Is The Establishment Out To Block Bernie Again?

The new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll had a little good news for Trump: strong party loyalty. The rest of the news was bad and adds up to... no second term for you, Bozo. When asked if they will definitely or probably vote for Trump in 2020 or definitely or probably vote for his Democratic opponent, respondents divided like this:

• Definitely vote for Trump- 27%
• Probably vote for Trump- 14%
• Probably vote for the Democrat- 15%
• Definitely vote for the Democrat- 33%

That's 48% for a Democrat and 41% for Trump. In 2016 Hillary won the popular vote (65,853,514 to 62,984,828) that same 48% to Trump's 46%. As people have gotten to know Trump better, they've decided he shouldn't have a second term.

Who likes Trump most?

• Republicans- 88%
• rural residents- 60%
• whites without college degrees- 60%
• men- 54%
• whites- 54%

Who dislikes Trump most?

• African Americans- 88%
• Latinos- 64%
• women- 61%
• those between 18-34- 57%
• whites with college degrees- 55%
• INDEPENDENTS- 51%

The word "independents" is capitalized for a reason. They're the ones who decide the election. Republicans vote for Republicans. Democrats vote for Democrats. Independents decide the winners.

Sounds good, right? But not to The Establishment--which is more worried that a genuine progressive win than seeing Trump reelected. Yesterday, the NY Times' Trip Gabriel warned that Democrats will lose unless they stick to the Republican wing of their party for messaging and candidates. He puked out the corporatist/Establishment line (lie) that "there are widespread worries that the momentum in Pennsylvania, and in other key Rust Belt states, could screech to a halt if the issues in the 2020 presidential primaries and the party’s eventual nominee stray too far left for the region’s many centrist voters." Really, like in Michigan, Wisconsin and downstate Illinois, where Bernie won the 2016 primaries and is, if anything, even more popular today?

Cue: corporate whore and Pennsylvania's most corrupt Democrat, Ed Rendell: "The more we have presidential candidates or newly elected congresspeople talking about the Green New Deal, talking about ‘Medicare for all,’ talking about socialism, the more that plays into the Trump campaign’s hands." Here's what the Blue Dogs, New Dems, Problem Solvers, No Labels folks who are desperate to push Status Quo Joe Biden into the nomination have to say:

He mentioned issues that are tantalizing to some primary voters and candidates but which risk alienating general election voters, such as reparations for descendants of slaves and a rapid, costly transition to carbon-free energy. “Reparations? What are we talking about?” Mr. Rendell scoffed. “Having only renewable energy by 2030? It’s not possible to achieve that.”

Mr. Trump is in the White House in large part because of the crumbling in 2016 of three so-called blue-wall states, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, which had not voted for a Republican presidential candidate in more than two decades.

In 2020, if the rest of the electoral map is unchanged, with Mr. Trump winning the swing states of Florida and Ohio, Democrats understand that their most promising path back to the presidency is to resurrect the blue wall. Mr. Trump carried the three states by less than 80,000 total votes, so small fluctuations in his support or opposition would be pivotal.

Christopher Borick, a political scientist and pollster at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, called 2016 a “lightning-in-a-bottle” victory that will be hard for the president to duplicate.

But, he said, Democrats are in danger of creating the conditions in which it could happen.

“A more left-leaning candidate opens the door for Trump,” Mr. Borick said. “If you want to lock up Pennsylvania for a Democrat, the more moderate Democrats are the key.”

Some Democratic strategists said it is much too early to rule out any of the 2020 hopefuls as unable to defeat Mr. Trump in Pennsylvania, where disapproval of his job performance is 54 percent, with 42 percent approval, according to Gallup.

“I’m not going to sit here and say there’s a Democratic nominee that can’t win Pennsylvania,” said Jason O’Malley, a party strategist in Lancaster County, a Republican-leaning region.

Coleman Lamb, a senior adviser to his brother Conor, said a candidate’s personal qualities mattered more to voters than ideology. “I don’t think the only way to win is someone who proactively goes to the middle,” he said. “I think it’s more someone who is authentic, who’s saying what they actually believe and think.”

In 2018, Conor Lamb flipped many precincts that had voted for Mr. Trump, especially in the North Hills suburbs of Pittsburgh. Recent interviews with two dozen voters there, a mix of blue- and white-collar workers, revealed the full Democratic spectrum, from progressives eager for a nominee who leans hard left, to party apostates who voted for Mr. Trump and remain solidly behind him.

Gabriel then dug up some a retired postal worker and Trump voter to call Bernie a communist-- "He wants to take everything off the rich and give it to the poor: That’s communism"-- and say he'd never vote for him, the line of propaganda that is being spread by the Biden campaign. Next a claim that Scott Wallace, "one progressive who made it to the general election in a competitive district," lost to Brian Fitzpatrick, without mentioning that Fitzpatrick is the most left-leaning Republican in Congress and is actually voting more frequently for progressive legislation than several conservative Democrats. Also unmentioned is that the DCCC worked against progressives in the primaries but that of the 4 challengers who did win, two (Mary Gay Scanlon and Madeleine Dean) joined the Congressional Progressive Caucus and that the 3 Blue Dog/New Dem candidates Ron DiNicola, George Scott and Denny Wolff who made it to the general election were defeated. But what do facts means for the NY Times these days?

The "leading Democratic and Republican strategists" Gabriel interviewed say the best bets in Pennsylvania are Status Quo Joe and Ms Middle of the Road/Means Nothing candidate Amy Klobuchar.

