What Is Making Trump So Unpopular So Fast-- His Demeanor? Or Is It The Dire Threat Of Republican Health Care?

Polls that came out this morning from CNN and the Washington Post both show that buyers' remorse over Trump is already rampant. CNN's showed that when Trump is inaugurated Friday-- it won't just be ticket scalpers who are suffering. His approval is 40%-- the lowest of any recent president and 44 points below Obama's." Trump, wounded, flipped out this morning and claimed the polls are rigged against him. CNN reports that "approval ratings for Trump's handling of the transition are more than 20 points below those for any of his three most recent predecessors. Obama took the oath in 2009 with an 84% approval rating, 67% approved of Clinton's transition as of late December 1992 and 61% approved of George W. Bush's transition just before he took office in January 2001. Trump's wobbly handling of the presidential transition has left most Americans with growing doubts that the President-elect will be able to handle the job. About 53% say Trump's statements and actions since Election Day have made them less confident in his ability to handle the presidency." 53% of Americans have an unfavorable view of Trump according to CNN and the Post shows the unfavorable number at 54%.

The Republican threat to the healthcare system is just one factor, though probably a very big one. The report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) today detailed how repealing portions of the Affordable Care Act would affect health insurance coverage and premiums.

The number of people who are uninsured would increase by 18 million in the first new plan year following enactment of the bill. Later, after the elimination of the ACA’s expansion of Medicaid eligibility and of subsidies for insurance purchased through the ACA marketplaces, that number would increase to 27 million, and then to 32 million in 2026.

Premiums in the nongroup market (for individual policies purchased through the marketplaces or directly from insurers) would increase by 20 percent to 25 percent—relative to projections under current law—in the first new plan year following enactment. The increase would reach about 50 percent in the year following the elimination of the Medicaid expansion and the marketplace subsidies, and premiums would about double by 2026.

32 million people losing health insurance? This is what we've meant when we talked about Ryan and the Republicans overreaching to the point of allowing even an inept and incompetent DCCC to sweep to victory in 2018. Yesterday, in a little-noticed piece at Politico, Trump, Price and Hill GOP at odds on Obamacare, by Burgess Everett, one gets the idea that Trump is starting to realize he should never have let Pence (and Ryan) talk him into picking anti-healthcare fanatic Tom Price as Secretary of Health and Human Services and as the point man for revamping the healthcare system. It's going to be a catastrophe on every level. "[T]he two men," wrote Everett, "have articulated wildly divergent visions for what comes next-- and that's making it hard for Hill Republicans to figure out where to start on a coherent replacement plan once Obamacare is gone. Over the weekend, Trump said he wants to substantially expand coverage once Price is confirmed as Health and Human Services secretary-- 'insurance for everybody' as he put it to the Washington Post. But as a House member and former chairman of the House Budget Committee, the Georgia Republican wrote one of the most conservative visions for health care, although his plan never included universal coverage as a stated goal."

GOP lawmakers, including Price, stress they are less concerned about matching Obamacare's coverage gains, which drove the nation's uninsured rate to a historic low of 9 percent. They would rather people have access to affordable insurance only if they want it, hoping to avoid Obamacare's individual mandate.

But Trump indicated that he wants his plan to match Obamacare, if not exceed it, when it comes to expanding health care coverage. One of the chief GOP criticisms of Obamacare is that while it expanded insurance coverage, high deductibles and narrow networks reduced actual access to doctors and hospitals.

...Though Republicans said very broad discussions with Price about Obamacare are already underway, those discussions come amid a tug-of-war between the House, Senate and incoming administration over where to start. That discussion was further jolted by Trump's comments that suggested he wanted to eliminate a health system where "if you can't pay for [insurance], you don't get it."

A number of GOP senators want Price to explore executive orders that can be made to change Obamacare and winnow down essential health benefits required in insurance plans before they forge ahead on an a broader alternative. And when they do, it's the preference of many senators to seek a middle ground between Price's right-leaning plan and Trump's goal of expanding access to health care.

With a supermajority required in the Senate to pass a new healthcare law, Republicans in the upper chamber say they are in the driver’s seat to begin writing a replacement. Most of the Republican health care plans-- including Price’s-- have similarities such as incentives to buy insurance and the ability to sell insurance across state lines. But there’s also recognition that the GOP is going to have to come a lot closer to the middle to get any Democrats on board.

Right now, Price is bogged down with ethics problems for having brought stock in a company just before introducing legislation that drove the price of shares up. Tomorrow he's likely to prefer talking about the ethicals problems than the actual nuts and bolts of the healthcare proposal he wrote when he appears before the Senate Health Committee. (Actually he may not be testifying at all tomorrow. This afternoon Senators Warren, Franken and Baldwin asked Committee Chair Lamar Alexander to postpone the hearing until after Price's questionable stock trading is resolved. Maybe Trump is breathing a sigh of relief.) Price's plan focuses on giving tax credits to people who buy health insurance, a way of helping the middle class, while drastically reducing assistance to low-income Americans, who will see their subsidies reduced or eliminated. He is eager to eliminate the Medicaid expansion that has helped millions of families get health coverage, something that is even freaking out Republican governors who see Medicaid expansion working in their states. Under Obamacare insurance companies are prohibitted from charging older customers more than 3 times what they charge younger people. Price's plan eliminates that, which will result in far higher premiums for the elderly. How many more House seats will that mean for Democrats?

Have you noticed that Trump has never allowed himself to be photographed with Tom Price?