Can Establishment Dems Lose 2 Senate Seats Not Even Republicans Were Hoping For?

Greg Giroux penned an essay for Bloomberg News, All Signs Point to Big Democratic Wins in 2018, which is a hell of a lot more reality-based than the tepid Beltway prognosticators who "think" the Democrats "may" win the 24 seats they need to take over the House again. That was last year's discussion. 12 months on, it's about how many Republicans will be left after the tsunami washes the party away. And is Beto's O'Rourke's second consecutive quarter of outraising Ted Cruz an indication that the Democrats are going to win the Senate as well? "History, demographics and the national mood," wrote Giroux, "are pointing to one conclusion about the 2018 congressional races: Democrats are well-positioned to bring one-party government in Washington under Donald Trump’s presidency to a screeching halt... Even if only one chamber flips to the Democrats, Trump’s ability to impose his agenda would be thwarted, and his administration almost certainly would find itself pinned down by investigations and subpoenas from congressional committees. An analysis by Bloomberg Government of historical data, election maps and public polling points to sweeping Democratic gains in the November election, when all 435 House seats and one-third of the Senate are on the ballot."

Republican pollster Lance Tarrance wrote in a Jan. 5 analysis for Gallup. “Trump’s 20-point approval deficit in recent Gallup polling does not bode well for him, in part because none of the past five presidents saw an increase in their approval rating in the year before their first midterm.”

...The off-year and special elections conducted since Trump took office underscore the Republican challenges.

Democrats won governors’ offices by wide margins in New Jersey and Virginia while also capturing Republican seats in both states’ legislatures, as suburban voters shifted to Democratic candidates. In Alabama, Doug Jones became the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the state in 25 years in a race that featured a scandal-tarred and controversial Republican who divided his own party, even though he had Trump’s endorsement.

“That’s three pretty big canaries in the coal mine that ought to warn you that you’re headed into a turbulent period in the next election,” Cole said.

...Democrats improved their showing in well-educated, historically Republican areas in the 2016 and 2017 elections, so some hard-fought races in the fall will be in the suburbs. Among the House districts that may be in play are those of Representatives Rodney Frelinghuysen and Leonard Lance in New Jersey, John Culberson in the Houston area, Barbara Comstock in the Virginia suburbs near Washington, and Peter Roskam in the Chicago area.

For various reasons-- primarily the GOP-oriented 2018 map-- Giroux is less sanguine about Democratic chances for a Senate takeover. All the Democratic red-state incumbents would have to win and the Democrats would have to pull off wins from two of the worst Senate candidates in recent history-- both handpicked by Chuck Schumer who pretty much always picks losers-- putrid Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) and tepid, pointless Nevada nothing-burger Jacky Rosen. Or one of them plus someone the DSCC and the Democratic DC establishment has been ignoring, Beto O'Rourke. You can contribute to Beto's campaign-- and the other Senate candidates endorsed by Blue America-- by tapping on the ActBlue "Senate 2018" thermometer on the right.

But that doesn't include unexpected stumbles from Senate Democrats that could give the Republicans opportunities they shouldn't even have. Here are two: Pennsylvania and New Jersey. Trump won-- barely, and possibly with actual Russian vote tampering in 3 counties, Luzerne, Erie and Northampton-- Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes 2,970,733 to 2,926,441. That's 44,292 votes (0.72%). Casey is anti-Choice. He always votes that way-- as he did yesterday when he supported the Republicans' very extremist and probably unconstitutional 20-week abortion ban. (Also crossing the aisle on that one were Joe Manchin or West Virginia and Joe Donnelly of Indiana.) How turned off will parts of the Democratic base in Pennsylvania be by Casey's little reminder that he's as anti-Choice as any hateful Republican patriarchal goon who wants to interfere with women's ability to make their own health choices? How can Democrats denounce the GOP for voting that way when Casey and 2 other Democrats also did? Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowsky voted with the Democrats against the bill. Last time Casey faced the voters (2012) he beat Republican Tom Smith 3,021,364 (53.7%) to 2,509,132 (44.6%) and took all 3 counties the Kremlin tampered with for Trump, Erie, Luzerne and Northampton.

If the measure passes and is signed-- Ryan already got it passed by the House-- anyone performing an abortion on a woman who is more than 20 weeks pregnant would face a fine, up to five years’ jail time, or both. According to Planned Parenthood something like 99% of abortions occur before 21 weeks of pregnancy and those later on often involve severe fetal abnormalities or serious health risks to the woman.

New Jersey has a completely different nightmare brewing for the Democrats. It is not a swing state; it's a pretty safely blue state with a PVI of D+7. Hillary beat Trumpanzee there, winning their 16 electoral votes 2,148,278 (55.45%) to 1,601,933 (41.45%). So in 2012 Menendez, always a shady character but before the most recent scandals that rocked the politics of New Jersey, beat Republican Joe Kyrillos 1,987,680 (58.9%) to 1,329,534 (39.4%). Should be a safe seat, right? And it would be-- except for Menendez, who is adamantly refusing to resign.

