One Term (Fake) President?

The Dismantling Of American Democracy by Nancy Ohanian

All these polls came out in the last few days showing both Bernie and Biden beating Trump in 2020 match-ups. Tuesday's Quinnipiac poll showed virtually everyone beating Trump-- Biden by 13, Bernie by 9, Harris by 8, Warren by 7, even McKensey Pete and Booker by 5 points each! And then yesterday Politico released a poll by Morning Consult that shows Biden up over Trump by 11 points and Bernie up over Trump by 10 points. The poll shows Trump narrowly beating Elizabeth Warren (1 point) and Kamala Harris (3 points) and more substantially beating Cory , Beto and Pete (4 points each).

That Morning Consult poll also shows that 49% of voters say that if the election were held today they would not vote for Trump, regardless of who the Democrat is opposing him. At that point, if what you care about most of allis that Trump is defeated, you have to ask yourself if it's worth the extra single point to vote for a nothing, status quo ante candidate like Biden instead of a transformative candidate like Bernie.

Josh Kraushaar, National Journal's Oracle of Conventional Wisdom and institutional Beltway "moderation," wrote yesterday that Trump is going to be a one-term president. "Democrats," he wrote, "still have so much post-traumatic stress from the last presidential campaign that they’re unable to recognize the obvious: President Trump is a serious underdog for reelection. It’s remarkable to see the contortions that otherwise-savvy politicians, operatives, and analysts take in order to avoid this reality. President Obama’s former press secretary, Ben LaBolt, fretted in The Atlantic that Trump’s campaign is out-strategizing its Democratic opposition. Obama auto czar Steve Rattner warned in the New York Times that leading economic models predict a Trump landslide."

Talk to any Iowa or New Hampshire voter sampling the 23-candidate field, and they’ll obsess over the electability of certain candidates when matched against President Trump. Speaker Nancy Pelosi won’t initiate impeachment hearings, out of fear that an aggressive approach will suddenly transform Trump into a sympathetic figure.

The reality? Trump is in the weakest political shape of any sitting president since George H.W. Bush. Despite a historically strong economy, his job approval ratings are still badly underwater. He’s never hit 50 percent job approval in any reputable national poll throughout his presidency. At least 40 percent of voters are fired up to vote against him, no matter what happens in the next year. He’s already lost ground with the working-class voters who defected from the Democrats to support him in 2016, with his favorability rating dropping 19 points among that critical Obama-Trump constituency in the last two years.

The latest wave of polling is even more alarming for Trump. His campaign’s own internal polling reportedly shows him trailing in many of the must-win battleground states. A new Quinnipiac survey shows Trump trailing all six Democrats tested against him; what's more, he couldn’t win more than 42 percent of the vote against anyone. He’s running 13 points behind Joe Biden, 9 points behind Bernie Sanders, and 7 points behind Elizabeth Warren.

In the latest Morning Consult tracking survey, Trump hits 50 percent disapproval ratings in North Carolina, Arizona, Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Iowa—all states he carried in 2016. Two recent polls show Trump trailing Biden in reliably Republican Arizona (by 5) and Texas (by 4), while holding only small leads against weaker competition. He trails Sanders by 12 points in Michigan, matching his deficit against Biden.

Meanwhile, Trump isn’t acting like a president seeking to build upon support from his base. His threats to impose tariffs on Mexico particularly alarmed Senate Republicans in states that he needs to win next year. Any economic downturn before the election would all but doom his already precarious prospects. His unwillingness to work with Democrats, given their aggressive oversight of his administration, makes it all the more difficult to tout any bipartisan accomplishments on the campaign trail.

Trump’s clearest path to victory relies on Democrats making a series of self-destructive decisions. But even if Democrats turn leftward and nominate a weak challenger, they’d still have a credible chance at unseating Trump. The country’s rampant polarization guarantees that anyone-- no matter how extreme-- would be well-positioned against the president. Just as Trump rallied enough skeptical Republicans to support him against Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders would likely win over reluctant Democrats to his side against Trump.

Ironically, Trump’s very vulnerability is spurring Democrats to act in a self-defeating fashion. Long-shot candidates have crowded the primary field, recognizing that they’ve got a real chance to be president if they win the nomination. South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg has proven them right, demonstrating that a few viral moments and a strong performance on national TV can catapult the most obscure candidate into prominence.

Progressive Democrats, who would be unlikely to win an election against a traditional Republican opponent, recognize that 2020 presents a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to gain power. They’re willing to sacrifice the party’s strong odds of winning in order to move the party in a left-wing direction.

But all the Democratic overreach may not matter. Presidential reelection campaigns are fundamentally about the incumbent’s performance in office. As much as he wants, Trump can’t effectively use the slogan “make America great again” for 2020. He’ll need to run on his record, not just on the deficiencies of the challenger.

In the run-up to the 2018 midterms, Democrats had trouble recognizing their own good fortune. For a while, many believed the strong economy would insulate Trump from major losses. They worried they’d need to win too many seats in Republican territory to have a chance at retaking the House majority. They thought their party’s ascendant progressivism would cost them swing seats. Trump’s abnormal behavior in office allowed them to overcome all those obstacles.

It's too early in the process for any one or two or three polls to give a meaningful indication of what is going to happen in 17 months. Sentiment now is against Trump in the very states he needs to pull off another electoral college win. Hillary was the wrong candidate for Midwest swing states like Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin. Trump would have lost if he didn't win in those unlikely states. At this point, its appears that Bernie would beat Trump in all 4 of them + Pennsylvania.

Biden? Maybe... or maybe Clinton Redux? He's offering the struggling working class the same thing Clinton offered them: a plate of steaming bullshit and some nice-sounding words on the side. Don't forget this: