Despite The DCCC, House Democrats Should Do Well Next Year Thanks To Trump

Medicare-For-All original co-sponsor Josh Harder (CA) raked in a stupendous $800,000 in the first quarter. Just imagine how much he would have raised if he was also co-sponsoring the Green New Deal and a $15 minimum wage

If the Democrats don't deliver on the expectations voters have of them-- Medicare-For-All, a $15 minimum wage, the Green New Deal, etc-- 2022 is going to be a banner year for the GOP-- akin to 2010. But 2020 is not going to be a banner year for the GOP. It's more likely to be even worse for them than 2018 was. There's a good chance they will lose seats in the Senate and they could gain as many as 50 seats in the House, despite the DCCC being burdened with the most inept chair in recent memory.

Republicans had hoped to win back seats in red districts that Democrats stumbled into last year. Right now the closest thing to a sure loss I see is the Oklahoma City seats, where Blue Dog Kendra Horn is disappointing and alienating her Democratic base without picking up enough support anywhere else to make up for it. Meanwhile though, Democratic freshmen, reports the Washington Examiner, "are posting huge fundraising numbers...signaling trouble for Republicans hoping to reclaim the House... [T]he stellar numbers from relatively obscure, freshman House Democrats have caught the attention of Republican operatives. Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA) raised $800,000 from Jan. 1 to March 31; Rep. Antonio Delgado (D-NY) raised $750,000; and Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-SC) raised $650,000, to name a few.

Fatigue typically sets in after an election as donors retrench and the grassroots bask in victory. To the extent robust, post-midterm election activity continues, presidential candidates usually benefit. But House Democrats-- even those not named Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)-- are maintaining their 2018 momentum.

“The Democrats’ liberal base is still motivated by their white-hot hatred of President Trump,” said Michael Steel, a Republican operative.

Democrats collectively raised more than $1 billion in 2017 and 2018 on their way to flipping 40 House seats and winning control of the chamber after eight years in the minority. The party lost a net of two Senate seats but successfully defended a handful of targeted seats while capturing two from the GOP in the key battlegrounds of Arizona and Nevada. In doing so, Democrats vastly outraised the Republicans.

Some Republicans assumed that the progressive energy fueling the Democratic Party’s green wave of fundraising and activism in 2018 would cool down post-election. According to this line of this line of thinking, seizing the House, and exercising the power it afforded, would satisfy some of the hunger to combat Trump.

But some Republicans are warning colleagues to ignore this conventional wisdom after seeing the initial wave of first quarter fundraising figures from House Democrats who were elected just last November and are far from household names. “Democrats are serious about defeating the president and they want a House that will be helpful,” said a veteran Republican strategist, who requested anonymity to avoid publicly criticizing the party.

“In 2018, Democrats were just getting started,” this operative added.

...With Trump on the ballot in 2020, Republicans are not going to have an enthusiasm or turnout problem.

But neither will Democrats. Trump is the most polarizing political figure in contemporary American history. Republicans will turn out in great numbers to support him and Democrats will turn out in great numbers to oppose him. Independents will determine who wins and right now, Trump continuing to poll very badly with them.

Other freshmen in districts targeted by the NRCC who have been raising prohibitively large amounts of money include Democrats from all wings of the party:

• Max Rose (Blue Dog-NY)- $600,000
• Haley Stevens (New Dem-MI)- $565,000
• Katie Hill (New Dem-CA)- $560,000
• Andy Kim (D-NJ)- $550,000
• Harley Rouda (New Dem-CA)- $500,000

These are the freshman members supporting 3 key pieces of legislation-- Pramila Jayapal's new-and-improved Medicare for All Act (H.R.1384), AOC's Green New Deal Resolution (H.Res.109) and Bobby Scott's $15 minimum wage bill (H.R.582):

• Veronica Escobar (TX)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Chuy Garcia (IL)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Debra Haaland (NM)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Jahana Hayes (CT)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Mike Levin (CA)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Andy Levin (MI)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Joe Neguse (CO)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Ayanna Pressley (MA)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Rashida Tlaib (MI)- Medicare for All, $15, GND
• Lori Trahan (MA)- Medicare for All, $15, GND

• Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL)- $15, GND

• Katie Hill (CA)- Medicare for All, $15
• Ilhan Omar (MN)- Medicare for All, $15
• Susan Wild (PA)- Medicare for All, $15

• Jared Golden (ME)- Medicare for All
• Josh Harder (CA)- Medicare for All

• Joseph Morelle (NY)- $15
• Kim Schrier (WA)- $15
• Donna Shalala (FL)- $15
• David Trone (MD)- $15
• Susie Lee (NV)- $15
• Tom Malinowski (NJ)- $15
• Jennifer Wexton (VA)- $15
• Sylvia Garcia (TX)- $15
• Elaine Luria (VA)- $15
• Mary Gay Scanlon (PA)- $15
• Katie Porter (CA)- $15
• Gil Cisneros (CA)- $15
• Andy Kim (NJ)- $15
• Harley Rouda (CA)- $15
• Steven Horsford (NV)- $15
• Jason Crow (CO)- $15
• Ed Case (HI)- $15
• Mike Sherrill (NJ)- $15
• Haley Stevens (MI)- $15
• Max Rose (NY)- $15
• Madeleine Dean (PA)- $15
• Chrissy Houlahan (PA)- $15
• Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ)- $15
• Elissa Slotkin (MI)- $15
• Abigail Spanberger (VA)- $15

NY Blue Dog Anthony Brindisi isn't cosponsoring a $15 minimum wage, isn't cosponsoring the Green New Deal and isn't cosponsoring Medicare For All-- but expects Democrats to vote for him next year

And these are the Democratic freshmen who are supporting NONE of the progressive initiatives, not even the $15 minimum wage, which should be easy as pie for any Democrat. This list is of non-co-sponsors, not necessarily opponents. Some of these members will vote for the bills but for one reason or another just haven't signed on as co-sponsors. Some though, are opponents.

• Jeff Van Drew (NJ)
• Joe Cunningham (SC)
• Kendra Horn (OK)
• Cindy Axne (IA)
• Ben McAdams (UT)
• Xochitl Torres Small (NM)
• Sharice Davids (KS)
• Anthony Brindisi (NY)
• Antonio Delgado (NY)
• Abby Finkenauer (IA)
• Lucy McBath (GA)
• Angie Craig (MN)
• Colin Allred (TX)
• Dean Phillips (MN)
• Chris Pappas (NH)
• TJ Cox (CA)
• Sean Casten (IL)
• Lauren Underwood (IL)
• Greg Stanton (AZ)