Newark Star-Ledger columnist Tom Moran asked his readers to "try to envision Sen. Robert Menendez trying to manage his daily calendar when he's juggling his second trial on corruption charges with his campaign for re-election. Will he march in parades? Or will he attend the trial every day to save his neck?" He points out how dangerous-- actually he said "ridiculous"-- it is "in the Trump era, when a single Senate seat can tip the balance of power."

New Jersey voters haven't sent a Republican senator to Washington for half a century, and with Trump soiling the brand so badly, Democrats could win by picking a name out of the phone book.

Their only chance to lose this seat is to do exactly what they are doing-- rallying around Menendez with a unanimity that virtually ensures he will win the primary race on June 5, provided he's not sent to prison first.

Could Menendez win in November if he escapes conviction? Probably. The Cook Political Report rates him as the favorite today, even with the baggage. But that could change.

...Republicans have not chosen a candidate yet, but they are giddy about the prospects of Bob Hugin, a self-made millionaire and former Marine who told county chairmen recently that he would start the bidding by spending $20 million of his own money, and hopes to raise $40 million more, according to reliable sources in the GOP.

Imagine the flood of 30-second TV spots that money will buy. Menendez on a private jet to a luxury resort in the Caribbean, no charge. Menendez at a luxury hotel in Paris with a young woman, also gratis. Menendez hiding these gifts, despite the rules. Menendez doing favors for the man who paid for it all, his best pal, Salomon Melgen, a rich old man with a fondness for stray models, and now a convicted felon.

"Right now, a sitting Senator is vulnerable, and that creates an opportunity for us," says the state GOP chairman, Doug Steinhardt.

Think about the stakes. The repeal of Obamacare failed by one vote in the Senate, and the horrific tax bill passed by just three. Are Democratic leaders really that reckless?

Maybe not. Because there is a Plan B floating out there.

It goes like this: If Menendez is convicted, or so damaged that he's likely to lose, they will replace him, just as they replaced Sen. Bob Torricelli when he was under federal investigation during his 2002 re-election campaign.

Who would replace Menendez? Here's the leading theory among a long list of Democrats I asked over several weeks:

Rep. Donald Norcross (D-1st) would replace Menendez, answering a top priority of his brother George Norcross, who controls the biggest Democratic faction [faction?? The Star-Ledger isn't allowed to say "Machine," let alone "corrupt Machine?"] in the state Legislature.

Senate President Steve Sweeney (D-Gloucester) would leave the Statehouse to fill that vacant seat in Congress.

That would open Sweeney's top spot in the state Senate, which would go to someone loyal to Murphy, probably from northern New Jersey, for regional balance.

Can't get any worse? How about this stinky little scenario?

New Jersey politics are a mess. Chris Christie left the governor’s office stinking of corruption. Sen. Bob Menendez will seek re-election in November, less than a year after a hung jury declined to acquit him of bribery charges; a repeat trial is in the offing.

Menendez is among the least popular senators in the country, with an approval rating of 29 percent. He’s likely to be re-elected anyway, because New Jersey’s Republican Party is in shambles. Christie left office as the least popular governor in the country, with an approval rating of 19 percent. He won re-election in 2013 with 60 percent of the vote. His lieutenant governor and two-time running mate, Kim Guadagno, lost her race to replace him with just 42 percent of the vote.

...The Libertarian Party ought to take a stab at Menendez’s seat. And their candidate ought to be Alan Dershowitz... he isn’t a run-of-the-mill Democrat. He’s a member of a rare breed of originalist Democrats who oppose judicial activism and defend the inalienability of even the least trendy constitutional rights. He voted for Hillary Clinton in ’16 and prefers Joe Biden in 2020, but has on several occasions come to Trump’s philosophical aid. He defended the legality of Trump’s decision to fire FBI Director Jim Comey. He defended the legality of Trump’s travel ban. He’s defended Trump’s allegations of bias in the FBI’s Russia investigation, and he’s attacked the left for trying to delegitimize Trump’s presidency through innuendo and tele-psychiatry.

Dershowitz told Politico that he’s lost seven pounds since finding himself forced to defend Trump. He says his liberal friends don’t invite him to dinner anymore. No doubt John Adams had a similar experience when he agreed to defend the British soldiers who killed five Americans at the Boston Massacre. (That sounds hyperbolic-- and it is-- but really, does the half of the country that hates Trump hate him less than Colonial Boston hated those soldiers?)

All that said, the tsunami keeps on building. Another powerful close Ryan ally House Appropriations Committee chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) made it clear yesterday that he's another rat deserting the sinking ship. He's the 9th House committee chairman to be resigning rather than face defeat in November. I've never seen anything like that before. And it's likely Ryan himself will soon announce he wants to spend more time with his own family. The Democratic establishment, by the way, have a conservative piece of crap they're running, someone sure to disappoint the base and lose the seat in the nest midterm, New Dem/EMILY's List garbage candidate Mikie Sherrill, a Wall Street criminal the DCCC is trying to pass off as a great and valiant military heroine. The only nice thing I've ever heard about her from New Jersey activists is that she probably won't turn out as bad as Josh Gottheimer... probably.