Saturday, June 18, 2016

How Hillary's VP Choice Can Make Her More Than A Post-Script To The Clinton-Bush-Obama Era


-by emorej a Hong Kong

Some wild ideas get more and more logical as you think about them. Although this election cycle has conditioned many (more) of us to expect the worst from Hillary, perhaps it is still possible for her to surprise us (in a good way) with her Vice-Presidential selection.

The tea leaves are depressing, notably the conventional wisdom that Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown are too populist and independent-minded to fit well on Hillary's ticket, and that the other (leaked) shortlisted candidates all have even worse flaws, as summarized in this recent Dylan Matthews article. Warren and Brown are unlikely choices, too, because they each would be replaced in the U.S. Senate by a Republican governor, and neither of them seems to want to be selected.

A sliver of good news, that one can infer from this news about “vetting” of shortlisted candidates, is that, with Hillary's inner team talking to people like Warren and Brown (about more than how to beat Bernie), her team’s bubble might have finally been penetrated by realization that:

the Dem establishment's 40 years of issue-straddling (not to mention bait-&-switch) Presidential election tactics are pretty well played out, and

it’s risky to base a general election campaign on the negative argument that "Trump is a racist know-nothing," especially after a primary spent devaluing this type of allegation, by levying it against Berners for Progressive resistance to Hillary's coronation.

In other recent news, Condi Rice said she has “no interest” in serving as Trump's Veep running mate. This is where the wild idea comes in:

Hillary selecting Condi Rice as her Veep would have something for everybody.

If each stakeholder considered the following consequences of a Hillary-Condi ticket, then selecting Condi could be Hillary’s most popular campaign move so far:

1. Little need be said about the identity-politics messaging of adding Black female Condi to a ticket with White female Hillary. At a tactical level, this would seem the most reliable way to bait Trump into making more gender-based taunts, thereby angering women voters and endangering down-ticket Republican candidates in swingy districts.

2. Adding to the ticket a second former Secretary of State would further strengthen Hillary’s advantage among voters who are attracted by candidates holding direct experience in the USA's militaristic foreign relations, and could reduce the risk of losing voters due to bad news about terrorism, war or (what remains of) other foreign policy.

3. Condi seems to be a moderate on most issues besides her overly militaristic foreign policy towards the Middle East, and eagerness to project toughness worldwide. Any voters that reject Hillary’s ticket, because of those two immoderate positions, probably rejected Hillary herself long ago. Hillary also might find it liberating to be, for a change, only the second-most militaristic former female Secretary of State in a campaign.

4. Support for the Hillary-Condi ticket could be secured from the Republican wing, more fully joining the Democratic wing, of big donors and donation-dependent office-holders. The Clintons’ friendship with the Bushes would be redoubled, although Hillary’s campaign might be smart enough to avoid further publicity about this ‘royal’ solidarity. Of more lasting significance, the bipartisan character of the Hillary-Condi ticket would amount to a political realignment. This would make Hillary more of a historical figure than she can become by merely continuing a 40 year-old strategy (which she and Bill have gradually taken to counter-productive extremes).

5. The Democratic establishment could move past its pretense of caring about economic inequality, and could double down on its favored identity politics (within lines acceptable to big donors), including the establishment’s beloved allegations that Bernie and his supporters resemble Trump supporters in being racists and woman-haters-- in between acting as impractical purists and Republican-electing Nader-wannabees.

6. Bernie and his supporters, by being effectively kicked out of Hillary’s general election camp, would find it much easier to go all-in on the Green Party ticket (especially if Bernie is permitted to choose a like-minded non-Green figure as his Veep running mate). This would set up the relatively clear test of voter policy preferences, which most Bernie supporters have longed for, and which many Hillary supporters claim to also welcome.

7. If no general election ticket wins a majority of electoral college votes, then I predict that Hillary-Condi would be the most likely (by far) ticket to win a plurality in the subsequent vote by the House of Representatives. If this prediction is correct, then adding Condi to the ticket would actually be the lowest-risk course of action for Hillary.

