Trump Continues Chipping Away At His Own Base

A new Axios/SurveyMonkey poll found that 74% of Democrats (and people who lean Dem) would consider voting for AOC if she were old enough to run for president. They also asked voters to compare her to the senior senator from her state-- Chucky-Schmucky-- and Dems have a 70% favorable/22% unfavorable impression of her and a 64% favorable/29% unfavorable impression of Schumer. God is good! But let's get back to Señor T. Or more specifically to the people who voted for him. The Washington Post ran a fascinating report by Matt Viser yesterday, Part of Trump's Base Is Faulting Him For The Shutdown, which had to happen after the recent Marist polling finally showing his base starting to crack.

Viser began with an anecdote about Jeff Daudert, a 49-year-old retired Navy reservist from what Viser called "an area of blue-collar suburban Detroit that helped deliver Trump the presidency." He wrote that two years ago, Daudert "was fed up with politics. He wanted to shake up the status quo. He didn't mind sending a message to the establishment-- and, frankly, he liked the idea of a disruptive president." Now he's having second thoughts. "What the fuck were we thinking?"

While Trump's relationship with much of his base remains strong, two years after his inauguration his ties are fraying with voters like Daudert, the kind who voted in droves for Trump in 2016 in key pockets throughout the industrial Midwest and flipped previously Democratic states to him. The shutdown fight, as it has played out the past month, is further eroding his support among voters who like the idea of beefing up border security, but not enough to close the government.

Many here, even those who still support Trump, say they hold him most responsible. They recite his comment from the Oval Office that he would be “proud to shut down the government.” When he said it, they listened.

“It's silly. It's destructive,” Daudert said, adding that all he knows about 2020 is that he won't be supporting Trump. “I was certainly for the anti-status quo... I'll be more status quo next time.”

Here, far from the nation's capital and in an area not dominated by federal workers, the government shutdown is resonating in an unusual way. A trampoline park is giving government employees and their families an hour of free jumping. A local credit union is offering low-interest loans for furloughed employees who need to replace a lost salary.

Some local governments in the area are beginning to allow federal workers to defer property taxes, utility bills and parking tickets. Food drives are being discussed to help TSA workers at Detroit's airport, and a yoga studio is offering free classes for federal employees.

Recent polling indicates the shutdown has caused skittishness among parts of Trump's base, which has been one of the most enduring strengths of his presidency. A new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, conducted Jan. 10 to Jan. 13, found his net approval rating had dropped seven points since December.

One of the biggest drops came from suburban men, whose approval rating fell a net change of 18 percentage points, while evangelicals and Republicans also dipped by smaller margins. Among men without a college degree, the downward change was seven points.

As Jeremiah Wilburn, a 45-year-old operating engineer, browsed the aisles at Walmart for a new pair of coveralls, he reflected on some of those shifts. Like many voters here, after siding twice in the elections with former President Barack Obama, he decided to gamble with Trump. And for most of the past two years, he was pleased. The economy was humming, jobs were flowing and wages seemed stable.

Until now.

“I was doing fine with him up until this government shutdown,” he said. “It's ridiculous. You're not getting the wall built for $5 billion. And Mexico is not paying for it, we all know that, too. Meanwhile, it's starting to turn people like me away.”

He worries about the impact the shutdown will have on the economy.

He's concerned about the impact on his brother, who works for the TSA in Florida.

To him, the shutdown standoff has also poked holes in Trump's ability to say that he cares for the working class, given that 800,000 federal employees and additional contractors going without a paycheck.

“You can't expect people to come to work without getting paid,” Wilburn said. “If I were them, I certainly wouldn't come to work.”

Other Trump fans have a whole different concern-- like Rudy G. He's worried about what his gravestone is going to say.

Saying things for Trump, not always being truthful about it-- do you ever worry that this will be your legacy? Does that ever worry you in any way?

Rudy: "Absolutely. I am afraid it will be on my gravestone. 'Rudy Giuliani: He lied for Trump.' Somehow, I don’t think that will be it. But, if it is, so what do I care? I’ll be dead. I figure I can explain it to St. Peter. He will be on my side, because I am, so far . . . I don’t think, as a lawyer, I ever said anything that’s untruthful."

Even though Trump is ranting and raving, calling him names and yelling and screaming about firing him, my guess is that unless Trump stiffs him on his fees, Giuliani will still be one of the 40% (or less) to vote for him in 2020.