Election 2018-- Pennsylvania

"An essential motivating force"

I wish I had a poll of every state like the one Franklin & Marshall just released about Pennsylvania. These kinds of polls mean so much more than the national ones we keep getting bombarded with. A tiny bit of background: Cook assigns them an even PVI, which is silly and should be more like a D+1 or 2. Obama beat McCain 3,276,363 (54.5%) to 2,655,885 (44.2%) and then beat Romney 2,990,274 (51.97%) to 2,680,434 (46.59%). The Democrats couldn't have picked a worse candidate than Clinton and, even with Russian targeting in the state, Trump only beat her 2,970,733 (48.18%) to 2,926,441 (47.48%).

Now, on to the new poll. "The August 2018 Franklin & Marshall College Poll finds that more than half (54%) of the state’s registered voters are 'very interested' in the 2018 mid-term elections; more Democrats (60%) than Republicans (53%) or independents (33%) say they are 'very interested.' At the moment, both Governor Tom Wolf and Senator Bob Casey hold comfortable leads against their Republican challengers, but a large portion of voters, notably Republicans and independents, are undecided in those races. Neither Republican candidate is well known yet among voters. At the moment, Democrats have an advantage in voter interest and turnout... Trump is an essential motivating force in the upcoming mid-term elections. More registered voters prefer the Democratic candidate for U.S. House (48%) than the Republican candidate for U.S. House (39%); two in three (67%) of those who plan to vote for a Democratic candidate are casting their ballot mainly as a vote against President Trump and Republicans in Congress, while three in four (74%) of those who plan to vote for a Republican candidate are casting their ballot mainly as a vote to support President Trump and the Republicans in Congress. Moreover, the most common reason voters provide for supporting their U.S. Senate choice relates to the President."

Casey seems safe in his Senate reelection bid. His lead over Republican Lou Barletta (a Trump-endorsed extremist) is 47-34% among likely voters. Tom Wolf is doing even better against state Senator Scott Wagner in this gubernatorial reelection bid-- Wolf 52% and Wagner 35%. It will be helpful to down-ballot Democrats to have these two at the top of the ticket.

Comparing 2018 electoral indicators to indicators from the prior three gubernatorial elections in Pennsylvania provides some context about what might be expected this year. In the 2006 election, Democrats retained the governor’s office, defeated an incumbent Republican U.S. senator, and picked up four U.S. house seats held by Republicans in a year that showed many favorable indicators for them. Conversely, in 2010 these electoral indicators showed Republicans had a real advantage and Republicans won the governor’s office, a U.S. Senate seat, and 12 of 19 U.S. House seats. In 2014, the electoral indicators gave no clear advantage to either party and this was reflected in the final vote: Democrats managed to recapture the governor’s office while Republicans captured 13 of the state’s 18 U.S. House seats.

Currently, optimism about the direction of the state is similar to 2006, and much better than in 2010 or 2014. The job performance rating for the incumbent governor is also similar to 2006, when the relatively popular incumbent Ed Rendell won re-election, and is much better than Governor Corbett’s job performance ratings were in 2010. The incumbent president’s popularity is similar for all these elections, which was an advantage for Democrats in 2006, a disadvantage in 2010 and 2014, and is again an advantage for Democrats in this cycle. President Trump’s relatively low approval ratings could hurt Republican candidates this year. At the moment, Democrats appear to have an advantage in voter interest and turnout

The generic ballot looks excellent for Democrats. 2006 was a good Democratic wave cycle and at this point in the wave Democrats were at +7 D. Today they are at +9 D. Right now there are 12 Republicans and 6 Democrats in the state's congressional delegation. It looks to me like January 2019 will see a Pennsylvania delegation with as many as 11 Democrats and as few as 7 Republicans. That's far bluer-- and more optimistic-- than anyone else is predicting. Race by race, these are the candidates I think will win in November:

• PA-01- Scott Wallace (D)
• PA-02- Brendan Boyle (D)
• PA-03- Dwight Evans (D)
• PA-04- Madeleine Dean (D)
• PA-05- Mary Scanlon (D)
• PA-06- Chrissy Houlahan (D)
• PA-07- Susan Wild (D)
• PA-08- Matt Cartwright (D)
• PA-09- Dan Meuser (R)
• PA-10- Scott Perry (R)
• PA-11- Jess King (D)
• PA-12- Tom Marino (R)
• PA-13- John Joyce (R)
• PA-14- Guy Reschenthaler (R)
• PA-15- Glenn Thompson (R)
• PA-16- Mike Kelly (R)
• PA-17- Conor Lamb (D)
• PA-18- Mike Doyle (D)

A couple of random findings from the poll (of likely voters):

1- 67% think the Russian government interfered with the 2016 Presidential election

22% feel Russia didn't

2- 71% think Russian election interference a threat to national security that the U.S. must address

25% think it isn't serious enough to worry about

3- What do people say their primary source of news is?

• Cable TV (Fox, CNN, MSNBC)- 28%
• Internet (other than social media)- 25%
• Network TV (ABC, CBS, NBC)- 20%
• Radio- 9%
• Daily newspaper- 7%
• Social media (Twitter, Facebook, SnapChat, etc)- 5%
• Neighborhood newspaper- 2%
• Other- 9%

4- A question just for cable tv respondents- Which cable network do you rely on most for news?

• Fox- 43%
• CNN- 22%
• MSNBC- 20%
• PBS- 3%
• other- 7%