8. Some Democrats would be dismayed if events caused Condi to replace Hillary at the top of the ticket, or in office. Imagine how much cognitive dissonance would result, in the brains of W-haters, from Condi’s role as one of W’s Iraq invasion architects. But something tells me they’ll find a way to rationalize it.

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At 9:31 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

NOW you did it! If Hillary picks that lying war criminal Condi to be her running mate, I WILL VOTE FOR TRUMP.

At 10:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Hillary picks Condi, then the above Anonymous poster will have the alternative of voting for Bernie on a non-Dem ticket.

At 10:41 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

From HRC's standpoint: another woman on the ticket would detract from the exclusivity of HRC's claim of the historical import of her being the "first female presidential nominee." It would be, instead, the "first all-female presidential ticket." I rather doubt she is doing this to share any limelight, neither with Rice nor political realignment.

I guess those longing for WWIII, sooner rather than later, would be excited by the bookend effect of Rice's "overly militaristic foreign policy towards the Middle East, and eagerness to project toughness worldwide."

It is not clear why this particular choice by HRC, and no other, would finally, effectively kick out Sanders and his supporters out of Hillary’s general election camp. But if this VP choice, and it alone, are sufficient to drive him to run on the Green Party ticket, then "bring-on" Condi!!!

John Puma

At 11:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

With all due respect (cuts both ways), the post preceding these comments reads like the product of a dorm room bong session by people who know little to nothing in the first place about American politics, and in the process erecting ludicrous strawmen only to knock them down with illogical irrational fantasist thinking. We're used to a lot more serious and realistic thinking at this site, and especially analysis that doesn't insult or ignore our basic intelligence.

Yeah, exactly, Condi Rice, because what Democrats want the most out of their party is a lie-to-our-face scot-free major war criminal vice presidential candidate who has Republican domestic 'values' (no NOT a moderate), and who has expressed ZERO REMORSE for her actions under Bush, and who still thinks that what they did was a success.

And in a sense Bush's Iraq rape was a success, because the intention was to blow up the entire Middle East and Arabic world in order to more easily control and/or influence the moving parts economically and politically, especially as the area begins to re-form into its future stasis. Who do you think's going to sell all the new and more numerous governmental entities the preponderance of the latest modern weaponry?

At 12:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Question: "Who do you think's going to sell all the new and more numerous governmental entities the preponderance of the latest modern weaponry?"

Answer: The Clinton Foundation.

At 2:45 AM, Anonymous Dameocrat said...

It will be impossible to guilt trip greens over the Iraq war if she picks Condi. It proves the Democrats position on it, wasn't in fact different from Bush.

At 3:50 AM, Blogger PDiddie said...

Nobody has said that she doesn't want to be V-P more stridently than Kinda Sleazy Rice. You had a good post going for there for awhile, though...

At 5:12 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Congratulations! You've found the only political woman in America, in ALL the Americas, with more war blood on her hands than Hillary.

At 8:36 AM, Anonymous willf said...

Hillary Clinton and Condi Rice on the same ticket?

I must be at the wrong blog, is this

At 9:59 AM, Blogger Robert Miller said...

Not bong talk. This is when you thought you took acid but it was really strichnine.

However, it would be interesting that the war party has announced its bipartisan support for endless war. Also, it would be interesting to see the Hillary hopers try to explain that.

At 10:10 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Clinton Foundation selling weapons = tin foil sore loser weak mindset.

Robert: I do hope Hillary beats Trump. If you don't hope so - which would make you a 'Hillary hoper' too, then you must truly hate half the population of this country.

At 12:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I always have to laugh at how many comments you get when you write about Hillary. I also have to agree with anonymous at 11:12 pm. I think this post is beneath you and am surprised to read such a ridiculous and I believe, insincere argument about a ridiculous subject. Sorry for the criticism, but I too don't expect to read posts as stupid as this at DWT.

At 1:10 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Anon at 12:28

This post is not by Howie Klein, it is by someone else who uses the handle "emorej a Honk Kong". But now the I look at it through your eyes, I can see that I have missed the original author's "close sarcasm" tag, and for that I thank you.

At 5:29 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If sarcasm was intended, I guess I was too stupid myself to "get it."


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