Anti-Red Wave Likely To Sweep Carlos Curbelo Away, Despite Lots Of Advantages, Including A Weak Opponent

Total lesser-of-two evils race (FL-26)

In August GBA Strategies, working for the DCCC, polled FL-26 voters and found incumbent Carlos Curbelo 7 points ahead of Democratic challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. Yesterday the same firm found leading Mucarsel-Powell leading Curbelo 50-48%.

The district includes all of the southern tip of Florida from the southern part of Miami-Dade, west of Kendall and Monroe County, through Homestead, all of the Everglades National Park and all of the Keys from Biscayne National Park to Key West. It has grown increasingly blue in recent years, having given Obama a 51.5-47.9% win over McCain, a 55.4-43.9% win over Romney and then Hillary an even more significant 56.8-40.5% win over Trump. Conservative Democrats have disappointed the district but the DCCC insists on them-- and loses. The PVI is now D+6 and only the DCCC could lose that kind of a district. Only a wave could save them from themselves.

Mucarsel-Powell is exactly what the DCCC wants, a New Dem from the Republican wing of the party. But if the wave sweeps her in this cycle, she'll lose in 2022.

Curbelo is no slouch and he's putting up a good fight against a mediocre candidate but a wave is a wave and even his fundraising advantage-- $3,708,783 to $1,871,929-- won't save him. The DCCC, which isn't spending money on progressives, has spent $2,526,606 to bolster Mucarsel-Powell so far while the NRCC has kicked in $1,954,114 for Curbelo. Ryan's SuperPAC hasn't jumped into this one yet.

The Miami Herald reported last week that she's outspending Curbelo on TV. Big waste of money, but she's likely to win anyway because of the wave, the wave, the wave.

Mucarsel-Powell and her Democratic allies are spending around $1 million on bilingual television and radio advertising this week, a spending pace that’s been in place since mid-September, according to a source familiar with media buying in the district. Though Mucarsel-Powell hasn’t been able to raise more money than Curbelo, one of the GOP’s best fundraisers, she’s outspending him.

The aggressive pace is shifting momentum in one of the nation’s most watched congressional races, in which Curbelo has seen his chances of reelection improve in the eyes of most prognosticators in recent weeks despite a national environment that favors Democrats. Mucarsel-Powell has peppered the airwaves with a biographical ad and an ad that touts Democrats’ efforts on healthcare in a district where more than 90,000 people are enrolled in the Affordable Care Act.


...Curbelo’s unfavorable ratings have jumped according to the poll, while his favorable ratings have remained the same since July. The poll gives Curbelo a 47 percent favorable rating and a 40 percent unfavorable rating, while Mucarsel-Powell has a 32 percent favorable rating and an 18 percent unfavorable rating, up from 14 percent favorable and 8 percent unfavorable in July. Donald Trump’s approval is also under water in the district, though Curbelo won reelection by 12 percentage points in 2016 while Trump lost the district by more than 14 percentage points.

“Voters like Mucarsel-Powell as they get to know her, and support for her grows,” the polling memo said.

Two other recent polls show the race as a tie.

A poll commissioned last week by the Democratic firm Public Policy Polling showed Mucarsel-Powell with a one-point lead, and a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted at the same time Mucarsel-Powell increased her ad spending showed Curbelo with a slight three-point lead, though both polls were within the margin of error.

But Republicans are trying to portray the still relatively unknown Mucarsel-Powell in a negative light, and they’re also throwing lots of money on TV advertising in one of the country’s most expensive media markets in an environment where other incumbent Republicans are being cut off because their races are seen as unwinnable.



The National Republican Congressional Committee is putting just over $1 million over the next two weeks into a negative ad about Mucarsel-Powell titled “Shady Characters.” The ad seeks to tie her to: a Ukrainian oligarch, who is accused of ordering contract killings, because he partially owned a company that Mucarsel-Powell’s husband, Robert Powell, worked for; the Iranian government, due to Mucarsel-Powell’s support of the Iran nuclear deal; and a Democratic lawmaker accused of sexual assault who chairs a political action committee that contributed to Mucarsel-Powell’s campaign.