The Midterms Are All About Two Things: Trump And Healthcare

Will people vote against this? Or to protect healthcare?

Unless the polls are all wrong, the 2 things that will be on the top of most voters' minds when they cast their ballots-- and millions are already doing so in an unprecedented rush to cast ballot early-- are Señor Trumpanzee and on healthcare. Thursday Kaiser released their new poll and yesterday the Associated Press put theirs out. Neither had any good news for the GOP. Both polls indicated that Trump is the top motivator for voters, that Trump's disapproval numbers are sky-high and climbing and that voters want to hand congressional leadership over to the Democrats and plan to vote against their own local Republican candidates. First the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation findings:

• 30% of voters (the highest percentage) said health care was their #1 issue (immigration was half that)
• 83% said which party controls Congress is a motivating factor
• Support for candidates who want to maintain protections for pre-existing conditions is off the charts
• By double-digit numbers, voters trust the Democrats more than Republicans to deal with healthcare-- from improving rural healthcare and dealing with the opioid epidemic to reducing healthcare costs and maintaining Medicaid expansion.
• Trump's approval was 40% and his disapproval 54% (-14%)
• Congressional generic ballot question went for the Democrats by 12%

This was basically about Obamacare in 2 swing states, Florida and Nevada:

And this was about passing Medicare-For-All in the same 2 swing states:

The poll the AP released shows Trump with a similarly devastating disapproval number-- 59% (45% strongly) to just 40% who approve (21% strongly). Far more people disapproval of the whole Kavanaugh scandal-- just 35% approve and 43% disapprove, with 85% of voters saying it is a very important issue for them.

Jesse Lee at the Center for American Progress released a very different-- but also very devastating page of numbers. as we've been making clear over the last month, Lee points out that "An increasing number of Republican incumbents are running television ads claiming that they support protections for people with pre-existing conditions, despite their votes in Congress being wholly inconsistent with this rhetoric." The worst of the Republicans in strongly contested races voted for legislation that would repeal protections for pre-existing conditions did so NINE times. Some weren't in Congress long enough to vote against healthcare 9 times but still voted against protecting pre-existing conditions whenever Paul Ryan and Kevin McCarthy gave them the chance to.

I've picked out 3 Republicans-- 2 from the chart and Mike McCaul courtesy from Team Jesse Lee-- who did vote against protecting pre-existing conditions all 9 times-- and are now lying about it-- and are also now being challenged by progressive Democrats who say they will co-sponsor the new Medicare-for-All legislation. The other number next to their name indicates approximately how many people in their districts have pre-existing conditions and need the Affordable Care Act in place to maintain healthcare coverage.

• Duncan Hunter (CA-50)- 320,600 vs Ammar Campa-Najjar
• Steve King (IA-04)- 307,900 vs J.D. Scholten
• Michael McCaul (TX-10)- 346,000 vs Mike Siegel

Other Republicans who voted to end pre-existing conditions and are now trying to deceive the voters in their districts include Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), Chris Collins (NY-27), Bruce Poliquin (ME-02), Mimi Walters (CA-45) and Donald Bacon (NE-02). Collins isn't on the list either, but he voted to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions FIVE times, even though his district, NY-27, has 305,600 residents with pre-existing conditions. His opponent, Nate McMurray, is running on Medicare-For-All and is now exactly tied with Collins. You can contribute to the progressive candidates who have told us they will co-sponsor Medicare-For-All after they're sworn in in January, by tapping on the ActBlue thermometer on the right.

This week the Bangor Daily News used Poliquin's lies on the issue to explain why they had, in part, decided to endorse Jared Golden:

"Last year, Rep. Bruce Poliquin voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act and replace it with an inferior plan with weaker protections for those with pre-existing conditions that would have led to more than 23 million Americans losing their health insurance by 2026. The House bill that he supported would have been especially harmful to rural areas, like Maine’s 2nd Congressional District... The district deserves a representative who better reflects its needs and values. Jared Golden, a Marine Corps veteran and legislative leader, would be that representative. On health care, which voters have identified as their top concern in this election, Golden would be a vote in Congress to protect and improve the Affordable Care Act while working toward a more permanent solution to extend health insurance to more Americans while also reducing costs. He supports allowing people between the ages of 55 and 65 to buy into Medicare as a step toward universal health care. Contrary to Poliquin’s scary claims, this is not radical and it will not end Medicare coverage for senior. It would simply allow more Americans to participate in a health insurance program that works-- more efficiently than most privately run insurance plans."

It’s official: the 2018 midterms are about health care. In the period between September 18 and October 15, nearly half (45.9 percent) of airings in federal races mentioned the topic while nearly a third (30.2 percent) of gubernatorial airings did the same. Although both parties are mentioning health care, the topic is most prominent in ads supporting Democrats, appearing in 54.5 percent of pro-Democratic airings.

As shown in Figure 1, health care appeared in a third (33.9 percent) of all pro-Republican ads aired in federal races in 2010 (following passage of the Affordable Care Act), but the issue declined in prominence in the following election cycles (appearing in 28.4 percent of pro-Republican airings in 2012, in 20.8 percent in 2014 and in 16 percent in 2016). Mentions of health care in pro-Republican ads airing in federal races jumped in 2018, however, appearing in 31.5 percent of ad airings.