Paul Ryan Plays The Role Of Albatross Around The Neck Of John Culberson In Houston

A couple weeks ago, John Culberson had some crushing news when he read the results of PPP's survey of several hundred voters in his west Houston district (TX-07). His district's PVI had already slipped from a nice safe R+13 in 2015 to a much shakier R+7 this year. Romney had beaten Obama in TX-07 60-39%. Trump didn't fare as well. Hillary actually beat him 48.5% to 47.1%. The DCCC didn't bother running anyone against Culberson last year. He faced off against a vanity candidate from the oil industry, James Cargas, who only spent $62,159 to Culberson's $1,193,411 and Culberson beat him 143,369 (56.2%) to 111,774 (43.8%). This cycle there are seven candidates vying for the Democratic nomination to challenge Culberson, award-winning cancer doctor Jason Westin, another progressive named Laura Moser, Alex Triantaphyllis, the establishment guy; Cargas again, Joshua Butler, EMILY's List candidate Elizabeth Fletcher and Debra Kerner. Four of them have raised over a quarter million dollars each-- to Culberson's $645,743.

So about that PPP survey. Culberson couldn't have looked at this as anything put a big flashing red light signaling the danger he's in. These aren't national numbers. These are voters living West University Place, Highland Village, Bellaire, Piney Point, Spring Valley, Hunetsr Creek and Bunker Hill villages and out to the Barker Reservoir in the south and the Houston National Golf Club in the north.

The hypothetical matchup between Culberson and "a Democratic opponent" was what made the papers-- 49% for a generic Democrat and just 39% for Culberson-- and that was bad enough. But it got worse-- much worse-- when you dig down into the numbers. Culberson's approval is a puny 31% while his disapproval is 55%. What makes that even worse is that Trump has a higher approval (37%). Culberson can't even hold onto a significant part of the Trump base. He's dead to the district's independent voters. Only 12% of TX-07 voters approve of the job Congress is doing (83% don't) and Paul Ryan is like another anchor for Culberson, with a dismal 29% approval and a crushing 65% disapproval. What makes this even worse is that Culberson is known for being a total Paul Ryan rubber stamp.

Instead of dry polling, Jason Westin used some Bob Dylan lyrics to explain why Culberson's time in Congress is coming to a close. "John Culberson has been the elected representative for TX-07 for the past 17 years, but like Bob Dylan said to the 'congressmen': the times they are a-changing. TX-07 voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016-- a more than 20% swing from the vote in 2012. The vote for TrumpCare earlier this year, which John Culberson 'absolutely supported,' would have kicked more than 50,000 TX-07 voters off their insurance. When Hurricane Harvey hit Houston, no one blamed Culberson for the storm itself, but they did for the lack of planning before or after to protect us from the next storm. These issues, and Culberson's refusal to allow any federal funding to improve Houston's ailing public transportation system, explain why Culberson is so unpopular in the district. Simply put, the voters do not want to give John Culberson a 10th try to finally get it right, and his complete support for Washington DC over Houston will cause TX-07 to say 'the first one now will later be last, cause the times they are a-changing.'"