Can Gary Johnson Really Scramble The New Mexico Senate Race? I Doubt It

Gary Johnson was a Republican in 1995 when he was elected-- and then reelected in in 1999-- governor of New Mexico, a swing state at the time. With a D+3 PVI, the state is pretty reliably Democratic now. Obama beat McCain 56.1% to 41.8%; Obama beat Romney 53% to 42.8% and even Hillary won, beating Trump 48.3% to 40.0%. In 2016, Johnson ran for president as a Libertarian and won 4,489,235 votes (3.27%) nationally. In New Mexico, however, he took 9.34% of the vote, far more than in any other state. After losing, though, he said he would never run for office again. But... it looks like he's going to. This time for Martin Heinrich's Senate seat back in New Mexico. Heinrich has been a pretty good senator and sports an "A" rating from ProgressivePunch. He was universally favored to win reelection in November. Even if Johnson does run, you'd be foolish to bet against Heinrich.

Yesterday I was working with some of the guys putting together the VoteCommonGood road tour and someone suggested Albuquerque as a good place to do an event and I said there was no need because the two important races, Debra Haaland for Congress and Martin Heinrich for Senate were both in the bag. I suggested Los Cruces instead, where we can help Xochitl Torres Small in a much redder district. Luckily, if Johnson actually does run, we can do Heinrich some good down there too.

As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline Heinrich was way ahead-- $7,164,939 raised, compared to Republican Mark Rich's $689,177-- $198,052 of which came out of his own personal funds-- and Libertarian Aubrey Dunn's $31,226, most of which also self-financed. Dunn is universally expected to drop out in a few days and Johnson's consultant, Ron Nielson, told the AP that Johnson is "strongly considering" breaking his promise to retire from elective politics and give it another try. "He is weighing it over right now," Nielson said. "He doesn't want to get into a race he can't win." Hope springs eternal.



In a 2015 interview (above) he spoke out about how Trump appeals to "racists" he wants nothing to do with. Smearing Trump's supporters is quite a bit different from slamming Trump. To get into the double digits in New Mexico this year Johnson would have to win over Republicans who are not impressed with Trump. In early March he did an interview with Reason.com and criticizied Trump's tone as "absolutely awful," while admitting he admires "some of his policies, such as those regarding regulation and corporate taxes." He also said Hillary "would probably be equally as bad... I think it would be horrible if Hillary would have been president, but I think Trump's got his horrible also." He's likely to take more votes from Mark Rich than from Heinrich.