How About A New Country In The Middle East?

A Kurdish homeland has been a realistic but unfulfilled dream for between 20 and 30 million Kurds living primarily in eastern Turkey, northern Iraq, northeastern Syria and northwestern Iran since World War I. It almost happened then and almost happened after World War II and almost happened after the first Gulf War (1991). Turkey, more than any other country, has always stood in the way. A week from tomorrow, September 25, will see an independence referendum in Kurdish Iraq, home to a largely autonomous 5-6 million strong Kurdish majority (17% of Iraq's total population). And, predictably, Turkey, home to as many as 20 million restive Kurds, is flipping out. Turkey which has moved in a fastist direction in recent years called the referendum a "matter of national security" for Turkey. Over the weekend Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said "No one should have doubt that we will take all the necessary steps in this matter."

And Iraq is even more hysterical over the referendum. They are already threatening military intervention. The country's latest Prime Minister, Haider Al-Abadi, said if the Iraqi population was "threatened by the use of force outside the law, then we will intervene militarily," a prepared excuse for any action the Baghdad government decides it can get away with. The government in Baghdad says it won't recognize the results of the referendum and on Thursday the Iraqi parliament voted to fire Najmaddin Kareem, the Kurdish governor of Kirkuk province. He said the order was unlawful and that he will stay in office and the referendum will go ahead as planned."

Al-Abadi called the vote “a dangerous escalation” that will invite violations of Iraq’s sovereignty.

Iraq’s Kurdish region plans to hold the referendum on 25 September in three governorates that make up their autonomous region and in disputed areas controlled by Kurdish forces but claimed by Baghdad.

The United Nations has urged the Iraqi Kurdish leader, Masoud Barzani, to drop plans for the independence referendum and enter talks with Baghdad aimed at reaching a deal within three years.

Jan Kubis, the top UN envoy in Iraq, offered international backing for immediate negotiations between the country’s federal government and the autonomous Kurdish region.

In a document seen by Agence France-Presse, he proposed “structured, sustained, intensive and result-oriented partnership negotiations... on how to resolve all the problems and outstanding issues” between Baghdad and Erbil, the Kurdish region’s capital.

The Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) is embroiled in long-standing disputes with the federal government over oil exports, budget payments and control of ethnically divided areas.

Iraqi Kurdish lawmakers on Friday approved holding the referendum in the face of fierce opposition both from Baghdad and the Kurds’ international backers.

Kubis called for talks, overseen by the UN Security Council, that would aim to reach a deal defining “principles and arrangements” for future relations between Baghdad and the KRG.

In return, Barzani’s administration would agree to postpone the referendum at least until the end of negotiations.

The Kurds have been the most effective fighters against ISIS, far more so than the desultory Turks or the incompetent Iraqis. Israel is the only country in the region supporting the Kurdish move for independence. The U.S. and U.K. want the Kurds to postpone their push for independence until the war against ISIS is completed but the U.S. and U.K. have betrayed the Kurds every single time independence has come up, urging patience. The Kurds are aware that the minute the ISIS threat is over, the U.S. will give Iraq (and Turkey) a green light to crush-- or try to crush-- them.