Polling Stoopid-- Take Montana

How much damage is Trump doing to GOP candidates in red states like Montana?

Sunday, I noted that when you examine flippable districts, the Democrats' ceiling for a net gain is 88 seats. No one thinks the Democrats are going to win 88 seats-- not even me-- but they're going to be closer to 88 than the 23 reporters who don't know anything about electoral politics, nor the properties of a wave, keep writing about as the goal. Steven Shepard was doing just that at Politico yesterday.

Remember back in ancient times when Rasmussen was the joke of the polling industry and when every race they called was wrong and people called them the Republican polling firm? They're still that horrible. But they're not the worst any longer; the hokey, gimmicky NY Times/Siena poll is. And that's the one that other reporters use to parrot predictions. How many other polls call people at 11pm?

How about this poll for a laughing stock: the University of Montana's Big Sky poll, the mirror of image of Rasmussen? First a little background on Montana: The state's PVI is R+11, redder than Georgia, Mississippi, Indiana and Missouri. Obama lost both times he ran and Trump won the state 56.5% to 35.9%. The last time Jon Tester was up for reelection he won-- by the skin of his teeth-- against Denny Rehberg 236,123 (48.6%) to 218,051 (44.9%). It was even closer in 2006 (a Democratic wave year) when he beat crooked Republican Conrad Burns 199,845 (49.2%) to 196,283 (48.3%). But the Big Sky poll shows all bad news for Republicans, starting with job performance:

• Trump- 44% positive to 56% negative
• Sen. Steve Daines (R)- 37% postive to 63% negative
• Rep. Greg Gianforte (R)- 34% positive to 66% negative
• Gov. Steve Bullock (D)- 57% postive to 43% negative
• Sen. Jon Tester (D)- 55% positive to 45% negative

The poll got even more mind-boggling when they asked likely voters who they plan to vote for in the two statewide races next month. In the House race, they picked Democrat Kathleen Williams with 51% over GOP incumbent Greg Gianforte with 38%. It's worth mentioning that Gianforte has raised (including $1.5 of his own cash) around $7 million to less than a million by Williams. Montana is not one of the 88 districts in my most optimistic analysis! The 538 House forecaster gives her a 26.6% chance to win the seat:

And in the U.S. Seat race, Tester wipes the floor with Republican Matt Rosendale 56% to 32%... more in line with what other polls are finding. The 10 polls conducted since June have all found Tester ahead. Tester raised $14,093,719 to Rosendale's $1,966,002. Republican SuperPACs have thrown in around $10 attacking Tester and Democratic SuperPACs have spent around $8 million attacking Roasendale.

Don't get too excited about the House seat; this poll is absurd. Good ad though: