Tuesday, August 02, 2016

Trump Is Unlikely To Recover From His Disgraceful Treatment Of The Khan Family-- And Now He's On The Warpath Against Paul Ryan And John McCain


Today started with a Republican congressman, Richard Hanna, announcing he's voting for Hillary Clinton. He said he found Trump to be "profoundly offensive and narcissistic but as much as anything, a world-class panderer, anything but a leader. Little more than a changing mirror of those he speaks to." And it's ending with far right extremist Tim Huelskamp losing his Kansas GOP primary and with SeƱor Trumpanzee refusing to endorse Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House, who's in a primary showdown with a Trumpist next Tuesday. Trump claims that Ryan asked for his endorsement-- which Ryan says is a lie-- and he's giving him "very serious consideration... I like Paul, but these are horrible times for our country. We need very strong leadership. We need very, very strong leadership. And I'm just not quite there yet. I'm not quite there yet." He went on to say that Ryan's opponent, Paul Nehlen "is a big fan of what I'm saying-- big fan. His opponent, who's running a very good campaign, obviously, I've heard-- his opponent sent me a very scholarly and well thought out letter yesterday and all I did was say thank you very much for your very nice letter."

Just for good measure, Trump kicked down at John McCain as well, announcing that he won't back his reelection bid. McCain, too frightened to offend crackpot Trump fans in Arizona-- there are a lot of them-- has endorsed Trump but that didn't stop the Trumpanzee from demonstrating what a wonderful level-headed president he would make. "I've never been there with John McCain because I've always felt that he should have done a much better job for the vets. He has not done a good job for the vets and I've always felt that he should have done a much better job for the vets. So I've always had a difficult time with John for that reason, because our vets are not being treated properly. They're not being treated fairly." And then he attacked embattled Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, who said she supports him, calling her weak.

Listening to right-wing pollster Frank Luntz on the BBC yesterday, I got the distinct impression that his focus groups are indicating something he very much does not want to hear, namely that Trump can't recover from the insane reaction he's had to the Khan family. Humayan Khan was awarded a Purple Heart for running towards a suicide bomb to save his men and that's the calibre of a man the Trumpanzee and his klavern are denigrating and calling a terrorist. Luntz's focus groups are telling him Trump is dead after that. I mentioned it to Roland, who said the only way he sees an out of this mess for Trump is if he persuades Barron Trump to take one for the team, enlist and go over to Syria and quickly get killed by ISIS. Otherwise, Trump could win up being the first Republican presidential candidate to lose Utah in 50 years! (New Utah poll: Hillary-36%, the Trumpanzee-35%.)

Although about a million more people watched the Democratic convention every night than watched the Republican covention, Trump took solace-- loudly and all over Twitter-- than more people tuned in to watch his speech than tuned in to watch Hillary's speech. And that's true, although what Trump found it hard to understand is that many of the people who tuned in to watch his speech did so to see if he was as horrible as everyone has been saying he is. And he was. And they've told pollsters he was. Gallup reported that viewers were far more positive about the Democratic convention than the Republican convention. But that's not even what the Trumpists should be most worried about.

Trump's convention was the first in American history where voters came away less inclined to vote for the candidate than more inclined. Look at this chart:

After watching the GOP convention-- and Trump's ugly Orwellian speech-- 35% of those who saw it said they viewed the Republican Party more favorably, while a whopping 52% said they now see the GOP less favorably. Same story with people taking about likelihood of voting for each candidate. 81% of Democrats and 8% of Republicans said they are more likely to vote for Clinton after the convention, while just 73% of Republicans and 2% of Democrats said they were more likely to vote for the Trumpanzee.

As for the speech he can't stop bragging about... 35% of viewers rated it good or excellent and 36% rated it poor or terrible, the worst results ever recorded. Hillary's speech was rated good or excellent by 44% of viewers and poor or terrible by just 20%. Gallup's analysis:
The Democratic Party's convention left a considerably more positive impression on the American public than the Republican Party's convention. That is likely to aid the Democratic Party in its quest to win a third consecutive presidential election. However, the Democratic convention's historically average ratings are beneficial only in contrast to the Republicans' historically negative ratings, meaning both parties could have done a better job of appealing to Americans this year.

In the short term, it appears the Democratic Party will leave the convention phase better off than before it began. Gallup tracking finds Clinton's post-convention favorable rating at 44%, up six percentage points from mid-July. That is much higher than Trump's 32% favorable rating in the days after the Democratic convention. Also, Obama's job approval rating is now up to 54%, tied for the highest it has been since early 2013.

In the weeks ahead, both Clinton's favorable rating and Obama's approval rating could fall back somewhat as the campaign moves further away from the Democratic convention. But as of now, these key election indicators suggest the Democrats are in a stronger electoral position than the Republicans, and Trump and the GOP have a little more than three months left to try to change that.
And this, of course, was before Trump disgraced himself with his dust up with the Khan family, for which polling should be arriving soon enough. The CNN/ORC poll released yesterday caught a little of the fallout from the Trump-Khan dust-up and shows the beginning his death spiral. He's disliked by 61% of Americans and if the election were held today, Clinton would beat him 52-43%. Once the Khan controversy takes root, Trump will sink into the high 30s, the natural place for someone with his views and personality. He's sees the writing on the wall and is already whining to his followers that he senses the debates are fixed against him and the election is being rigged against him.

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At 12:01 PM, Anonymous AntiSpin said...

"Humayan Khan was awarded a Purple Heart for running towards a suicide bomb to save his men . . .

You don't get a Purple Heart for "running toward a suicide bomb." The Purple Heart is awarded for any injury received during combat. His Purple Heart is for the injury, not for any action he might have taken.

If he had received an award for "running toward a suicide bomb" it would have been something like a Bronze Star or Silver Star or perhaps a Medal of Honor.


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