Saturday, April 01, 2017

Trump's In A Deep Hole-- But Can The Democrats Capitalize On The Opportunity?


The battle to take back America starts now-- in L.A. and Georgia-- Ossoff and Gomez

In a Washingtron Post OpEd yesterday, Michael Gershon wrote "This is a pretty bad combination: empty, easily distracted, vindictive, shallow, impatient, incompetent and morally small. This is not the profile of a governing party…It is now dawning on Republicans what they have done to themselves. They thought they could somehow get away with Trump. That he could be contained. That the adults could provide guidance. That the economy might come to the rescue. That the damage could be limited... Instead, they are seeing a downward spiral of incompetence and public contempt-- a collapse that is yet to reach a floor. A presidency is failing. A party unable to govern is becoming unfit to govern. And what, in the short term, can be done about it? Nothing. Nothing at all."

Ted Lieu begs to differ. There will be multiple opportunities to slow Trump down and derail his toxic agenda before 2020. The obvious place is the 2018 congressional midterms. But, the first of the congressional special elections is this Tuesday-- right here in L.A. Ted Lieu has become a national household name because of his fierce, unrelenting and sometimes entertaining resistance to Trump and Trumpism. Last month Ted, who repesents CA-33, had a message about the special election in CA-34: "During these extraordinarily dangerous times, we need fighters like Jimmy Gomez in Congress. I served with Jimmy in the California Legislature and I know he will always and relentlessly fight for progressive values. More importantly, I need Jimmy with me as soon as possible so that we can keep punching back against the failing Donald Trump.". And exactly 2 weeks after that: GA-06, where it looks possible for Democrat Jon Ossoff to win a suburban Georgia district that the DCCC had never previously even dreamed about contesting. (Blue America has endorsed both Gomez and Ossoff and you can contribute directly to their campaigns here. Both are expected to go to June run-offs.)

As Dan Walters noted in the Sacramento Bee this week, "a blue state backlash against President Donald Trump’s so-far-erratic performance and a Republican-controlled Congress, keyed to hot-button issues such as immigration and health care, will shrink the California GOP’s already thin congressional ranks-- just 14 of 53 seats. Ted Lieu was elected by the congressmembers from California, Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Hawaii to serve as the very first West Coast regional vice-chairman of the DCCC. You can expect a more long range and strategic approach, the end of DCCC antipathy towards progressives and-- among other developments like this: the first DCCC-backed challenge ever to Devin Nunes.

SHOCKER: Early voting so far in R+14 GA-06

There are 24 candidates running in Tuesday's CA-34 primary so it's virtually impossible for overwhelming frontrunner Jimmy Gomez to win outright, even if no other candidates manage to get much beyond single digit support. But in GA-06, Ossoff thinks he could take the 50% +1 vote that he needs to avoid a June runoff. "The campaign’s goal is not to get into a runoff, though we’ll be ready to fight a runoff if necessary. The campaign’s goal is to win this election outright on April 18." Early voting indicates he may be right. Only 31% of early voters participated in the last GOP primary. 55%, though, voted in the last Democratic primary. What that means is that, so far, at least, Republicans are expressing their desire to see Trumpism stopped by staying away from the election. Not as good as a vote for Ossoff-- but it will accomplish the same thing.

And right as the GOP is meting down-- or, as Sahil Kapur put it for Businessweek yesterday: total control is crippling the GOP-- the anti-government/non-governing party shouldn't be in government.
Ryan has an almost impossible job of uniting the party. The forces that stymied Boehner remain in place. “This isn’t a matter of Ryan not being capable...This is a matter of arithmetic.”
 Ryan’s push to pass a tax-reform bill won’t be any easier. The Freedom Caucus is already angling against a key component: revenue neutrality, where any tax cut is offset by equal revenue increases. Without offsets for tax cuts, an overhaul can’t be permanent without Senate Democratic support; it’ll have to be limited to 10 years. The main offset Ryan has proposed, a border adjustment provision to raise taxes for net importers and cut them for exporters, has divided the Right.

While Ryan can afford to lose some 20 Republicans in the House and still pass bills without Democratic support, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell has 52 GOP votes, and most bills require 60 votes. Funding bills and debt limit increases, both of which require 60, are likely to get caught in the crossfire.

With the government set to run out of funding on April 28, conservatives in the House, spoiling for a win, want to use both issues to push for steep cuts to programs for the middle class and poor, which won’t sit well with the Tuesday Group. The Freedom Caucus also wants to defund Planned Parenthood, which Democrats won’t support.

Altogether, it’s enough to make Republicans wonder if they’re even capable of governing anymore. Hoagland, the former GOP aide, sees only one way out for Ryan: work with Democrats. “It may be difficult for the speaker,” he says, “but it also is the way legislation used to be done around here.”
Goal Thermometer This week Ryan, a spoiled, childish ideologue, actually chastised Trump for saying he could envision working in a bipartisan way on health care-- with Democrats for the good of the American people. Ryan wasn't having any of it! As for the Senate, 2018 is one steep hill to climb for Team Blue-- and the key is holding the red state Democrats and adding two swingy states-- Nevada and Arizona-- and one really daunting task: taking out plutocrat-backed Ted Cruz. The job got a smidge easier Friday when popular El Paso Congressman Beto O'Rourke jumped into the race. Here-- at the ActBlue U.S. Senate thermometer on the right-- is where you can contribute directly to Beto without the money going through Schumer's and the DSCC's sticky fingers. Imagine replacing Ted Cruz with Beto O'Rourke. In fact, do more than imagine it! (I think you'll like the other names on the page as well.)

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At 5:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I disagree with the orange-utang being in a deep hole. There's plenty his Nazis have already done, can do more and will do even with the FC murderers.

Can the democraps capitalize? Depends. If you mean send out beaucoup fund soliciting e-mails every time some dumbfucktard does/says/threatens something that is unconstitutional or will kill people... then yes.
If you mean will they retake the house... very long odds. And even if they DO retake the house, they'll fuck it up and lose it again in 2 years.

The senate is likely to be heavier R after '18. But we'll see.

Never misunderestimate the stupidity and evil of this electorate nor the corruption and ineptitude of the democrap leadershit.

At 5:40 PM, Blogger Thomas Ten Bears said...

The question that begs answer is "will the democrats capitalize on the opportunity."

At 7:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Good one, TTB.

The other thing is what they do with it if they should capitalize. In 2008 they totally betrayed their mandate and lost in 2010.

If they eke out a slim majority in 2018, will the democraps betray millions of voters again... still? Or will they betray their donors and get to work doing what they SHOULDA done in 2008?

I think we all know the answer.


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