Colorado Just Had a Real Wave Election-- And National Democrats Need Them To Have Another In 2020

Colorado just elected a socially liberal, fiscally conservative Democrat as governor; nothing new there. But he’s also the the first openly-gay man elected governor in any state. Also the richest Democrat in the House— and a member of both the reformist Congressional Progressive Caucus and the Wall Street-owned and operated New Dems. Jared Polis can be almost all things to all people. Last Tuesday he beat Republican Walker Stapleton 1,210,621 (52.3%) to 1,018,072 (44.0%). There was never much doubt that Polis was going to win. And there was even less doubt that politically similar Democrat Joe Neguse would be replacing him in Congress. Neguse beat Republican Peter Yu in the Boulder-centered district 252,220 (60.0%) to 142,617 (33.9%).

The only partisan change in the Colorado congressional delegation was that conservative Democrat Jason Crow beat mainstream conservative Republican Mike Coffman in the suburban Denver 6th district— 184,399 (54.1%) to 146,339 (42.9%). So the House delegation went from 3 Democrats and 4 Republicans to 4 Democrats and 3 Republicans, not that big of a chance to merit this headline from the Denver Post: Colorado Republicans’ conundrum: Donald Trump and the unaffiliated voters who loathe him. Well there was also the legislature. Heading into the election, Republicans had an 18-16-1 majority in the state Senate. Of the chamber's 35 seats, 17 were up for election. Ten were held by Republicans, six were held by Democrats, and one was held by the independent. Democrats won 3 Republican seats and will now control that body. Democrats already controlled the state House and still do. And Democrats replaced Republicans as Attorney General, Secretary of State and Treasurer. Yep… wave.

Reporter Nic Garcia wrote that there is a great deal of concern in the GOP about Cory Gardner’s chance of holding the US Senate seat. Insiders, he wrote, consider “Gardner’s re-election prospects grim unless the GOP can develop a new message.” Why all this change? Independents— 900,000 unaffiliated voters.

“The barn has been completely cleaned out,” said David Flaherty, a Colorado Republican pollster. “We’re trying to learn what motivated them. But you’re kidding yourself if you say President Trump didn’t have something to do with it.”

Long before the results from the 2018 election were known, Republicans— especially those running for statewide office— faced daunting electoral challenges. Colorado is getting younger; the party has registered fewer than 50,000 new voters since 2014; and the national mood favored Democrats.

Now, according to Flaherty and other political insiders interviewed by the Denver Post this week, the situation is more dire for Colorado’s GOP. Of most immediate concern: U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner’s re-election prospects are grim unless the party can develop a new message that appeals to both the Trump loyalists and the independent voters who dislike the president.

…Unlike in more conservative states, Colorado’s Republican Party is split over Trump. The base, especially in more rural parts of Colorado, adores him. And while more of the party’s leaders have come to embrace the president’s brashness, power brokers who orbit the party are still repulsed by Trump’s worst tendencies.

…For Republicans to claw back any power, they need to be turning out more voters in swing counties such as Jefferson and Arapahoe, the latter of which makes up the majority of the competitive 6th Congressional District that Republican Rep. Mike Coffman just lost. Jefferson County, meanwhile, is home to three typically competitive state Senate races that Democrats just swept.

Whether Trump could have helped turn out more Republican voters is an open question.

Trump certainly believes he could have. In a post-election news conference, he called out Coffman as well as other congressional Republicans who distanced themselves from the president and lost their elections.

Whether Republican candidates should have asked Trump for help “is a discussion worth having,” said Justin Prendergast, a Republican strategist. “However, I think not having Trump here gives us a clear analysis on where the base is.”

As results came in Tuesday night and it became clear that Republicans were losing massive ground across the state, U.S. Rep. Ken Buck said it was time for the party to rethink its goals and message.

“Republicans have lost our brand,” Buck said. For example, the party claims to be fiscally conservative, but it has racked up a trillion-dollar deficit, he said.

“The Republican brand in Colorado is hurting right now,” he said. “We need to sit down and have a serious conversation about who should lead.”

…Democrats have not been shy about their next target: U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner. The Yuma Republican now will be one of only two statewide GOP officeholders.

The Senate map for Democrats in 2020 isn’t as bad as it was in 2018— but it isn’t a lot better. The party will be looking at a very narrow path to taking back the Senate while defeating Trump. Colorado is a must.