Anthony Kennedy Just Did The Worst Damage Possible To America

In 2016 Trump did well in states with quite a few Democratic senators coming up for reelection in November. Anthony Kennedy didn't just fuck America; he really fucked these senators in red and swing states Trump won:

• Joe Manchin (WV)- PVI- R+20
• Heidi Heitkamp (ND)- PVI- R+16
• Jon Tester (MT)- PVI- R+11
• Joe Donnelly (IN)- - PVI- R+9
• Claire McCaskill (MO)- PVI- R+9
• Sherrod Brown (OH)- PVI- R+3
• Bill Nelson (FL)- PVI- R+2
• Bob Casey (PA)- PVI- even
• Tammy Baldwin (WI)- PVI- even

My guess is that Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, Sherrod Brown, all in the swingy districts, have the intestinal fortitude to do the right thing. Bill Nelson is a political coward and may well go over to the Dark Side if he calculates that he'll lose more votes by voting against a Trump appointee than he loses by voting for a Trump appointee. I'm going to also guess that Jon Tester, despite being in that heavy a red state, will also find a way to vote no. McCaskill may as well. But Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly? Lost causes. Those millions the Koch network is putting into the nomination battle? Much of that will be spent in West Virginia, North Dakota and Indiana to persuade Manchin, Heitkamp and Donnelly to stick with the nominee and even more will be spent in Montana, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and especially Florida pummeling Tester, McCaskill, Brown, Casey, Baldwin and Nelson. McConnell doesn't need any of them to confirm the nominee; the Koch and GOP just want to use the issue to build a case against them for the election.

If any of them vote for the nominee, it will anger base voters, who may lose their enthusiasm to even go to the polls and if they vote against the nominee it could give the GOP just what they've been lacking all year: enthusiasm from voters on their side. Koch's ads will help that along in a big way.

Miriam Khan at ABC reported the GOP strategy is a walking nightmare for the Democrats-- what I meant by saying Anthony Kennedy fucked America and fucked the Democrats. Rick Klein and John Verhovek reminded ABC News viewers already had "a bad hand that they could play into something worse. What may help their chances in House races may hurt them in the Senate, with an already restive base primed for the fight of all fights with Trump on any number of fronts." Even if-- unlikely-- the two pro-Choice Republican senators, Susan Collins (ME) and Lisa Murkowsky (AK), vote against the nominee, McConnell knows he can get a confirmation vote with Manchin, Donnelly and especially Heitkamp (as well as Alabama's Doug Jones, who isn't up for reelection this year).

Republicans had their eyes set on the U.S. Senate seat held by North Dakota Democrat Heidi Heitkamp long before Donald Trump ever came on the political scene, but last night the president wasted no time in joining the party's pile-on.

"You need a senator that doesn't just talk like they’re from North Dakota, you need a senator that votes like they're from North Dakota," Trump said Wednesday night in Fargo alongside the GOP nominee running against Heitkamp, Rep. Kevin Cramer.

Heitkamp, who often touts her working relationship with Trump, is one of 10 Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018 in states he won in the 2016 election, and the wily politician wasted no time in casting the president's visit as a plus for the state, while maintaining her own political independence.

"I don’t answer to a political party or president, I only answer to North Dakotans who deserve an independent voice in the Senate," Heitkamp said in statement sent out immediately after the rally. "That’s why I’ve always been eager to work across the aisle-- including with the president-- to get results for our state, and today’s rally hasn’t changed that."

Cramer played up his standing as a stalwart Trump ally, pledging to be with the president "100 percent" at every turn.

...Drawing party lines in a red state Trump won by nearly 20 points, Republican Senate nominee Mike Braun is predicting his opponent across the aisle, incumbent Sen. Joe Donnelly, will support whomever Trump nominates. But the prediction comes with an allegation that could reflect the nation’s partisan divide-- in a statement, Braun says the red-state Democrat will support the president’s choice because "it's an election year.”

"I expect Senator Donnelly to vote for President Trump's nominee to distract from his liberal record," Braun said in a statement. "Hoosiers won't be fooled by Senator Donnelly's election year pandering."

As one of a handful of moderate Democrats in the Senate, Donnelly has voted with Trump 62 percent of the time-- including being the third Democrat to back Justice Neil Gorsuch at the time of his nomination.

OK, take Donnelly, for example-- a fluke, who is only a senator because the GOP accidentally nominated a mad mad extremist who acted like a mad man extremist during the election campaign and turned off independents and the few more moderate Republican voters in Indiana. I don't know if Donnelly could win again no matter how he votes. But what would you rather have, another Trump nominee being confirmed or another senator who can't vote right when we need him most?


UPDATE: The Trumpanzee-Anthony Kennedy Connection

Justice Kennedy, according to the Washington Post likely was tipped off that his son, a friend of the Trump kids, was about to be investigated in the Russia probe, so instead of recusing himself, he "retires" right before midterms so the GOP, who likely will take big loses in November, can rush through a nomination. Maggie Haberman and Adam Lipton reported, for the NY Times this morning, that Justin Kennedy, Anthony's son, "spent more than a decade at Deutsche Bank, eventually rising to become the bank’s global head of real estate capital markets, and he worked closely with Mr. Trump when he was a real estate developer, according to two people with knowledge of his role. During Mr. Kennedy’s tenure, Deutsche Bank became Mr. Trump’s most important lender, dispensing well over $1 billion in loans to him for the renovation and construction of skyscrapers in New York and Chicago at a time other mainstream banks were wary of doing business with him because of his troubled business history."