Sunday, May 22, 2016

The Case For Electability-- Or Do You Just Not Care That Much If Trump Becomes President?


Endorsements from Trey Gowdy and Nikki Haley didn't save Marco Rubio in the GOP's crucial South Carolina primary. Trump won the multi-candidate contest comfortably and beat Rubio by ten points. He won all 50 delegates to the Republican Party convention. In fact, in Greenville and Spartanburg counties-- Gowdy's district-- Rubio came in a miserable third. Friday, on Meet The Press Daily, Gowdy, the failed Benghazi Committee extremist, petulantly endorsed Trump. "I was a Rubio guy and Marco lost, but I will enthusiastically support the Republican nominee." That's because Gowdy puts his crackpot party before his country. Gowdy didn't go as far as the unemployed/unemployable Rick Perry-- who once diagnosed Trump as "a cancer on conservatism"-- and is now openly sucking around to be Trump's running mate. Why would anyone want to be the Chief Mate on the Titanic?

Well, it isn't so clear that Trump is going down as some anti-Trumpists predict. In fact, polling shows him generally in a decent position to win in November if the Democrats are stupid enough to nominate a candidate disliked and distrusted by so much of the electorate. Trump is gaining on Hillary. The Washington Post/ABC News poll released this morning reports that "Never in the history of the Post-ABC poll have the two major party nominees been viewed as harshly as Clinton and Trump. Nearly 6 in 10 registered voters say they have negative impressions of both major candidates. Overall, Clinton’s net negative rating among registered voters is minus-16, while Trump’s is minus-17, though Trump’s numbers have improved since March." Overall, Trump is beating her 46-44%. This morning Bernie told George Stephanopoulos that "We need a campaign, an election, coming up which does not have two candidates who are really very, very strongly disliked. I don't want to see the American people voting for the lesser of two evil. I want the American people to be voting for a vision of economic justice, of social justice, of environmental justice, of racial justice." Hillary-campers claim that once the primary is over and the Bernie backers coalesce around the nominee, everything will be fine. I wonder what they're smoking? Bernie's movement isn't a beauty contest about who has a better personality. The issues he raised during the campaign preclude large segments of his coalition from voting for Hillary or Trump. I'm sure many will get hoodwinked into voting for Hillary as "the lesser of two evils," but I suspect many will stay home and many will vote for Jill Stein. I ran this unscientific little twitter poll Friday and Saturday:

Those same Hillary-campers who insist-- don't worry-- everything is going to be fine when Bernie gets out of the primary, don't seem to comprehend the degree of disdain his supporters have for everything Hillary stands for. Sorry, it's not Obama vs Clinton 2008 again. This one's about values.

Saturday, Bernie's campaign released a polling memo from Tulchin Research, one I'm sure Bernie hopes the super-delegates will consider seriously before they nominate a candidate who is so weak that she can be beaten by Trump.

Democrats seeking a presidential nominee to lead their party to victory in November should take notice of the overwhelming preponderance of data demonstrating that Bernie Sanders is the strongest Democratic candidate to defeat Donald Trump. For months, public polling has found Sanders running consistently better than Hillary Clinton against Trump both nationally and in key swing states across the country and that trend remains very much in tact today.

The most recent Real Clear Politics (RCP) polling averages over the past month find Sanders leading Trump by a 11.2 percentage point margin (50.6%-39.4%)-- more than three times the size of Clinton’s 3.3-point average lead (45.8%-42.5%). Here we present some of the most recent national polls which all find Sanders running stronger than Clinton against Trump.

That Sanders runs better than Clinton against Trump is largely due to Sanders’s superior standing with independents as well as his strong base of support among younger voters, who back him in greater numbers against Trump than they do Clinton.

Also driving Sanders’s stronger showing against Trump is that he is by far the most popular candidate for president remaining in the race. According to the most recent CBS News/New York Times poll, Sanders is viewed favorably by voters with 41% favorable to 33% unfavorable for an 8-point margin. This positive profile stands in stark contrast to both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, who are both deeply unpopular. Clinton’s favorables are 31% to 52% unfavorable (-21) while Trump is slightly more unpopular (26% favorable to 55% unfavorable, -29).

Additionally, Sanders runs markedly better than Clinton against Trump in many key battleground states. In fact, Sanders leads Trump by wider margins than Clinton in all of the public polling that has been conducted in swing states over the past few months.

