Monday, June 27, 2016

Maine Polling Result Offers A Picture Of Two Candidates Most Americans Do Not Think Fit For The Presidency


Cain: "Poliquin is trying to have it both ways, criticizing Trump in public while praising him in private, and refusing to answer questions on whether he will support Trump in November. Mainers deserve straight answers."

Americans are being asked to vote for the lesser of two evils. If we do, we will always and forever be asked to do the same. Trump may be the worst thing on earth but there is nothing that would get me to vote for Hillary Clinton-- not even the threat of Donald Trump. I don' want to see her in the White House... so I won't vote for her. I'm happy to vote for Jill Stein, with whom I agree on far more than I do with Clinton. Clinton's appointees to the Democratic Convention's platform committee confirm what I have feared all along-- she's a moderate Republican disguised as a conservative Democrat.

The Portland Press Herald poll released yesterday shows a grudging public holding their noses and voting for her. 57% of likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of her, terrible, but not as bad as Trump's 62% unfavorable rating. Clinton's other selling point-- other than the claim to be the lesser evil is that he'sa woman. And, among Maine voters 48% favor her over just 28% for Trump. The most highly educated voters (post-graduate) favor her 59-19% and the least educated voters are all in for Trump, 46-35%. The wealthiest Mainers-- those making $100,000 or more-- also favor Hillary 43-21%. Party registration levels in Maine:

Independent- 37%
Democratic- 32%
Republican- 27%
Green- 4%
“These are the two most unpopular candidates to have ever run for president, at least going back for as long as there has been polling,” said Andrew Smith, director of the UNH Survey Center. “You never see them both under water like this.”

Still, among the party faithful, 74 percent of Democrats said they will likely vote for Clinton and Trump sees an identical level of support among Republicans, according to the poll of 609 randomly selected adults conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

The poll has Clinton leading Trump in Maine, with 42 percent saying they are likely to vote for her Nov. 8, while 35 percent say they will vote for Trump. Another 19 percent say they will vote for somebody else and 4 percent are undecided.

Clinton’s lead is within the poll’s margin of error for likely voters, which is plus or minus 4.5 percent.

The numbers mimic what Americans in general are feeling about their presidential choices. A June 23 poll by Reuters/Ipsos of 1,339 registered voters nationwide showed 44 percent favored Clinton and 34 percent favored Trump.

Smith said it’s also telling that nearly 20 percent of respondents in the Press Herald poll said they would vote for someone else. While that doesn’t mean a third-party candidate such as Libertarian Gary Johnson will be able to pull off a victory, it does mean alternative party candidates are likely to siphon off more votes than ever before from the major party candidates.

That is a problem for both Democrats and Republicans, even though most of the media attention has focused on divisions among Republicans over Trump, Smith said.

“Voter antipathy towards Clinton on the Democratic side is as bad as it is towards Trump on the Republican side,” he said.

The appeal of Bernie Sanders to younger and more progressive Democrats has left many of them disappointed and dissatisfied, meaning some may simply choose not to vote at all while a small percentage may even side with Trump. Smith said Sanders and Trump share an anti-establishment message that especially resonates with young voters.

Earlier this week Trump made an appeal to Sanders voters, urging them to join his movement. Smith said he doubts Sanders’ fans will do so in droves, but some will certainly find greater solace in a vote for Trump than for Clinton.

“The Democrats have a fairly significant problem,” Smith said. Bringing Sanders voters back into the Democratic fold could be critical for Clinton, he said.
The same poll shows progressive Democrat Chellie Pingree eviscerating GOP challenger Mark Holbrook in her re-election bid. She leads 56-34% in the 1st district. No news there. The more interesting race is in the 2nd where the Democrats hope to take back the House seat won in 2014 by teabagger Bruce Poliquin. It's a rematch with a worthless, uninspiring EMILY's List type, Emily Cain. He's leading 41-40%.
Poliquin, 62, a former state treasurer under Gov. Paul LePage, was elected in 2014 after the seat became vacant when former U.S. Rep. Mike Michaud, a Democrat, stepped down to run against LePage.

Cain, 36, spent 10 years in the Maine House and Senate before running for the U.S. House seat two years ago.

For a sitting congressman, Poliquin had a low favorability rating of 33 percent, according to the poll, although it was still higher than Cain’s favorability of 30 percent.

But Poliquin also held an edge in unfavorability – 32 percent viewed him unfavorably, compared to only 20 percent who felt that way about Cain. The Democrat did have a much higher percentage of those who didn’t know-- 37 percent-- compared to only 23 percent who are unsure about Poliquin.

Both Poliquin and Cain poll well within their respective parties, the poll found, and Poliquin has a slight edge among independent voters-- 30 percent to 27 percent, although that group also is 25 percent undecided.

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