How Badly Will Kavanaugh Hurt Republicans At The Polls?

GOP: Blood on their... hands by Nancy Ohanian

Even Republicans in Congress were uncomfortable with Grassley's botched hearing yesterday. There seems to be a consensus that Rachel Mitchell was a really bad idea. In the White House, one official called the hearing "a disaster" for Kavanaugh’s confirmation hopes. Worse still, there is speculation that this mess is making the midterms even more perilous for Republican incumbents and Republican candidates trying to hold onto open red seats.

The cascade of sexual misconduct allegations against Kavanaugh from decades ago and President Trump’s aggressive defense of the federal appellate judge he nominated for the bench have consumed the news and captivated the nation, drowning out House Republicans laboring to survive the brewing Democratic storm by running on a growing economy and booming jobs market.

Unfolding weeks before critical midterm elections, the Senate confirmation process was poised to drive a deeper wedge between House Republicans and female voters in key suburban battlegrounds. Fresh public opinion polls showed doubts about Kavanaugh on the rise, a headache for Republicans possibly made worse by Trump’s suggestions that the alleged victims are lying.

“It’s very unhelpful. The noise never ends. It’s almost like we refuse to talk about the economy,” a Washington-based Republican strategist intimately involved in the party’s campaign to defend its 23-seat House majority said.

“Living in the suburbs, I don’t know a woman that doesn’t have a story of an attempted sexual assault, groping, something that made them feel uncomfortable or threatened,” added a Republican operative in the Midwest.

The Washington Examiner interviewed more than a half-dozen senior Republican strategists participating in operations to protect the party’s House and Senate majorities. All requested anonymity in order to speak candidly... The president compared the situation to personal experience; he has long maintained that the more than a dozen women that have accused him of sexual misconduct were lying.

From The Trump Code

But the polling shows that Kavanaugh is losing the public relations battle.

Nationally, just 27 percent of women back his confirmation to the Supreme Court in a new survey from Morning Consult survey, a pollster than tends to give Trump higher marks than others. This has some Republican insiders fretting that the Kavanaugh episode could be disastrous for a House majority in jeopardy largely because disaffected women voters are driving traditionally conservative, suburban districts toward the Democrats.

"It's definitely not good, although we don't have much further to fall with suburban women anyhow," a veteran Republican strategist said.

“This is yet another instance where the main topic of conversation and coverage is favorable to the Democrats, and that doesn't help House Republicans with six weeks to go,” a Republican operative running a campaign in a targeted district added.