Sunday, December 10, 2017

Question: Is Randy Bryce Winning Yet? Answer: Yep


Enjoy Randy Bryce on I Love America with Sarah Silverman above. I don't know how many people in southeast Wisconsin watch that show. Or Chelsea Handler's show. Or Pod Save America with former Obama aides Jon Favreau, Dan Pfeiffer, Jon Lovett and Tommy Vietor. All those appearances seemed like a big deal for Randy Bryce after he released his well-received introductory video that caused such excitement among national progressives. I know all the other candidates backed by Blue America would like those opportunities... would love those opportunities. But I'm not sure how much name recognition all of that has given Bryce in WI-01. Everyone there knows Paul Ryan-- who was first elected in 1998 and is basically on TV, as Speaker of the House, every single day. His name recognition is 92% and Bryce's is 21%.

Goal ThermometerFortunately for Bryce, though, all that Paul Ryan name recognition that has served him so well for so long, is turning sour-- very, very sour. I got my hands on an internal campaign poll of WI-01 voters-- 30% Democrats, 31% Republicans and 39% independents), conducted by the Global Strategy Group. The bottom line is good: Bryce and Ryan are very close when the "if the election were held today" question is asked-- 46% Ryan/40% Bryce-- in the district and when a positive line is read about each one of them, Randy then goes on to beat Ryan-- 48% to 41%. [Please consider tapping on the ActBlue Stop Paul Ryan thermometer on the right and contributing what you can to help drive up Randy's name recognition.] These were the two statements read by the pollsters:

1- "Paul Ryan is a Republican and fifth-generation Wisconsin native who serves as Speaker of the House of Representatives. A committed conservative and public servant, Ryan has spent his life advocating for real solutions that will expand opportunity for all Americans."

2- "Randy Bryce is a US Army veteran, cancer survivor, and ironworker from Caledonia. He joined the race for Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District because he’s frustrated with DC politicians who continue to put politics and party over people and wants to put the priorities of hardworking Americans first."

The poll shows that Ryan's favorability has dropped from 50% to 46% since August. His unfavorability has grown from 41% in August to 47%. Bryce, still basically little known, saw his favorability grow from 7% to 15% and his unfavorabilty grow from 3% to 6%. Voters still don't know who he is, although his name recognition has grown from 10% in August to 21% today, without running an ads on TV or radio. That should be changing early next year... after over a million and a half dollars in small donations to his campaign.

A little context from the poll: Trump's net approval/disapproval has gone from 42%/52% in August to 42%/53% today. And Ryan's own approval has fallen from 52% to 47%. Meanwhile, his disapproval has grown from 42% to 46%.

Then poll respondents were asked if each of these terms was a good description of Paul Ryan. The number next to each represents what percentage of voters agreed it was a good description of their incumbent congressman:
Is part of the problem in Washington DC- 57%
Focused on helping millionaires, billionaires, and wealthy corporations- 62%
Too close to campaign donors and Washington special interests- 57%
Out of touch- 54%
Has changed for the worse during his time in office- 54%
Focused on helping the middle class and working people- 49%
Cares about people like you- 51%
Focused on constituents in Southeastern Wisconsin- 48%

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At 7:03 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't see how you can be optimistic with these numbers.
Ryan is well known and has been for 20 years. His love for the money and indifference to everyone else has been his theme. He led his party to try to rip health care from 30 million and pass trillions in tax relief for billionaires, yet he still enjoys nearly 50% approval.
You still forget that IT'S FUCKING WI-01. Those motherfuckers are not sane.

Your numbers suggest that Bryce, if funded via BA maybe, might be better off to run as an independent. Of course that might repudiate his previous support for the lying bank whore. But whatever.

But think of Bryce's message today absent the Pelosi/scummer/democrap anvil around his neck (surely WI-01 voters, not all that bright, would have forgotten that he worked on the lying bank whore's campaign by now). WI-01 voters on the far right have a visceral abhorrence for all things democrap you know.

Just wondering... if Bryce would have announced as an independent (or Green or DSA), would DWT and BA have even given him a sniff? In other words, are DWT and BA being relentlessly part of the problem?

At 11:19 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

There are still way too many people who like these bad dudes. How can so many people still like Ryan? Maybe some out of ignorance and lack of information but many due to loyalty to the Republican Party against their own interests, and may I say idiocy.

The ruination of democracy is apparently well below way too many people's radar.

At 1:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hone, how can it be called a democracy when nearly none of our elected reps actually represent their states/districts but, rather, represent the billionaires and corporations and other interests on K-street?
How can it be called a democracy when ONLY a third-ish of the electorate can determine the government who then interpret how to represent the money?
How can it be called a democracy when a different third always votes for a party who openly whores for the same money?
How can it be called a democracy when the last third never play because they are left out by rule?

And how can it be a democracy when the electorate has been content with this arrangement for several decades? I mean, it would be another thing if 150 million of us were out in the streets over it. But NOBODY is out there demanding that 'we the people' get represented in DC.


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