th-- Election Day-- approaches in Virginia, Kentucky, Mississippi, Louisiana, and New Jersey, Virginia Democrats can flip their General Assembly by re-electing all of their (D) House and Senate incumbents, and by winning a minimum of 2 Republican HDs and 1 Republican Senate district.

But, we don’t want "minimums"; we’re playing for "maximums," right? Virginia Dems are challenging 43 GOP delegates and 17 GOP senators. The "really smart," highly paid Democratic Party consultants-- similar to the Oracles who brought you President Hillary and the reelection of Florida Senator Bill Nelson, etc.-- have focused on the 8 -10 House districts and 4 - 6 Senate districts, which the "consensus-- common wisdom-- group think committee" has deemed, "the most flippable." Remember how brilliantly they decided now-Delegate Lee Carter could never flip the 50th district, ignoring his race... until he was being sworn in?

This kind of "strategery" is... soooooo frustrating; let me count the ways:

• It’s anti-WAVE generating - i.e., A WAVE MITIGATOR;
• it suppresses activist energy;
• it suppresses turnout;
• it depresses rural party building efforts;
• you get the idea: it’s bad, stupid, asinine, idiotic, timid, passive...

GO BIG, OR GO HOME.

8 Virginia Senate districts are super-"flippable." 5 additional Virginia Senate districts are ripe to significantly over perform-- and if not flip this cycle... hey there is another one too, for long term planners. 1 of these 5 is arguably the most important and impactful race of this 2019 Va. cycle: U.S. Army Colonel Herb Jones (D) vs. Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment (R).

Additionally, 4 very rural Republican senators are being challenged by courageous Democratic team players; that totals 17 "challenger" races.

The "Received Wisdom"

Order of “Flippability” is as follows:

The “A” Group:

#1. Open - SD 13- John Bell (D) v. (this one is a formality only) - Geary Higgin (R)
#2. SD 10- Ghazala Hashmi (D) v. Senator Glen Sturtevant (R)
#3. Open- SD 7- Cheryl Turpin (D) v. Jen Kiggans (R)
#4. SD 12- Debra Rodman (D) v. Senator Siobhan Dunnavant (R)
#5. SD 8- Missy Cotter Smasal (D) v. Senator Bill DeSteph (R)
#6. SD 11- Amanda Pohl (D) v. Senator Amanda Chase (R)
#7. SD 17- Amy Laufer (D) v. Senator Bryce Reeves (R)
#8. SD 28 - Qasim Rashid (D) v. Senator Richard Stuart (R)

The “B” Group:

#9. SD 3- Herb Jones (D) v. Senate Majority Leader Tommy Norment (R)
#10. SD 27- Ronnie Ross (D) v. Jill Vogel (R)
#11. SD 15- Virginia Smith (D) v. Senator Frank Ruff (R)
#12. SD 19- Flo Ketner (D) v. Senator Dave Suetterlein (R)
#13. - SD 4- Stan Scott (D) v. Senator Ryan McDougle (R)


The “C” Group:

#14. SD 24- Annette Hyde (D) v. Senator Emmett Hanger (R)
#15. SD 26- April Moore (D) v. Senator Mark Obenshain (R)
#16. SD 14- Becky Raveson (D) v. Senator John Cosgrove (R)
#17. SD 22- Dakota Claytor (D) v. Senator Mark Peake (R)

All of these people deserve our heartfelt thanks and support, for doing the hard work of candidacy. Unfortunately, only Missy Cotter Smasal, Amanda Pohl and Amy Laufer get focused attention from the Democratic Senate Caucus, the State Party, and the "Donor Class." DWT and Blue America have endorsed, and are solidly supporting Herb Jones and Qasim Rashid.

A wave election will require a big turnout. A big turnout will be generated by sharing the wonderful stories of all seventeen of these brave candidates-- whipping up the grassroots supporters in each district-- including the underlying HD, BoS, School Board, Soil & Water, and Constitutional Office campaigns therein. It’s a team sport. Play like a team. Silos are for grain, not campaigns.

A 60 - 40 Democratic House Majority is very possible. A 28 - 12 Democratic Senate Majority is achievable. A very big turnout is absolutely necessary to reach these goals. Election Day is November 5th. The Virginia voter registration deadline is October 15th. Early voting has begun. One vote matters. Ask Shelly Simond (HD 94); in 2017 she lost by 0 votes.