Krugman's cute Sanders dead-enders phraseology couldn't have been more effective to guarantee there would be inadequate post-convention unity than if Trump invented the term himself. But as everyone knows now, poor ole Paul has deluded himself into believing that Obama has ended inequality and Wall Street excess with (ever so slightly) higher tax rates, (an inadequate, compromised) Dodd-Frank Act and the (fraction of a loaf) Affordable Care Act. He should get out more and, you know... meet real people. Like Krystal Ball who, although she once worked for MSNBC, apparently is listening and hearing and understands that hand-wringing over party unity misses the point; no one cares about your precious parties.
As Hillary Clinton joylessly stumbles her way to the Democratic nomination, calls have increased for Bernie Sanders to either drop out of the race altogether or, at least, to stop fighting so darn hard. We’re told that Bernie should drop out for the good of the party. Bernie should drop out so that Hillary can make her general election “pivot” (which presumably means she can be free of the burden of pretending to be a liberal). Bernie should drop out so that Hillary can focus on Trump. According to this logic, Bernie and his band of loyalists need to get pragmatic, face the music, have a reality check. Hogwash. Doesn’t anyone see what I see? Bernie Sanders is our best chance to beat Donald Trump and to prove to the young voters backing him that the Democratic party actually stands for something.

Hillary dead-enders-- from Biden, Reid, Feinstein and Debbie Wasserman Schultz down the food chain to the corporate media shills at MSNBC-- want you to believe it's all over. It isn't. It never will be. Because of us.
Goal Thermometer

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At 2:31 PM, Anonymous Cujo359 said...

Sorry if I'm repeating myself, but I think the Democratic Party elite would rather lose with Hillary than win with Bernie. If Sanders wins, they know that some of them will be in the way, and he will move them out of the way. That means they'd lose power, which no politician wants to do. OTOH, if Clinton loses, there will be all those people who are now talking about party unity, and how could you ever not vote for Clinton, because Trump, who will continue to send money their way. The elites don't want to lose their place at the trough. Whatever outcome keeps them there is what they want.

You can't reform an organization from inside, unless you also have outside pressure that convinces the people who run that organization that what they value will disappear if they don't change their ways. As much as anything, what I've read at DWT has shown me that's as true of the Democratic Party as it is of any organizations big enough to have a leadership class.

At 3:19 PM, Blogger Glenn Bateman said...

The Democratic Party does stand for something. Unfortunately, the former 'party of the people' stands for selling its soul to Wall Street and the 1/10th of 1%ers for campaign $$$$$ AND this is what we have grown to hate about the democratic party.

Even more unfortunately, the likely presidential nominee of the former 'party of the people' will be the ethically challenged Hillary who (along with her supporters) see not lack of ethics in raking in millions in giving speeches during a period when everyone under the damn sun knew she was running for president. I find it amazing that her defenders are convinced that Hillary will not feel the need to provide any return on investment for her Wall Street, corporate, and 1/10th of 1%er backers.

This old man will NOT vote for the lesser of two great evils. Wall Street Hillary vs The Donald tRump = voting for Jill Stein.

At 4:38 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I support Bernie, so don't take what I'm about to say wrong.

Of the ten polls listed in the first graph, only one (FOX 5/14-17) shows Drumpf beating Hillary. But the MOE of the FOX poll shows Hillary can still win if the actual totals swing against the MOE. The margin of error on several polls could reverse the tally under the same conditions, telling me that the outcome actually remains in doubt.

This same Fox poll also indicates that the MOE under the same total swing conditions could have Drumpf defeating Bernie, but in no other poll does the MOE allow for a reversal of the projections.

As I see it, this does indicate that Bernie is the stronger opponent for Hair Drumpf. What still isn't about to happen -especially now that open warfare has broken out between Bernie and the Handmaiden of the Wall St Satan, DWS- is that the DNC will actually pay any attention to these numbers. They will strengthen the bullying, lying, and dirty tricks to attempt to push Bernie out.

I don't want to see Hair Drumpf win, but a coalition of both parties to limit his damage is possible if not likely. I'm willing to take that risk.

At 5:02 PM, Blogger Daro said...

"...the Democratic Party elite would rather lose with Hillary than win with Bernie."

