Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Can The Democrats Win Key Governorships In 2018 And Halt GOP Gerrymandering?


As we've mentioned, a week after the election, the Democrats had better get serious about preventing Republican dominance of Congress through gerrymandering. That means investing in state legislative races in states where Democrats have a chance at breaking up GOP trifectas-- there are 24 of them-- where they can gerrymander to their hearts content. The Democrats broke the Republican trifecta in Nevada and now control both houses, although the check on what they can do is a Republican governor. Democrats also flipped New Mexico's and Alaska's state houses but lost control of the state Senates in Iowa and Minnesota as well as the Kentucky house.

To get a fair shake in congressional redistricting, Democrats need to win legislative seats in gerrymander-crazy states like Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. And there's another way to go as well-- winning governorships. Of the 38 gubernatorial races in 2017 and 2018, 27 are held by Republicans-- many people feel have been in power too long. Key states Democrats should target are Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin to end trifectas in those important states.

There are 2 open-seat gubernatorial races in 2017, one if Virginia where Terry McAuliffe is termed out and one in New Jersey, where Chris Christie is termed out. Smart money in New Jersey is betting the Republicans have completely worn out their welcome in Trenton and that Phil Murphy will be the next governor of New Jersey. Virginia should be more competitive, where ConservaDem Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam will probably face off against Ed Gillespie. If Gillespie or another Republican wins, Virginia will have a trifecta (unless Democrats take back one of the legislative chambers. presumably the state Senate where they would need 2 seats, rather than the House of Delegates where they'd need 15.

In 2018 there are gubernatorial elections in 36 states. Here's the lay of the land:
Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) is term limited (and possibly headed for prison)
Alaska has an Independent governor, Bill Walker, who will probably run again
Arizona's Gov. Doug Ducy (R) is running for reelection
Arkansas' Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is running for reelection
California's Gov. Jerry Brown (D) is termed out and there will be a contentious multi-candidate Democratic primary
Colorado's Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is termed out and this will be a big GOP target.
Connecticut's Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is very unpopular but wants to run again
Florida's Gov. Rick Scott (R) is termed out and this will be a huge battle
Georgia's Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is termed out
Hawaii's Gov. David Ige (HI) will run for for reelection
Idaho's Gov. Butch Otter (R) is termed out
Illinois' Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) is running for reelection
Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (IA) will probably not run for an 80th term
Kansas' Gov Sam Brownback (R) is termed out
Maine's Gov. Paul LePage (R) is termed out
Maryland's Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is popular and running for reelection
Massachusetts' Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is running for reelection
Michigan's Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is termed out
Minnesota's Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is retiring
Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection
Nevada's Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is termed out
New Hampshire's Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is running for reelection
New Mexico's Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is termed out
New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) will probably run again
Ohio's Gov. John Kasich (R) is termed out
Oklahoma's Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is termed out
Oregon's Gov. Kate Brown (D) will probably run again
Pennsylvania's Gov. Tom Wolf (D) will probably run again
Rhode Island's Gina Raimondo (D) will probably run again
South Carolina's Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster will soon be named Gov. and will run for re-election
South Dakota's Dennis Daugaard (R) is termed out
Tennessee's Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is termned out
Texas' Greg Abbott (R) is running for reelection
Vermont's Gov. Phil Scott (R) will run again
Wisconsin's Gov. Scott Walker (R) may run again
Wyoming's Gov. Matt Mead (R) is termed out.

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At 4:16 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Howie, keep on fighting the good fight. This blog sounds very promising. We could use some news that has positive overtones. The question is: will people wake up?

Given my own difficulty sleeping, do all of these Republicans and Trump supporters now sleep well? Surely New Jersey has gotten the message regarding their creep-o Christie.

At 4:27 AM, Blogger CNYOrange said...

Well, the koch brothers have been doing quite the damage in Wisconsin, not sure how walker can be expected to lose, given that he's been elected 3 different times and that moron johnson just beat Russ Feingold in what can only be termed a massive upset.

At 6:30 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Can Ds win a few? Probably not.
Redistricting? Only more R gerrymandering.

Voters don't demand actual representation, generally don't give a crap about gerrymandering and are terminally stupid. Elections will continue to prove this.

At 8:20 AM, Anonymous ap215 said...

It's gonna take a people's movement effort to get The Democrats back to the left & win those upcoming races & i believe the people will win out & The Establishment aka The Donors & The Broken Money system that made them weak kneed & cause them to lose race after race will soon be no more.

At 9:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Maybe if Pelosi offers her big corporate donors more tax breaks than the Republicans the Democrats have a chance. The answer does not lie with Democratic voters. Only the Super delegates can tell us what's best for us, Why they told us how a true populist Bernie couldn't win and a worn out centrist Hillary could.

At 8:07 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

For the dems (DNC, DxCCs, etc.) to move left again?

1) a billion a year must come from the left. 2 billion would be better
2) votes must actually be at stake for actions taken. Support TPP or idiotic war or torture or drone murders or tax cuts for the rich or immunity for white-collar crimes.. and lose. That must be so.


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