Thursday, June 08, 2017

Not Anarchy, But A Political Earthquake Rocks The U.K.-- Hung Parliament


There are 650 seats in the Lower House of Parliament, meaning a party needs to win 326 to form a majority government. When Theresa May-- believing her own and the Establishment's anti-Corbyn hype-- called a snap election on April 18, her party controlled 330 seats to just 232 for Labour. The SNP held 56 seats (out of a total of 59 seats in Scotland) and the Liberal Dems held 9. There was no election required until May of 2020 but May convinced herself the Conservatives could pick up a couple of dozen seats. Her gamble didn't pay off. And her party is in jeopardy of losing power while she will almost certainly lose her role as party leader, soon if not immediately.

At this moment the Conservatives have lost two cabinet members and, so far a net of 13 seats. Labour is up 31 seats, Lib-Dems are up by 4 and the SNP has lost a net of 18 seats, both Labour and the Conservatives benefiting in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon, Scotland's First Minister claimed the SNP "won the election in Scotland," but her deputy lost his Parliamentary seat, as did former party leader Alex Salmond. She called the election "a disaster" for Theresa May, and said she hopes the SNP can work with Corbyn to form a progressive alliance. The total vote count right now is Conservatives 11,009,108 (41.59%), Labour 10,719,321 (40.50%) and Lib Dems 1,820,022 (6.88%).

UKIP, the fascist party that has forced the Conservatives to move too far right, were wiped out entirely. It looks like they will have no seats in Parliament at all. Their leader, Paul Nuttall came in a very distant third in Boston and Skegness, the country's #1 pro-Brexit constituency. They've taken 503,428 votes (1.90%).

The most current BBC forecast predicted 318 Tory seats, so not enough to re-form a government unless the Unionists for a coalition with them. The Unionists appear to be on track to win 10 seats. Labour in this forecast would have 267 seats (an increase of 35 seats), with 32 for SNP, 11 for the Lib Dems. Sinn Féin (which boyotts Parliament and won't join a Corbyn coalition) looks like it will win 7 seats and there are 6 scattered. If this holds solid, a Conservative-Unionist coalition looks like the most likely government, but a very weak one. We'll pick up this thread in the morning when the votes are all counted.

UPDATE: The Morning After

It is a hung Parliament. The Conservatives lost a net of 13 seats and no longer command a majority, although Theresa May says she will form a coalition government. Many Conservative leaders want her to step away from leadership, blaming her for a "dreadful campaign." Labour gained at least 30 seats, perhaps 31. Last month May had written in the Daily Mail that "The cold, hard fact is that if I lose just six seats, I will lose this election, and Jeremy Corbyn will be sitting down to negotiate with the presidents, prime ministers and chancellors of Europe." Now she says she will form a government with Northern Ireland's right-wing Unionists, who are anti-LGBT and anti-Choice (and pro-Brexit).

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At 10:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

"Dismay" was predicted back in the 1960s musically by Allan Sherman:

At 4:14 AM, Anonymous Hone said...

Sad that the British, the French and the Dutch show so much more awareness than the Americans regarding their politics and politicians.

Yet our representatives in Congress, the bulk Republican, may not really reflect the bulk of Americans. Everyone I know is VERY upset. How can anyone watch the testimony yesterday and defend Trump? Oh, the Republicans. So the Russians are intent on destroying us, a point Comey made very clear, and Trump never showed him the slightest concern about this, and in fact has done the opposite with his bromance with Putin et al? Trump is guilty as hell of treason. Any idiot should see this. How sick are the Republicans? They are showing themselves to be as sick as Trump.

Unfortunate for this country. Vote them out!!! Can we last until the midterms? I fear not. Will the DCCC continue to be our ruination when they could be fighting all of this horror so much better by choosing great candidates who stand up to the Republicans, their awful destructive platform and support of this awful traitorous President?

At 4:23 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...


At 7:08 AM, Blogger Paul Lukasiak said...

I suspect that a large part of May's defeat is related to her closeness to Trump, and Trump's attacks on the mayor of London. Trump brags about his "America First" perspective, and May's support of Trump translates into "Britain second" for most Brits. Add to that her weak response to Trumps attacks on the mayor of London, and May's position as Trump's bitch is difficult to ignore.

At 8:55 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

What no one really understands about the Republicans is that as corporatists they disdain national borders when it comes to their activities. It really doesn't matter to them which national identity is in use, as long as they retain the power to abuse and rob the public with impunity. The GOP will align with any despot as long as the gig pays well.

And about voting. Hone raises good points about the apparent futility of expecting to vote in change. The US is SO close to passing the American version of Germany's Enabling Acts that it isn't at all humorous. But even without passing such laws, we citizens can no longer count on traditional methods to bring about governmental changes. No one can trust the vote tallies anymore, especially not 0on the machines of corporations whose CEOs are on record as being in the thrall of the corporatist GOP and bending totals for the Party's benefit.


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