You Think New Jersey Is Blue Now? Just Wait 'Til After The Midterms

Today New Jersey's congressional delegation is made up of 7 Democrats and 5 Republicans. Not one of the Democrats is being seriously challenged for reelection-- in fact two, Bill Pacsrell and have no opponents at all. Two of the Republicans, Frank LoBiondo and Don Payne, have no opponent at all. Other Democrats have only pro forma opposition. For example, Don Norcross' GOP opponent, Paul Dilks had raised just $2,300 and Albio Sires' opponent, Republican John Muniz, raised no money and put $250 of his own into his "campaign."

Two of the Republican incumbents, Frank LoBiondo and Rodney Frelinghuysen, are retiring and their seats are likely to flip to Democrats, respectively Jeff Van Drew and Mikie Sherrill.There are also 2 Republicans, Tom MacArthur and Leonard Lance, who are on the verge of losing their re-election bids to Democrats Andy Kim and Tom Malinowski. The only Republican likely to retain his seat is Chris Smith. So... in January the delegation goes from 7 Democrats and 5 Republicans to 11 Democrats and 1 Republican.

One race where the Republican is desperately trying to hold on is in the 7th district, which goes from the Pennsylvania border almost to the Atlantic ocean and includes parts of 6 counties. A third of the voters are from Somerset County, a quarter are from Union County and nearly a fifth live in Hunterdon County. When Leonard Lance was elected it was redder than it is now. Obama lost it both times he ran but in 2016 Hillary edged Trump 48.6% to 47.5%. The PVI is R+3 and the district is a prime target for the DCCC, which recruited a former spy and torture dissembler, Tom Malinowski, as the candidate. Malinowski has raised $2,311,646 to Lance's $1,534,858. Ryan's SuperPAC has thrown $1,576,871 into the race against Malinowski and the Pelosi's superPAC has spent $667,052 against Lance. The criminal No Labels PAC run by Nancy Jacobson and Mark Penn, has put another $91,460 into the race in favor of Lance.

Yesterday Mommouth released district polling that brought Lance and his Republican and No Labels supporters bad news.

That, in great part, is driven by this (Trump disapproval):

Lance has been a Trump enabler and has done several high-profile events with Trump in the district, primarily because Trump has a golf resort (Bedminster) there. His Trump affinity score is way out of whack with the district:

Malinowski benefits from running in a district with a large number of college educated voters who have swung more Democratic in the past two years. But Lance is keeping this race close despite President Donald Trump’s low ratings in the district. New Jersey’s 7th is home to Trump National Golf Club Bedminster, where the president has spent a good deal of time since taking office.

Malinowski is supported by 47% and Lance is supported by 39% of all potential voters-- that is voters who have participated in an election since 2010 or have newly registered to vote (a group that represents about 84% of all registered voters in the district). Another 2% of voters support one of the other candidate running and 12% are undecided.  Lance holds a lead among white voters without a college degree (50% to 36%), while Malinowski has the advantage among college educated white voters (50% to 39%) and non-white voters regardless of education (64% to 20%).

The Democrat’s lead in this race narrows when applying two different likely voter models. A historical midterm model gives Malinowski an insignificant 46% to 43% edge over Lance. A model that projects a possible turnout surge in Democratic precincts gives Malinowski a lead of 47% to 41%. Neither margin in these two likely voter models is statistically significant.

“The fundamentals of this swing district favor Malinowski, but he has not been able to break clear of Lance’s deep roots here,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.

New Jersey’s 7th district voted for Mitt Romney for president by 6 points in 2012, but swung to Hillary Clinton by one point in 2016. Lance ran more than 10 points ahead of the top of the GOP ticket in both years, winning his House seat by 17 points in 2012 and 11 points in 2016.

Lance currently holds the lead in his home base of Hunterdon County (49% to 38%), but not elsewhere in the district.  Malinowski is running slightly ahead of Lance in the Morris and Warren portion of the district (44% to 38%), which is an area that usually supports Republicans. Malinowski maintains a large lead in the historically Democratic-leaning Union and Essex portion of the district (54% to 35%). Perhaps the most interesting part of the district is the largest section in Somerset County, where Malinowski holds a 49% to 38% edge over Lance. This part of the district backed Romney by 5 points in 2012, but swung to give Clinton a nearly 6 point win four years later. This is also the part of the district where the president’s golf club is located.

Overall, just 39% of district voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president while a majority of 55% disapprove. The gap is even wider when looking at voters with “strong” opinions of the president-- just 26% strongly approve while 47% strongly disapprove. These are the lowest net ratings for Trump recorded by Monmouth in its polls of 12 bellwether House districts in this cycle-- only Virginia’s 10th district comes close. The president’s rating is a negative 36% approve to 59% disapprove in the Somerset portion of the district, which is nearly as bad as the 32% to 64% rating he gets in the more traditionally Democratic area of Union/Essex. Opinion of the president is slightly positive in Hunterdon (48% to 45%) and slightly negative in Morris/Warren (43% to 49%).

The poll finds that 62% of potential NJ-07 voters say it is very important for them to cast a vote for Congress that shows how they feel about the president-- including 71% of Trump opponents and 67% of Trump supporters. The Monmouth University Poll also finds that 61% of voters have a lot of interest in the election, which includes 69% of Malinowski supporters and 67% of Lance supporters.

“There’s not a lot of difference in enthusiasm levels between the two camps. It’s just that voters in this wealthy suburban district have swung more Democratic largely due to problems they have with their presidential neighbor,” said Murray.

More NJ-07 voters say that they would rather see Democrats (46%) than Republicans (32%) in control of Congress. Another 19% say that party control does not matter to them.

When asked to choose the top issue in their vote for Congress from a list of six policy areas, 26% of NJ-07 voters pick health care. This is followed by immigration (18%), gun control (14%), tax policy (14%), job creation (11%), and abortion (6%). Malinowski has the advantage on handling voters’ top concern, with 31% saying they trust the Democrat more on keeping health care affordable to 21% who say they trust Lance more on this issue. Another 20% say they trust both candidates equally.

Last year’s tax reform legislation, the GOP’s hallmark policy achievement which Lance voted against, plays poorly in this district.  Just 34% approve of the plan and 49% disapprove. Nearly half (45%) of NJ-07 voters say they expect their federal tax bill to go up under the new tax rules, just 20% think their taxes will go down, and 27% say their federal taxes will likely stay the same as they are now.

“It’s hard to buck a trend where voters really dislike both your party’s leader and signature accomplishment. But Lance is keeping this race close on the back of his reputation as a moderate as well as the goodwill he has built with constituents during his time in office.  It remains to be seen whether this will be enough to hang onto his seat,” said Murray.