Getting Around The Massive Deficits Trump And The GOP Are Leaving The Country... And The Next President

Obama left Trump a powerful, healthy and expanding economy. In 2021 Trump— even without a recession— will be leaving Bernie or whoever wins the presidency, something very different. As it does every year, the CBO just released a report presenting its budget projections for the next 30 years reflecting current law. The top line looks pretty dire: “Large budget deficits over the next 30 years are projected to drive federal debt held by the public to unprecedented levels— from 78 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2019 to 144 percent by 2049. That projection incorporates CBO’s central estimates of various factors, such as productivity growth and interest rates on federal debt. CBO’s analysis indicates that even if values for those factors differed from the agency’s projections, debt several decades from now would probably be much higher than it is today.”

I’m not afraid of debt— so long as it’s used productively. Example: building a better educational system and empowering millions of young people with it is a valuable investment and exactly what the government should be doing. Ditto for a modern healthcare system, a robust approach to infrastructure, etc. The opposite is wasting money on tax cuts for the wealthy and on corruption, which is how Trump has run up the deficit not just quantitatively but also negatively qualitatively. His deficits are toxic for the country and may make it more difficult for a president with a bold vision for transforming society to get his or her plans funded by a small-minded, austerity-oriented Congress (Republicans, Blue Dogs and New Dems that have enabled Trump and played patsy with him in creating the impending fiscal disaster).

The CBO offers a caveat: “Other Possible Outcomes. The agency’s projections of debt are highly sensitive to changes in the factors underlying them. For example, if the growth of total factor productivity in the nonfarm business sector was one-half of one percentage point lower each year than CBO projects, all else being equal, debt in 2049 would be 185 percent of GDP; if such growth was one-half of one percentage point higher, debt that year would be 106 percent of GDP. If interest rates were one percentage point higher each year than CBO projects, debt in 2049 would be 199 percent of GDP; if they were one percentage point lower, debt that year would be 107 percent of GDP.”

Bernie is calling for a political revolution that foresees the engagement of the general public in his vision of societal and political change. That’s going to be very difficult to achieve, although I’m bolstered by seeing how widely this vision in being embraced by people under 30. It’s sad that so many people over 60 don’t see it at all and just want to be left alone to live out their remaining years with as little fundamental change as possible— which explains why voters closest to death are also most enthusiastic about Status Quo Joe’s ill-fated candidacy.

"In terms of economic management," Alan Grayson told me this morning, "to have a trillion-dollar deficit when unemployment is at 4 percent is criminal. Trump has led six companies into bankruptcy, and now he’s trying to do it to the whole country."

Arizona progressive Democrat Eva Putzova, running for a congressional seat occupied by "ex"-Republican Blue Dog Tom O'Halleran, has a very practical way of looking at the problem: "If we invest in healthcare, education, and green infrastructure, the returns from greater productivity in our economy will mitigate any increased deficits. I support those investments which, when paired with increased taxes on the wealthy and reductions in military spending, will ensure a healthy economy and society."

Getting Bernie elected and giving him the bully pulpit to use for political revolution persuasion is the most important thing we can do now. Second, is helping replace members of Congress who are part of the problem— basically all Republicans plus the Republican wing of the Democratic Party— the Blue Dogs, New Dems and their fellow travelers. We need to start with the primaries to excise garbage Democrats like Dan Lipinski (IL), Steny Hoyer (MD), David Scott (GA), Henry Cuellar (TX), Tom O’Halleran (AZ), Jim Costa (CA), etc. After that, there are at least 50 solid Republican targets for 2020, from 10 in Texas alone (McCaul, Hurd, Marchant, Carter, Crenshaw, Roy, Taylor, Williams, Olson and Wright) to 4 each in California (LaMalfa, McClintock, Nunes and Hunter) and New York (Zeldin, King, Katko and Collins).

Kara Eastman is a progressive Democrat running a spectacular grassroots campaign for the Omaha congressional seat occupied by Trump enabler Don Bacon. This morning, Kara told me that “The Republicans can no longer claim to be the fiscally responsible party when they continue to increase our debt, threaten to cut earned benefits like Social Security, and give blatant hand outs to the very wealthy and large corporations. My grandfather, a Republican who earned a Purple Heart in WWII, would not recognize his party today. Especially when as a veteran today, he would not be able to afford a decent home and would have to work more than one job to support his family of 7. He believed that in America, if you worked hard you could get ahead. He believed that there was dignity in working long hours to support your family. He would be disgraced by his party’s loyalty to the wealthy over the rest of us.”