Can The Democrats Win Key Governorships In 2018 And Halt GOP Gerrymandering?

As we've mentioned, a week after the election, the Democrats had better get serious about preventing Republican dominance of Congress through gerrymandering. That means investing in state legislative races in states where Democrats have a chance at breaking up GOP trifectas-- there are 24 of them-- where they can gerrymander to their hearts content. The Democrats broke the Republican trifecta in Nevada and now control both houses, although the check on what they can do is a Republican governor. Democrats also flipped New Mexico's and Alaska's state houses but lost control of the state Senates in Iowa and Minnesota as well as the Kentucky house.

To get a fair shake in congressional redistricting, Democrats need to win legislative seats in gerrymander-crazy states like Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Florida. And there's another way to go as well-- winning governorships. Of the 38 gubernatorial races in 2017 and 2018, 27 are held by Republicans-- many people feel have been in power too long. Key states Democrats should target are Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin to end trifectas in those important states.

There are 2 open-seat gubernatorial races in 2017, one if Virginia where Terry McAuliffe is termed out and one in New Jersey, where Chris Christie is termed out. Smart money in New Jersey is betting the Republicans have completely worn out their welcome in Trenton and that Phil Murphy will be the next governor of New Jersey. Virginia should be more competitive, where ConservaDem Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam will probably face off against Ed Gillespie. If Gillespie or another Republican wins, Virginia will have a trifecta (unless Democrats take back one of the legislative chambers. presumably the state Senate where they would need 2 seats, rather than the House of Delegates where they'd need 15.

In 2018 there are gubernatorial elections in 36 states. Here's the lay of the land:

• Alabama Gov. Robert Bentley (R) is term limited (and possibly headed for prison)
• Alaska has an Independent governor, Bill Walker, who will probably run again
• Arizona's Gov. Doug Ducy (R) is running for reelection
• Arkansas' Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R) is running for reelection
• California's Gov. Jerry Brown (D) is termed out and there will be a contentious multi-candidate Democratic primary
• Colorado's Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) is termed out and this will be a big GOP target.
• Connecticut's Gov. Dan Malloy (D) is very unpopular but wants to run again
• Florida's Gov. Rick Scott (R) is termed out and this will be a huge battle
• Georgia's Gov. Nathan Deal (R) is termed out
• Hawaii's Gov. David Ige (HI) will run for for reelection
• Idaho's Gov. Butch Otter (R) is termed out
• Illinois' Gov. Bruce Rauner (R) is running for reelection
• Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad (IA) will probably not run for an 80th term
• Kansas' Gov Sam Brownback (R) is termed out
• Maine's Gov. Paul LePage (R) is termed out
• Maryland's Gov. Larry Hogan (R) is popular and running for reelection
• Massachusetts' Gov. Charlie Baker (R) is running for reelection
• Michigan's Gov. Rick Snyder (R) is termed out
• Minnesota's Gov. Mark Dayton (D) is retiring
• Nebraska Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) is running for reelection
• Nevada's Gov. Brian Sandoval (R) is termed out
• New Hampshire's Gov. Chris Sununu (R) is running for reelection
• New Mexico's Gov. Susana Martinez (R) is termed out
• New York's Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) will probably run again
• Ohio's Gov. John Kasich (R) is termed out
• Oklahoma's Gov. Mary Fallin (R) is termed out
• Oregon's Gov. Kate Brown (D) will probably run again
• Pennsylvania's Gov. Tom Wolf (D) will probably run again
• Rhode Island's Gina Raimondo (D) will probably run again
• South Carolina's Lt. Gov. Henry McMaster will soon be named Gov. and will run for re-election
• South Dakota's Dennis Daugaard (R) is termed out
• Tennessee's Gov. Bill Haslam (R) is termned out
• Texas' Greg Abbott (R) is running for reelection
• Vermont's Gov. Phil Scott (R) will run again
• Wisconsin's Gov. Scott Walker (R) may run again
• Wyoming's Gov. Matt Mead (R) is termed out.