Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Dueling Polls?


PPP's findings on a 2020 contest between Bernie and Trumpanzee were very clear. Bernie would beat him-- and beat him very, very big-- 52% to 39%. I tried to remember off the top of my head the last time there had been a 13 point spread between 2 presidential candidates. Obama beat Romney with a 4 point spread and bear McCain with a 7 pointer. In 2000, George W Bush-- like Trump-- lost the popular vote and in 2004 he won by 2 points. To get into a double digit win you have to go all the way back to Ronald Reagan's 1984 reelection when he beat Walter Mondale by about 18 points. But Bernie beating Trump by a big margin seems like a no brainer. Bernie is the most popular political figure in America and Trump is historically unpopular-- the most disliked president at the 6 month point if his term in 70 years.

But for some reason pollsters are now asking about Hillary Clinton again. They asked their respondents who they thought Russia wanted to win the 2016 election, Trumpanzee or Clinton. 24% said the Russians wanted Clinton to win. Reallyy-- 24%. They're allowed to vote and have children-- and home school those children-- and have Twitter and Facebook accounts. Then they wanted to know if people believed the meeting that Fredo admitted he had with a pack of Kremlin spies really took place. Look at this:

Should those people be voting in our elections? But even with those people with their determined ignorance as voters, when PPP asked a fantasy question about Trump vs Obama and Trump vs Hillary, this is what happened:

Hillary actually beat Trump last year 65,853,516 (48.2%) to 62,984,825 (46.1%)-- slightly over 2 points. In 2020 Hillary would beat he by a far greater margin-- 7 points according to this poll. But not according to a Bloomberg poll, also released yesterday. Bloomberg practically congratulated Trump, claiming even with his shockingly low approval numbers he "can at least find solace in this: Hillary Clinton is doing worse."
Trump’s 2016 Democratic rival is viewed favorably by just 39 percent of Americans in the latest Bloomberg National Poll, two points lower than the president. It’s the second-lowest score for Clinton since the poll started tracking her in September 2009.

The former secretary of state has always been a polarizing figure, but this survey shows she’s even lost popularity among those who voted for her in November.

More than a fifth of Clinton voters say they have an unfavorable view of her. By comparison, just 8 percent of likely Clinton voters felt that way in the final Bloomberg poll before the election, and just 6 percent of Trump’s voters now say they view him unfavorably.

“There’s growing discontent with Hillary Clinton even as she has largely stayed out of the spotlight,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. "It’s not a pox on the Democratic house because numbers for other Democrats are good."

...[T]heir comments often reflected the ongoing angst among Democrats about how best to position themselves against Trump and Republicans in 2018 and beyond. Many said they wished Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont had won the Democratic nomination, or that they never liked Clinton and only voted for her because she was the lesser of two bad choices.

“She did not feel authentic or genuine to me,” said Chris Leininger, 29, an insurance agent from Fountain Valley, California. “She was hard to like.”

Leininger, an independent voter who leans Democratic, said she found Sanders much more likable and with a better story to tell voters.

“But I don’t blame her for Trump,” she said. “There were a lot of factors that fed into Trump becoming a president and she was just one of them.”

As was the case throughout the campaign, Clinton suffers from gender and racial gaps. Just 35 percent of men hold a favorable view of her, compared to 43 percent of women. And just 32 percent of whites like her, while 51 percent of non-whites do.

Clinton’s lowest reading ever in the Bloomberg poll-- one percentage point lower than her current popularity-- was recorded in September 2015, as she battled with Sanders before the first primary ballots were cast and as the scandal surrounding her use of a private email server escalated.

“I felt like there was a smugness and that she was just a politician who was called a Democrat, but could have been a Republican,” said poll participant Robert Taylor, 46, a second-grade teacher from suburban Chicago who voted for Clinton, but would have preferred Sanders as the Democratic nominee.

Even before the election, Taylor said he felt negatively about Clinton, but he doesn’t blame her for Trump being president.

“I could vote for a competent leader or I could vote for a jackass,” he said of his choices. “I think my negativity about her would be there whether Trump was elected or not."

Ray Cowart, 75, the retired owner of a small software company from Elk Park, North Carolina, said he voted for Clinton even though he didn’t like her because “she was the better of two bad options.”

Asked who he would rather have a beer with if neither one of them was president, Cowart said he’d rather stay home. “I wouldn’t go, even if I was thirsty,” he said.
So maybe the two polls aren't at actually at odds. Maybe the Bloomberg poll doesn't contradict the PPP poll at all and that Hillary is incredibly disliked but more people now understand that she is indeed the lesser evil and would get over their prejudices and vote for her to save the country from Trump. You think?

Labels: ,


At 5:57 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Again, still, polling just shows that far too many americans are dumber than a bag of doorknobs. No wonder we're where we are. A society this gawdawful stupid really needs a benevolent despot. Clearly we're incapable of self-governance.

At 3:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Yes, polls continue to show that americans haven't the mental acuity to understand the role a foot plays in being kicked in the balls.

At 9:49 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ray Cowart is 75. I wonder if he's ever wondered WHY we can only ever have 2 "bad" choices. I wonder if he's aware of the color green.


Post a Comment

<< Home