As Trump Becomes Increasingly Toxic Among Independent Voters, GOP Incumbents Will Feel The Pressure To Separate Themselves From Trump

Mark Amodei (R-NV) desperately wants to change the backdrop

Lately, Eli Stokols has been doing some excellent reporting for the virtually moribund L.A. Times. I hope it's enough to save the paper from oblivion. It looks like nothing will save the GOP from oblivion, though-- at least not in the short term. In his latest, Stokol, noted that "Although Republican support in Congress appears solid, that firewall could falter if damaging new revelations emerge or if lawmakers find public support crumbling back in their districts. Congress went on recess Friday for two weeks and some lawmakers planned to hold town halls to gauge constituents’ views on impeachment." Republicans whose districts have large independent voting blocs will find it hard to stick with Trump. House members where Republicans can't win without significant support from independent voters are already under increasing pressure. A few examples of incumbents who have decided to run for reelection but who could easily be dragged down by Trump:

• John Katko (NY)
• Brian Fitzpatrick (PA)
• Don Bacon (NE)
• Rodney Davis (IL)
• Mario Diaz-Balart (FL)
• Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA)
• Steve Chabot (OH)
• Fred Upton (MI)
• Michael Turner (OH)
• Mark Amodei (NV)
• Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA)
• Michael McCaul (TX)
• Scott Perry (PA)
• Dan Crenshaw (TX)
• Chip Roy (TX)
• Ann Wagner (MO)
• Bryan Steil (WI)
• Peter King (NY)
• Ross Spano (FL)
• George Holding (NC)
• Troy Balderson (OH)
• Jim Hegedorn (MN)
• Brian Mast (FL)
• Denver Riggleman (VA)
• Ted Budd (NC)
• John Carter (TX)
• Ron Wittman (VA)
• David Joyce (OH)
• Vern Buchanan (FL)
• Elise Stefanik (NY)
• Chris Smith (NJ)
• Lee Zeldin (NY)

That's 32 districts held by Republicans-- and not counting districts where incumbents have already announced that they're bailing-- where there are too many independent voters for Republicans to win if the revelations about Trump's criminal and treasonous activities stay in the headlines and on TV and radio. The Mooch explained to Stokols why it will continue to fester: "The superficial support for this guy is wearing thin." Let me give you a good example of what's happening outside of DC. A recent poll in NE-02-- Omaha and surrounding communities-- puts progressive challenger Kara Eastman up against Trump Republican Don Bacon and it shows the extent to which Trump's standing is hurting Trump enablers among independents. Donald J. Trump is underwater in NE-02 46-53%, and Donald J. Bacon is losing to Kara among independents 45-53%. Neither a Democrat nor a Republican is ever going to win this district without independent support; that's just the way it is.

And a top Capitol staffer for a Republican senator told Stokol that "At this point, [Trump] could be caught walking out of a Federal Reserve bank with two giant sacks of money in his hands and no Republican would vote to impeach him for grand larceny. Our voters want two things from their congressmen: [dumping] on the media and blindly defending the president. That’s what being a Republican has come to." And that's the kind of thing independent voters absolutely detest and why the GOP is going to suffer massive losses in Congress next year.

Already one conservative Republican member, Mark Amodei, who represents Reno, Carson City and the Tahoe area-- where Democrats and independents from Northern California have been flocking-- has gone on the record as favoring an official impeachment hearing. He's the first, and so far only, Republican to do so-- and he's the last federal Republican elected official in Nevada. His district's R+7 PVI is completely out of date. Trump beat Hillary there but Trump only garnered 52.0%. Washoe County is where almost all Amodei's voters live. Last year, in the Senate race, a less-than-mediocre, completely worthless Democrat, Jacky Rosen, ousted Republican incumbent Dean Heller and won Washoe County 49.8% to 46.2%. Democrat Steve Sisolak beat better-known Republican Adam Laxalt for the governorship by winning Washoe 48.7% to 46.4% and although Amodei himself won Washoe, the county only performed as an R+2 for him. A couple of points slippage and he's toast. Last year his Democratic opponent, Clint Koble, didn't get as much as a nod or a nickel from the DCCC and raised only $152,389 compared to Amodei's $1,207,363. Koble is running again this cycle and his overly cautious approach is unlikely to help him oust Amodei... something only Trump could do. But Amodei is quite aware that it actually is something Trump could do.

Montana state Rep. Tom Winter ran and won a race in the western part of his state, right up against Idaho, that voted 11 points for Trump. Nearly half of the voters there identify as Independent. "When you actually talk to the people that are suspicious of both parties they’re clearly unhappy with what’s been going on these last three years," Tom, who's running for Congress, told us today. "Folks have been dealing with the effects of our broken politics for quite some time. They thought they were voting to shake up a system that wasn’t working for them. Now they just want to be able to wake up and not see the world on fire. And it wouldn’t hurt to tell them how you’re going to lower their healthcare costs too."