Thursday, September 13, 2018

When Will The Hollow Trump Economy Crash?


Yesterday, Rachel Feintzeig reported for the Wall Street Journal that the Republican tax scam has specifically helped executives afford even fancier airplanes. "The recent changes to the tax code," she wrote, "are giving business executives a new perk: the opportunity to deduct the entirety of a corporate-jet purchase. A 100% tax write off was one of the GOP changes to the tax code. Maybe something will trickle down.
The write-off does allow some buyers to splurge on bigger, faster jets that cost between $7 million and $10 million that they otherwise might not afford, Ms. Meiners-Levy said.

Jessica Mah, head of San Francisco accounting-software firm inDinero Inc., has been testing out potential planes in anticipation of buying next year. She has a budget of as much as $10 million, assuming she can get the 100% deduction.

“It goes from being completely unaffordable to being like, ‘Oh my God, not only is this not unaffordable but it’s kind of a no-brainer,’ ” she said.
The Center for American Progress weighed in to point out that GOP tax scam 2.0, which Republicans are trying to ram through Congress now, would hand a tax break to the wealthiest 1 percent big enough to buy more than 13,000 yachts every year. Vern Buchanan (R-FL) sits on the House committee that was charged with drafting the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act-- a bill that gave him millions of dollars in special tax breaks. On the same day that he voted to pass the bill, Rep. Buchanan purchased a brand new 73-foot yacht with a base price of nearly $3 million.

Nancy PAY-GO Pelosi chimed in that "the deficit-exploding GOP tax scam for the rich continues to enrich big corporations and the wealthiest few, while threatening the future of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.  That’s why Democrats are fighting for real, bipartisan tax reform that creates jobs, reduces the deficit and is For The People."

Going Down by Nancy Ohanian

Last week, in his newsletter, Popular Information, Judd Legum did a piece called "Trump's Imaginary economy." He wrote that "Kevin Hassett, the chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers [paint] a fantastical picture of an idyllic American economy. The only thing that was missing was a chocolate river: wages are booming, business investment is spiking, and a trillion dollars in corporate tax cuts is paying for itself. And we have one person to thank: Donald Trump. None of this, however, is true. Hassett's apocryphal economy has little in common with the real thing." And yet... the Republicans want to keep digging.
The Trump administration is eager to make the case that the tax cuts have delivered. Why? Because they want more.

The administration and Republican leaders in Congress are currently working on a new wave of tax cuts that will be unveiled sometime this month.

The centerpiece of the proposal is to make the individual tax cuts enacted in December 2017 permanent. That legislation created massive permanent tax cuts for corporations but its individual tax cuts, which are heavily tilted toward the wealthy, expire around 2025.

The cost of the extension would be about $600 billion.

The effort is expected to struggle to get the necessary votes in the House and has no chance of passing the Senate.

One reason: Support for the original tax legislation is languishing below 40%.
A few days ago Bloomberg News ran a piece by Cormac Mullen, Goldman Bear-Market Risk Indicator at Highest Since 1969: Chart. "Goldman Sachs' Bull/Bear Index, which is based on measures of equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve, is now at levels last seen in 1969. While the gauge is at levels that have historically preceded a bear market, Goldman strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note last week that a long period of relatively low returns from stocks is a more likely alternative."

I asked my financial advisor and she agreed that it was coming but said "not yet." That wasn't comforting so I asked her when. She e-mailed me "Year end to April data dependent... I am watching. Hold for now."

These are the guidelines by which the leader of our county runs his life-- always has and always will-- which is why I'm nervous about investments:

Labels: ,


At 2:24 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

While there is no mystery at all to the Nazi tactics to fool their Nazi voters into eagerly voting for Nazis... the equally disingenuous horse shit from Pelosi was not dissected.

to whit: "... That’s why Democrats are fighting for real, bipartisan tax reform that creates jobs, reduces the deficit and is For The People."

1) there is no tax reform plan
1a) they don't create jobs unless in asia or mexico
1b) they only ever reduced the deficit when concurrent dotcom and y2k bubbles created jobs
1c) they haven't been 'for the people' since LBJ helped the black ones in the '60s
2) all of the 'crap reform plans are mere tweaks to the Armageddon plans implemented by the Nazis.
3) the 'craps prefer to ratfuck their voters not through tax policy but through free trade policy and unregulated capitalism (re: zero premium controls in ACA...). But they're not averse to ratfucking tax policy, as long as they can blame the Nazis for it. Either way, Pelosi is a lying sack of shit.

So why doesn't DWT dissect this? I still smell sheepdog. It's like I'm in the middle of a whole kennel of sheepdogs every time I read here... and nobody has cleaned for a week.

At 3:10 PM, Blogger Alice said...

When you talk to your friends on Capitol Hill, do they realize that there will be another crash?

At 4:04 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Did I not read recently that the national deficit is climbing noticeably? Yet the GOP wants to give yet another huge slice to the extremely wealthy, Pelosi is already positioning to demonstrate to the donors that she will help any effort to gut Social Security and Medicare, and Trump thinks that we won't notice the damage to the economy once he extends the life of tax breaks for the Middle Class now scheduled to phase out in just a few years.

Yeah, that choice between Republican and Republican-lite looks better and better every damn day. /s

At 7:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The economy shall crash. that much cannot be denied.

But it isn't just the trump influence that will create the smoldering hole.

Bank fraud is, by convention since obamanation, legal.
Foreclosure fraud is, by convention since obamanation (and kamala harris), legal.
The federal debt is 1.3 X GDP and growing. Only the rate of growth fluctuates.
The interest on the federal debt is not now an untenable fraction of the budget (if we actually had a budget), but with interest rates climbing, it shall be by 2020.
ANY downtick in jobs and, more important, total wages in this economy may trigger another domino effect similar to 2008.
Trade/tariff wars can create a downtick in jobs/wages.
outsourcing and plant relocation SHALL create downward pressure on jobs/wages.
uncertainty puts downward pressure on investment and jobs/wages.

Also remember... or consider since most probably don't know this, the pain is never felt right away. Clinton legalized and enabled fraud and greed but the crash didn't occur for 10 years. Reagan legalized and enabled fraud in S&Ls and the crash only took 6 years.

Trump's tax and trade lunacy have only been in effect for 2 years or less. It'll happen, but maybe not for another couple of years. Even compounding the insanity with another tax cut might not hasten it much.

But it cannot NOT happen.

The incentives for greed and fraud are all there.
And there exists nothing... AT ALL... to prevent it nor to deal with it when (not if) it happens.

After all, to deal with 2008, obamanation and his goldman-sachs cabal of greed only dug the hole deeper for the next crisis. They didn't fix shit. Nobody that committed fraud went to prison and all are, in fact, still in position to create the next, deeper, crisis.

And neither party will do shit to help anyone but themselves.

Sooooo... let's absolutely empower one of those same parties to maintain the SOS... shall we?


Post a Comment

<< Home