Quartz did a funny "Meet The Dems" post that included "Who will like this candidate and "Who will hate this candidate" sections on each one:

• Bernie- 8.1 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Loyal “Bernie Bros” who still think he would have won in 2016, new converts to the idea of universal healthcare and higher taxes for the wealthy.
• Who will hate: Democrats who see Sanders as a “spoiler” who siphons votes away from defeating Trump, Clinton fans still smarting over her loss, people of color alienated by Sanders’ last campaign.

• Elizabeth Warren- 4.8 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Detail-oriented voters who like her mix of east coast academic know-how and midwest roots.
• Who will hate: Voters who distrust the intellectual elite, people who doubt she has enough personal appeal and can lure centrists.

• Cory Booker- 4.18 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Voters looking for an optimistic message to contrast Trump’s negativity, northeastern city dwellers.
• Who will hate: White rural voters who don’t want to focus on race and inequality, liberals concerned about his Wall Street and Silicon Valley enthusiasts.

• Status Quo Joe- 3.31 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Democrats who think a safe pair of hands is a tested white man, independents nostalgic for the Obama administration, Republicans Trump has lost.
• Who will hate: Progressive millennials eager for a new generation of leaders, far-right conservatives who hated Obama.

• Marianne Williamson- 2.6 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Some woke white liberals, coastal elites.
• Who will hate: Pragmatic voters, nationalists, centrists, people who want the party to stay away from identity politics, those wary of modern spiritual movements.

• Kamala Harris- 2.37 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Fans of Obama’s progressive pragmatism looking for a candidate who can combine a compelling personal biography with the promise to unite the party’s multi-ethnic coalition.
• Who will hate: Progressives who thought Obama was a sellout, particularly those who question her mixed record on reforming the justice system.

• Michael Bloomberg- 2.29 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Other centrists who think a steady hand means an older billionaire; gun-control supporters.
• Who will hate: Anyone hungry to see a younger, less white, less male, non-billionaire be the face of the Democratic party.

• Kirsten Gillibrand- 1.36 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Establishment-oriented voters and party supporters closely tied to the Democratic National Committee, where Gillibrand has deep support, and still-with-Hillary folks.
• Who will hate: Progressive voters-- Gillibrand’s work defending the tobacco industry and her anti-immigrant platform a decade ago raise questions about where her loyalties lie.

• Beto- 1.23 million Twitter followers

• Who will like: Democrats disillusioned with party leadership (especially millennials), immigrants, veterans.
• Who will hate: Voters hungry for nitty-gritty details on what his policies would be, Democrats who want the party to stay away from divisive, culture-war issues.

• Amy Klobuchar- 631,000 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Folks looking for a Goldilocks candidate-- neither too left nor too right, and a woman who appeals to midwestern voters.
• Who will hate: Democrats to her left may be opposed to Klobuchar’s centrist appeal.

• Tulsi Gabbard- 279,000 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Veterans, some progressives, voters looking to reduce military spending.
• Who will hate: People who are concerned about Islamophobia, supporters of global trade.

• Julián Castro- 179,000 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Democrats looking for a fresh face, Latino voters, free traders.
• Who will hate: Democrats dismissive of identity politics, opponents of affirmative action (which Castro supports).

• Jay Inslee- 158,000 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Inslee’s long history of sounding the alarm on climate change will endear him to anyone worried about looming environmental disaster; his tech-focused solutions for the country’s woes are likely to appeal to that industry.
• Who will hate: Climate science deniers, fossil fuel industry executives, wealthier individuals opposed to his capital gains tax proposals in Washington state.

• Pete Buttigieg- 135,000 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Millennials, LGBTQ voters, voters from flyover states, social progressives.
• Who will hate: Voters looking for a more experienced candidate, conservative Christians.

• Andrew Yang- 62,400 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Silicon Valley types, promoters of universal basic income (UBI).
• Who will hate: Anyone against higher taxes: Yang wants to fund his UBI proposal through value-added taxes.

• John Delaney- 14,400 Twitter followers

• Who will like: Centrists drawn by his nuts-and-bolts pitch to improve workers’ rights, education, and infrastructure.
• Who will hate: Democrats who don’t think that reaching out to Donald Trump voters is the way to win in 2020.

I put them in order of Twitter followers because-- unlike journalists-- Twitter followers seem to gravitate to candidates based on substantive proposals. Remember this:




UPDATE: There's A Rat In The Valley

The Chicago Sun Times mentioned yesterday that they were surprised Chuy Garcia wasn't up on the stage at the big Bernie rally on Navy Pier. Chuy, who Bernie endorsed for mayor against Rahm Emanuel and then helped win his congressional seat, is one of the progressives who hasn't endorsed him. What we're hearing from fairly good sources is that after Pelosi (and Kevin McCarthy) decided to bury the credible molestation charges of a minor against Tony Cárdenas (D-CA)-- a pretty shady Democrat to begin with-- Pelosi owns Cárdenas. He drugged and molested Angela Villela Chavez when she was 16 and threatened to fire her father if she ever told. He's Mr. Money-Bags in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus' Bold PAC and Pelosi, according to two sources, told him to keep his members from endorsing Bernie. I can't believe (literally can't) the stories going around about the threats-- from Pelosi-- that Cárdenas is using. It just doesn't sound like her; it sounds like him. But, maybe that's what she wanted. Welcome to the sausage factory.