Wednesday, July 03, 2019

John Kasich's Girlfriend Is In A Coma-- And It's Serious... Do You Really Think She'll Pull Though?

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Yesterday, the Washington Post published an interview with former Ohio Governor-- and #NeverTrumper-- John Kasich, about how his party has virtually disintegrated, accepting Trumpets fascism in return for careerism and ome semblance of power. David Montgomery asked him i the GOP can still be a home for mainstream conservatives like himself if there's no path for challenging Trump from people like him and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. "What does that say about the Republican Party?"

Kasich responded that he thinks "this is sort of a temporary deal. I think that the party is historically concerned about debt. They’re concerned about having free and open trade. They’re concerned about welcoming immigrants into the country. And I think that the Republican Party is stumbling around because there have been no new really exciting ideas coming out of the Republican Party for a number of years. They keep going back to Reagan. Well, I knew Reagan-- it was 100 hundred years ago. They don’t focus on the issue of workforce training, of dramatic reforms in education, the need to address climate change-- it’s like we’re sunk. And then you add where the party is right now. I don’t even recognize it. It’s Luddite in a way. I mean, it’s unbelievable. I think members of the Republican Party are in a coma right now, is what I think. And at some point they’ll wake up and say, What’s happened? And then we’re going to tell them, and they’re going to go, Really?
Montgomery: Is it a coma because of their allegiance to President Trump?

Kasich: There’s a tribal instinct, and a willingness to only absorb that that supports what you currently think. Anything that is dissonant information should be rejected. And I think it’s true for both political parties, to be honest with you. I think that we live in a siloed, tribal world right now.

Montgomery: When you were in the Congress, you voted to impeach Bill Clinton. And I was wondering how the current case that some Democrats would make against Trump compares to that situation?

Kasich: I think it’s two different things. Look, that was a very difficult time for us, but it involved, you know, a grand jury and those kinds of things. I was not a main participant in that, I just wasn’t. It was a difficult decision for me. In terms of what they should do now, the country doesn’t want this man to be impeached. One thing the Democrats have to be careful of is that they’re not blinded by hatred. I’m not telling you that they don’t have a legitimate case to investigate, but some of them are bordering on really, you know, deep-seated anger, which is never a good thing.


Sound like a very serious guy to you? Not to me... at least not as serious as Morrissey. And Trump always laughed at him-- other that time he offered him the vice presidency. Trump isn't faring all that well lately. Opinion polls show that most Americans think he's doing a bad job. Even in swing states and red states he needs to win if he's to have any chance of being reelected, he's underwater with voters. This morning a series of state polls from Morning Consult had him with higher disapprovals that approvals in 9 out of 10 states he won in 2016:
New Hampshire: 37% approval, 60% disapproval (-23 net approval)
Michigan: 40% approval, 55% disapproval (-15)
Wisconsin: 42% approval, 56% disapproval (-14)
Iowa: 42% approval, 55% disapproval (-13)
Pennsylvania 44% approval, 53% disapproval (-9)
Arizona: 45% approval, 52% disapproval (-7)
Ohio: 45% approval, 51% disapproval (-6)
North Carolina: 47% approval, 50% disapproval (-3)
Florida: 47% approval, 50% disapproval (-3)
Indiana: 49% approval, 48% disapproval (+1)
Other traditionally red states where his approval is way too close for comfort include Georgia (even), Missouri (1), Nebraska (1), Kansas (2), Utah (2), Alaska (3) and Texas (4).

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4 Comments:

At 11:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sure, Trump isn't polling well. But I don't see that the democraps are worthy of taking their places. What have they done with the past 40 years except kow-tow to Washington Republicans?

I was watching George Galloway's new MOATS episode, and he had on a British political analyst who had a fair amount to say about the American presidential election. He has Trump winning re-election, especially if Biden is the nominee. Only Warren and Harris stand any chance of defeating Trump (in his opinion - in my opinion Harris is wearing the bull's eye right now - and there is plenty to hit).

Matt Taibbi was interviewed by The Hill, and he has the electorate tired of identity politics, hating the debate format, and thinking the media useless. We heard similar things in 2016 about Hillary and the media.

The signs are leading to another Trump win - and Kasich is in position to offer himself as the sane and rational candidate (not if I can help it!). I watch for him to make his move before too much longer. He wants in. I wish I could say that this isn't a good time for him. It certainly is. Many people will feel that there isn't anyone else. Kasich will take advantage of this condition and make a run for the White House.

 
At 6:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Dems select either of the two (more or less) progressive candidates (Sanders or Warren), we can probably expect a Howard Schultz-type "sane centrist" to run in hope of sabotaging that candidate - if someone from what I generally describe as "the bullshit wing" of the party (which, sadly, is about 60-70 percent of elected Democrats at this point) gets the nomination, then a "sane" conservative may mount a run in the hopes of sabotaging Trump's re-election.

Polls are questionable - I suspect a significant number of people are (rightfully) leery about admitting they support Trump to anyone outside of family and close friends.

 
At 8:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Biden gets the nomination who need Kasich? They are one and the same.

 
At 1:01 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kasich is wrong about the coma. Trump's GOP is the same GOP borne out of the southern strategy. Stylistically it's a lot less subtle, but substantively, the differences are more of degree than kind on most issues. e.g. trade policy being one area where Trump is largely out of step with the party elites, but even that is still mostly rhetorical. He ran against NAFTA, but then re-negotiated a deal that is basically 95% NAFTA. The problem is less with the end game and more with how he gets there -- the general incompetence.

Unlike some above, I don't really fear the prospect of a Schultz third party run. For Bernie in particular, it would offer a perfect contrast for the kind of problems he's been highlighting over the course of his entire political career. e.g. a candidate who has been railing against the billionaire class, matched up against two billionaire opponents. It's hard to know the future, of course -- I still think Bernie's biggest challenge is just getting the party nomination; and 2020 could hinge on factors that we don't see yet related to the economy or other factors.

Trump could definitely win re-election, but I don't think it's the most likely scenario. He's a guy who barely won in 2016 thanks to electoral college math. During the general election he ran as a far-right conservative contra George W. Bush in 2000 and his "compassionate conservatism" branding. Bush was able to run a base election in 2004, because he ran as a unity candidate in 2000. Same story with Obama in 2008 and 2012 (first election, as a national unity/change candidate, re-election was just about holding onto enough of the original coalition to beat Romney). Trump has boxed himself in politically. He has narrowed his appeal. For soft-support that might have voted for him in the hopes of an economic revival of domestic manufacturing and coal, his administration has been a total failure. The only people who have really gotten what they wanted are bigots and the super-rich -- and even some of the super-rich aren't entirely comfortable with Trump's erratic behavior and his style.

Elections are also administered at the state level, and unlike 2016, there's a clear path through Wisconsin, Michigan, PA, and Iowa this time. I don't think Bernie will necessarily play as well in AZ or Florida as a more centrist Dem might, but he's probably the strongest candidate to beat Trump in the upper midwest. Other candidates may have a less appeal in the upper midwest, but may be able to cobble together an AZ/FL map.

 

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