The Iron Law of Institutions

DWS, Reid, et. al. have created a system of peonage down the party line where opponents of the corporate mantra are ruthlessly purged, defunded and/or ignored. I've seen it happen in companies gone sour and the only way it's corrected is by replacing the heads of the organisation which is nearly impossible since they make all the decisions. There is no outside agency that can step in and correct the rot. The party has, in effect, been hijacked. The result is a remorseless spiral downwards in "customers" (members) until losses force change a la creative destruction. Bernie is like some irate, activist shareholder trying to wrest control from the malignant hierarchy at an annual meeting. But, as always, the agenda is pre-rigged to stifle dissent.

At 5:12 PM, Anonymous brilliantatbreakfast said...

Team Hillary is all set to blame her loss on Bernie Sanders and his dirty fucking hippie followers. But what do DWS, Schumer, and their ilk care? THEIR gravy train will continue rolling. The dirty little secret of the Democratic Party is that they really don't care if they win or not. The party has become little more than an incumbent protection racket.

I don't know what the answer is, except I think the Brand New Congress kids are onto least they're recognizing that real change has to come lower on the political food chain than the presidency. I'll tell you what the answer ISN'T though -- voting for a woman who does nothing to further progressivism in this country than crawl out from under her rock in Ralphnaderstan to run for president.

At 8:55 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm a 64-year-old, 35-year Texan supporting Bernie all the way to the convention and beyond, whatever he does. Have been a direct supporter including donations (though small ones) since he first ran for Senate.

I think the general election polling regarding a Bernie-Trump matchup isn't at all accurate at this point, and I think you all know the reason why it likely isn't accurate, and I think there's validity to the reason, more than not. I'll leave it at that except to say I believe there's too much Democratic/Socialist/Left/Whatever handwringing and sky-is-falling mentality on obscene display.

I'm worried too of course that Trump can win, but the demographics still strongly say otherwise and I'm sticking with that. And as awful as Hillary may be once in office, okay likely WILL be, the only thing we can do about that now is to organize to push her leftward. She's a lot of the way there already (and a lot not there too, of course).

At 8:59 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

BTW, if you live in a purple state and vote for Jill Stein, President Donald Trump will thank you from the bottom of his shoe.

Your feelings are valid, but you shouldn't vote your goddam feelings. Trump winning will not hasten the onset of the FDR Democratic Party.

At 9:14 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And to the staunch Bernie supporter above (I'm one too!) who thinks this: "a coalition of both parties to limit his [Trump's] damage is possible if not likely. I'm willing to take that risk."

You've got to be kidding. The GOP will instantly roll over for a president Trump. They'll love their macho daddy warbucks. There will never be more than 3-5 members of today's GOP congress delegation who will side with ANYTHING the Democrats want to accomplish or prevent. What kind of giant rationalization are you living inside of? Do you want Hillary to lose so Trump will win?

If Bernie somehow wins it all, I'll be absolutely thrilled, the happiest man in Texas. If Hillary wins it all, I'll be hugely relieved that at least some degree of a true-enough Democratic agenda can be attempted to be enacted. Yes, she's Wall Street and neocon. Obama was too, especially Wall Street but lesser so neocon. I do understand that Hillary has been too neocon.

But you know who's going to end up bombing the shit out of the world, likely even more than would Hillary? Yes, that Trump fellow who lies with every breath he takes, especially during his campaign so far. And wait till you hear his lies during the general election campaign.

I wonder if the greatest Hillary haters are actually the ones who moreso wouldn't mind seeing Trump win, just so they can say they helped bring Hillary down in the general. That's what I really wonder. If Trump wins, I'll conduct my pro-Bernie and pro-progressive activities and donations from Canada and look on the biggest Hillary bashers as I have Ralph Nader since 2000.

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At 11:19 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who knew Hillary bots even read this site!

At 12:44 AM, Blogger John said...

I should vote for a person who 1) admires Kissinger 2) shares the values of Jeb Bush and 3) can "get things done" with the GOP congressional majorities?

What I care about is making it clear that many American have had enough of being treated as complete political fools.

John Puma

At 6:23 AM, Blogger cybermome said...

what just happened to Sanders was another iteration of the Dean scream. I was gob smacked how many people I know believed that what just happened in Nevada wasn't deliberate.And when I brought this up on Charles Chamberlain's ( DFA Executive Director) FB page no one said anything.
ALSO deliberate was the pre blaming of us Sanders supporters that if we stay home or don't vote for Clinton it will be our fault if Trump is elected. Dems are digging in and circling the wagons and dumping on Sanders


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