Friday, January 19, 2018

Republicans Are In A State Of Denial About What's Headed Their Way In November


Trygve Olson-- sounds like a Norwegian name-- is a national Republican strategist who is from Wisconsin’s 10th senatorial district, the site of the GOP donnybrook Tuesday. "If Republicans are losing districts like this," he said after the counting was done, "they should be in complete panic mode about the tsunami heading their way." In fact, Tuesday saw 4 special elections in very red districts that had gone to Trump in 2016 by very wide margins. Although just one flipped from red to blue, all 4 swung heavily towards the Democrats. These were the results:
WI- SD-10-- a 26 point swing towards the Democrat
WI- AD-58-- a 25 point swing towards the Democrat
SC- HD-99-- a 15 point swing towards the Democrat
IA- HD-6-- an 18 point swing towards the Democrat
So that's an unweighted average swing of about 20 points towards the Democrat in very Republican territory. Veteran GOP strategist Curt Anderson told The Hill that he's "not advising my clients to panic, but if it’s a choice between panic and complacency, I suggest panic. Every Republican candidate should approach this election as if we start 5 points behind." Really? 5 points? That sounds delusional. What will it look like if what happened on Tuesday happens on a federal level in November? The simple answer: the GOP will be wiped out. Let's take, for example, the 15 races where Blue America has endorsed candidates (or is in the final stage of vetting candidates) in districts held by a Republican incumbents that Trump won. So not included are the DCCC theory-of-the-cycle districts where Hillary beat Trump. Below you will see by what percentage Trump won the district.
IA-03 (Austin Frerick)- 4 points
KS-04 (James Thompson)- 27 points
IL-13 (David Gill)- 6 points
PA-16 (Jess King)- 7 points
IN-09 (Dan Canon)- 27 points
NC-05 (Jenny Marshall)- 18 points
MI-06 (Paul Clements)- 8 points
TX-21 (Derrick Crowe)- 10 points
NY-02 (DuWayne Gregory)- 9 points
ME-02 (Jared Golden)- 10 points
OK-05 (Tom Guild)- 13 points
WI-01 (Randy Bryce)- 10 points
WA-05 (Lisa Brown)- 13 points
NE-02 (Kara Eastman)- 2 points
IA-04 (J.D. Scholten)- 23 points

As you can see, a 20 point nationwide swing would sweep away 12 of the 15 Republican incumbents in the Trump districts. That means the hardest work is needed in KS-04, IN-09 and IA-04. Be my guest, please.
National GOP leaders met at the Salamander Resort in Virginia over the weekend to discuss the 2018 campaign.

Sources familiar with the meeting say leaders left the resort acknowledging they would lose House seats in November.

Still, many were hopeful that economic growth and the tax cuts that haven’t yet made their way to voters’ paychecks will boost the party between now and Election Day.

House Republican Conference Chairwoman Cathy McMorris Rodgers (Wash.), the fourth-ranking Republican in leadership, said the discussion at the retreat reinforced how important it will be for Republicans to “win hearts and minds on the tax package.”

“People in this country need to realize what is driving economic growth and job creation and opportunity,” she said.

Democrats need to flip 24 seats to gain control of the House.

McMorris Rodgers told The Hill she believes Republicans would maintain their majority in the House through 2018.
McMorris Rodgers is wrong-- and not just about the delusional assertion that the GOP is going to hold onto the majority in Congress. It's not likely she'll even be in Congress herself in 2019. As we saw on Tuesday, it's very likely that Eastern Washington voters are going to replace her with the state's former House Majority Leader, Lisa Brown. And Brown is doing all she can to reach out to those voters as directly as she can. Today she told us that "although Paul Ryan’s SuperPAC is opening a field office in Spokane, threatening to flood Eastern Washington with dark money, our supporters are countering it with thousands of contributions. $27 is still a popular amount, but they range on a daily basis from $5 to $500, because people understand how important it is to defeat entrenched leaders who have 'gone Beltway.' More significantly, we have over a thousand people attending training academies, clamoring to register voters and knock on doors from Chewelah to Walla Walla. This is how you take back your country."

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At 10:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Doubtful if they are in denial. You have to know, one would hope, that they don't go around admitting to worry about the backlash from the cluster fuck shit show of a congress and admin.

But they also know this:

The same thing happened with cheney/bush and the 2008 crash. They lost the house in 2006 and in 2008 they lost both branches and SHOULD have been well on their way to permanent irrelevance. But they still had their ace in the hole -- the corrupt feckless democraps.

The democraps refused to act on ANY of their mandate, pretending that their FDR majority was really a minority... and by 2010 so many millions of their voters were so disgusted, the Rs retook both chambers of congress and acted as the foil to a democrap president who was really one of them and not one of the party of FDR.

2010 will be repeated by 2022 if not before. They know this. I know this. DWT is among many who do not.

At 10:40 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

I suspect the shut down, it it occurs, will work against the Republicans and increase the Blue Wave in November 2018. (If only we last that long - who knows what disasters are in our future.)

Yay for Paul Krugman - I am back to reading him again. He urges the Dems to stay strong and not allow themselves to be blackmailed. Screw the Republicans. Things are so bad, the Dems need to take a stand. Will they?

At 10:58 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I seriously doubt this. Let's begin with the notorious ability of the DINO-Whigs to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Then let's add in the infamous Kris Kobach and his totally illegal Cross Check program to purge voters from their registrations. Then let's include the onerous registration requirements imposed in states such as WI which make it difficult if not impossible to register. And on top of that, all of the usual shenanigans the GOP pulls in order to steal yet another victory knowing that the DINO-Whigs will do nothing about it.

IF I was insane enough to be a Republican, I wouldn't be too worried as long as the nefarious agents all do their jobs as we intend, for the means of maintaining power are only justified in their successes.

At 4:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hone, Paul and A-10:58, you forget that the democraps WILL take a stand... for corporations and billionaire donors. Whenever they fuck up and get a majority again, they'll demand billions to not pass mfa and anything else. They'll get it. And then they'll be voted out again 2 years later.

2009 was only 9 years ago... yet it's as if it were part of the fossil record and only paleontologists can infer what happened... and nobody else cares.

So, yeah, the Nazis are safe in the longer term. They know it.

The democraps' corruption and fecklessness is why trump is now our fuhrer. If the democraps had become the party of FDR in 2009, the Rs might be outnumbered by Greens today.

At 6:56 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"if-if-if-if-if, Say the green bells of Cardiff". Would that they had. They didn't.

What will really happen is the DINO-Whigs will all line up and chant "And what will you give me?" To the mad bulls of Money.

The Bells of Rhymney
The Byrds

At 7:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If the Rs are really looking at a blue wave, you don't think they'd fake a terrorist attack do you? Or start another war? You think trump and that bunch are capable of a reichstad fire type thing that kills a few hundred?

I certainly do... if someone thinks of it. That's their only limiting factor... imagination.

At 9:53 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"If the Rs are really looking at a blue wave, you don't think they'd fake a terrorist attack do you?"

9/11 was easy. Nothing to stop them from doing it again.

"Or start another war?"

It's only a matter of time now. The only question is which nation takes the bait.

"You think trump and that bunch are capable of a reichstad fire type thing that kills a few hundred?"

It's Reichstag, and yes they are certainly capable of doing so. Wait for Trump and certain Republican leaders to not be in DC sometime and watch it disappear in a blinding flash. Instant Trumpocracy.


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