More Trouble For TrumpCare Supporters-- In Swingy Arizona, Nevada, Alaska And Maine

Yesterday we looked at how the debate over TrumpCare is impacting the 2018 congressional races in Arizona. Hours later polling came out for Arizona-- as well as for Alaska Maine and Nevada-- showing the danger TrumpCare supporters face in Congress. We'll come back to that poll in a moment. PPP also released a poll yesterday-- a national one-- showing support for TrumpCare at a startlingly low 24%. Even before the disastrous CBO numbers have been factored in, 49% of Americans already oppose Ryan's proposal-- and even among Republican voters only 37% are in favor of the proposal.

The Affordable Care Act continues to post some of the best numbers it's ever seen, with 47% of voters in favor of it to 39% who are opposed. When voters are asked whether they'd have rather have the Affordable Care Act or the American Health Care Act in place, the Affordable Care Act wins by 20 points at 49/29. Just 32% of voters think the best path forward with the Affordable Care Act is to repeal it and start over, while 63% think it would be better to keep what works in it and fix what doesn't.

“There’s virtually no support for the Republican health care plan,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Voters have been getting warmer and warmer toward the Affordable Care Act and would much rather keep it than switch to the new proposal on the table.”

...Congress as a body continues to be very unpopular (18/64 approval) with Paul Ryan (34/48 approval) and Mitch McConnell (20/50 approval) unpopular individually as well. Democrats lead the generic House ballot 46-41.

Trump probably isn't enjoying this. And he blames Ryan for leading him down this foolish ideological path. There's no chance Trump ever read The Fountainhead or Atlas Shrugged, the 2 children's books that set Ryan on the path to come up with TrumpCare. In yesterday's Washington Examiner Byron York hit the nail on the head: "New to Washington and with no experience in public office, Trump has become a prisoner to the House Republican leadership-- or more precisely, to the complicated procedural requirements of the House and Senate, and the judgment of the GOP leadership that must operate within those boundaries...Republicans are working on the wrong thing. And the Republican president is allowing himself to be distracted from delivering early and often on his core campaign promise of improving the economy and bringing jobs to millions of Americans... Washington is rife with intrigue over the Obamacare fight. It has brought back talk of the old tensions between Trump and the GOP establishment, especially Speaker Ryan. Every player in Republican politics or conservative media has some advice for the leadership. Trump loyalists worry that it is harming his brand. And House Republicans push ahead. 'Failure is not an option,' GOP whip Rep. Steve Scalise told Sean Hannity Tuesday."

Just one more thing before we look at those new polls for Arizona, Alaska, Maine and Nevada-- a poll of WI-01 voters. That's Ryan's district, where the DCCC has made a point of undermining any Democrat who dares to go up against Ryan in such horrific ways that no plausible candidates are willing to take on Ryan-- just what the DCCC wants, for whatever arcane reason. Ryan's favorability in his district is 49-44% (Trump's favorability there is 50-47%) But when you dig down into the specific issues, the voters and Ryan are not on the same page. Making that connection would be the job of election opponents-- the ones the DCCC have guaranteed won't exist. But on issues from holding town halls-- Ryan refuses by 83% of his constituents want him to-- to an independent investigation into Russia’s involvement in the 2016 Presidential election, defunding Planned Parenthood, GOP gutting of EPA rules and protecting Social Security and Medicare, Ryan's voters and Ryan are on different planets entirely. Here are two question for Ryan to think about:

OK, now let's start with Arizona. "The survey finds Arizonans would prefer to fix and improve the Affordable Care Act instead of repealing it and starting over and they would be less likely to vote for someone who voted for repeal. In addition, the survey found high unfavorable ratings for the GOP repeal bill proposed by President Trump and Republican Leadership in Congress, and people are significantly less likely to vote for someone who supports it. This survey was conducted before the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office analysis of the proposal. The polling makes clear that the GOP leadership’s health care agenda has been rejected by Arizona voters, and those who support it will pay a political price. We know the bill will lead to fewer covered, less protection and higher costs for Arizona families."

●  52% of people said they would be less likely-- 43% much less likely-- to vote for someone who voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Even 54% of Independents and 50% of white voters would be less likely.

●  Only 37% (and only 35% among Independents) support the GOP position of repealing the ACA and starting "over with a new health law." An overwhelming 60% prefer fixing and improving the law instead.

●  55% of voters have an unfavorable opinion-- 41% very unfavorable-- of the bill from President Trump and Republicans in Congress known as the American Health Care Act (AHCA). 63% of Independents are unfavorable towards it.

●  After hearing some key information about what AHCA would do, 57% of people would be less likely-- 47% much less likely-- to support Senator Flake or their Member of Congress if they supported this bill. 58% of Independents are less likely to vote for someone who [votes for] this bill.

●  A staggering 66% of people strongly oppose-- and 83% oppose overall-- the provision that lets insurance companies charge older Americans 5 times more than younger people for insurance. Opposition grows to 71% strongly opposing-- 89% overall-- among people over 65.

●  An overwhelming 68% strongly oppose-- and 81% oppose overall-- the anticipated increases in premiums that are estimated to come from this bill.

●  55% strongly oppose-- and 68% oppose overall-- the Medicaid cuts that will slash mental health and substance use disorder services including those for tackling the opioid crisis.

●  35% strongly oppose-- and 47% oppose overall-- effectively ending the Medicaid expansion.

●  42% strongly oppose-- and 66% oppose overall-- the reduction in tax credits that leads to millions losing their coverage.


The political makeup of Arizona is such that these kinds of numbers are more likely to keep Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema from crossing the aisle and voting with the GOP, her normal default position. It is also likely to persuade Tucson Republican Martha McSally to vote NO. As for the rest of the GOP crew, the districts are too red and gerrymandered to scare any of them and most of them are so out on a limb ideologically, that it would be hard to imagine anti-health care fanatics like Franks or Schweikert or Gosar ever changing their minds-- or the bulk of their constituents voting them out.

And as bad as TrumpCare is polling in Arizona, it's even worse in the other states-- 36% support in Alaska, 34% in Maine and just 31% in Nevada. When asked if they would be less likely to vote for someone who voted for repeal 57% in Arizona said they would, but the numbers were higher in Maine (59%) and Nevada (65%-- which should be enough to give Dean Heller pause). The number is 53% in Alaska. This is the question asked to Nevada voters Heller has to look at when he decides what to do about TrumpCare:

And then there are these two if he still didn't get the point: