Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Getting Around The Massive Deficits Trump And The GOP Are Leaving The Country... And The Next President

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Obama left Trump a powerful, healthy and expanding economy. In 2021 Trump— even without a recession— will be leaving Bernie or whoever wins the presidency, something very different. As it does every year, the CBO just released a report presenting its budget projections for the next 30 years reflecting current law. The top line looks pretty dire: “Large budget deficits over the next 30 years are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels— from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 144 percent by 2049. That projection incorporates CBO’s central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt. CBO’s analysis indicates that even if values for those factors differed from the agency’s projections, debt several decades from now would probably be much higher than it is today.”

I’m not afraid of debt— so long as it’s used productively. Example: building a better educational system and empowering millions of young people with it is a valuable investment and exactly what the government should be doing. Ditto for a modern healthcare system, a robust approach to infrastructure, etc. The opposite is wasting money on tax cuts for the wealthy and on corruption, which is how Trump has run up the deficit not just quantitatively but also negatively qualitatively. His deficits are toxic for the country and may make it more difficult for a president with a bold vision for transforming society to get his or her plans funded by a small-minded, austerity-oriented Congress (Republicans, Blue Dogs and New Dems that have enabled Trump and played patsy with him in creating the impending fiscal disaster).

The CBO offers a caveat: “Other Possible Outcomes. The agency’s projections of debt are highly sensitive to changes in the factors underlying them. For example, if the growth of total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector was one-half of one percentage point lower each year than CBO projects, all else being equal, debt in 2049 would be 185 percent of GDP; if such growth was one-half of one percentage point higher, debt that year would be 106 percent of GDP. If interest rates were one percentage point higher each year than CBO projects, debt in 2049 would be 199 percent of GDP; if they were one percentage point lower, debt that year would be 107 percent of GDP.”

Bernie is calling for a political revolution that foresees the engagement of the general public in his vision of societal and political change. That’s going to be very difficult to achieve, although I’m bolstered by seeing how widely this vision in being embraced by people under 30. It’s sad that so many people over 60 don’t see it at all and just want to be left alone to live out their remaining years with as little fundamental change as possible— which explains why voters closest to death are also most enthusiastic about Status Quo Joe’s ill-fated candidacy.

"In terms of economic management," Alan Grayson told me this morning, "to have a trillion-dollar deficit when unemployment is at 4 percent is criminal. Trump has led six companies into bankruptcy, and now he’s trying to do it to the whole country."

Arizona progressive Democrat Eva Putzova, running for a congressional seat occupied by "ex"-Republican Blue Dog Tom O'Halleran, has a very practical way of looking at the problem: "If we invest in healthcare, education, and green infrastructure, the returns from greater productivity in our economy will mitigate any increased deficits. I support those investments which, when paired with increased taxes on the wealthy and reductions in military spending, will ensure a healthy economy and society."

Getting Bernie elected and giving him the bully pulpit to use for political revolution persuasion is the most important thing we can do now. Second, is helping replace members of Congress who are part of the problem— basically all Republicans plus the Republican wing of the Democratic Party— the Blue Dogs, New Dems and their fellow travelers. We need to start with the primaries to excise garbage Democrats like Dan Lipinski (IL), Steny Hoyer (MD), David Scott (GA), Henry Cuellar (TX), Tom O’Halleran (AZ), Jim Costa (CA), etc. After that, there are at least 50 solid Republican targets for 2020, from 10 in Texas alone (McCaul, Hurd, Marchant, Carter, Crenshaw, Roy, Taylor, Williams, Olson and Wright) to 4 each in California (LaMalfa, McClintock, Nunes and Hunter) and New York (Zeldin, King, Katko and Collins).

Kara Eastman is a progressive Democrat running a spectacular grassroots campaign for the Omaha congressional seat occupied by Trump enabler Don Bacon. This morning, Kara told me that “The Republicans can no longer claim to be the fiscally responsible party when they continue to increase our debt, threaten to cut earned benefits like Social Security, and give blatant hand outs to the very wealthy and large corporations. My grandfather, a Republican who earned a Purple Heart in WWII, would not recognize his party today. Especially when as a veteran today, he would not be able to afford a decent home and would have to work more than one job to support his family of 7. He believed that in America, if you worked hard you could get ahead. He believed that there was dignity in working long hours to support your family. He would be disgraced by his party’s loyalty to the wealthy over the rest of us.”

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3 Comments:

At 5:25 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

This happens EVERY time the GOP gets control over the government. It's their way of keeping the other poor excuse for a party from doing anything significant, for the war machine's ravenous appetite must be served no matter what the other needs of the nation.

 
At 10:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Massive deficits are systemic in this inverted economy.

Deficits used to be run when the economy needed an extra kick to help money velocity or to fund wars -- pour newly minted debt dollars into the economy to put people to work being productive.
Since 1980, the religious fervor has been to increase deficits so as to make the rich much richer -- pour new debt money into the pockets of the rich. Government, made up of the rich, do it for obvious reasons. Voters do it because they are sooooo fucking stupid that they believe the horse shit reasoning they are given by the rich.

"Getting Bernie elected ... is the most important thing we can do now. Second, is helping replace members of Congress who are part of the problem— basically all Republicans plus the Republican wing of the Democratic Party— the Blue Dogs, New Dems and their fellow travelers."

pure sheepdoggery.

you can't replace Nazis in most districts nor any southern states with democraps -- religious aversion of white racists.
But you also cannot replace a few blue dogs, new dems and fellows. nothing will change without replacing ALL OF THEM. And that means a totally new, truly left party/movement.
A totally corrupt party cannot be fixed from within. it must be killed. did the anti-slavery voters decide to replace only the worst whigs back in 1860? If they had tried that, would slavery have EVER ended?

the whigs were not massaged from within. they were euthanized. And slavery ended.

just how fucking stupid are we?

 
At 10:33 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

it's also sheepdoggery to suggest that the deficits are unique to trump and the NAZI (the GOP ceased to exist in 2000) party.

deficits for the purpose of minting money and giving it to the rich started with Reagan and NOBODY OF EITHER OF THE MONEY PARTIES has done anything different. In fact, obamanation oversaw an annual deficit for most of his admin that was almost as big as trump's (though receipts fell due to the bankster depression that he also did dick about).

so the title is such sheepdoggery that it is basically a lie.

no congress made up of Nazis and fascists will ever raise taxes again, no matter what a president says he wants (sincerely or facetiously). And voters will never elect a government of anyone other than Nazis and fascists again.

which is to say the deficits, AND the debt (the sum of all annual deficits between 1776 and now) will never be fixed. cuz we won't ever fix them.

 

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