Tuesday, March 01, 2016

The Republican Party Is Drumpf


Heading into Confederate Super-Tuesday today CNN showed Herr Trumpf with more support than the 2 junior senators and the confused Ohio governor combined (49-37%). One polling question asked how likely would voters be to back Trumpf in the general election. 48% of registered Republicans said they would either "probably not" (13%) or "definitely not" (35%) support Herr Trumpf. That's 48% of registered Republicans.

If you haven't laid down your bets on today's results yet, the odds-makers at www.SportsBettingDime.com are awarding Herr Trumpf wins in 9.5 states (of 11) and 390 delegates of 595 up for grabs. They predict that the closest races will be in Arkansas, Oklahoma and Texas and that the states where Trumpf will crush his opponents most thoroughly will be Massachusetts, Vermont and Tennessee. Other interesting ways to bet:
Odds on the next Republican candidate to drop out:

Ben Carson: 2/1
Ted Cruz: 3/1
John Kasich: 3/1
Marco Rubio: 13/2
Donald Trump: 25/1

Odds that the Republican candidate who wins the most delegates on Super Tuesday will win the party's nomination: 1/12

Odds on who Herr Trumpf will insult the most on Super Tuesday:

Hillary Clinton: 2/5
The Media: 8/1
Marco Rubio: 8/1
Ted Cruz: 12/1
Bill Clinton: 40/1
Bernie Sanders: 175/1

Odds on who Trump will name as his running mate:

Rick Scott: 10/1
Nikki Haley: 12/1
Marco Rubio: 12/1
Brian Sandoval: 12/1
Carly Fiorina: 17/1
Oprah Winfrey: 30/1
Ted Cruz: 40/1
John Kasich: 40/1
Joe Scarborough: 40/1
Rudy Giuliani: 75/1
Sarah Palin: 250/1
Ben Carson: 275/1
Jeb Bush: 450/1
any businessperson: 12/1
any entertainer: 350/1
any sporting figure: 1000/1

Odds on who Hillary Clinton will name as her running mate if she wins the Democratic nomination:

Julian Castro: 8/1
Brian Schweitzer: 12/1
Cory Booker: 15/1
Mark Warner: 15/1
Joaquin Castro: 20/1
Tim Kaine: 25/1
Martin O'Malley: 25/1
Deval Patrick: 25/1
Terry McAuliffe: 40/1
John Kasich: 65/1
Joe Biden: 200/1
Bernie Sanders: 200/1
Bill Clinton: 250/1
Back in the real world, Nebraska Republican Senator Ben Sasse unleashed on Herr Trumpf again Sunday night, the first GOP senator to state outright that if Herr is the Republican nominee he'll vote for a third party candidate. "I cannot," he explained on his Facebook page, "support Donald Trump... I sincerely hope we select one of the other GOP candidates, but if Donald Trump ends up as the GOP nominee, conservatives will need to find a third option." Four of the most salient points in his screed:
Trump’s relentless focus is on dividing Americans, and on tearing down rather than building back up this glorious nation... we have a constitutional system of checks and balances, with three separate but co-equal branches of government. And the task of public officials is to be public “servants.” The law is king, and the people are boss. But have you noticed how Mr. Trump uses the word “Reign” – like he thinks he’s running for King? It’s creepy, actually. Nebraskans are not looking for a king. We yearn instead for the recovery of a Constitutional Republic.

Do you believe the beating heart of Mr. Trump’s candidacy has been a defense of the Constitution? Do you believe it’s been an impassioned defense of the First Amendment-- or an attack on it?

If Donald Trump becomes the Republican nominee, my expectation is that I will look for some third candidate-- a conservative option, a Constitutionalist.

A presidential candidate who boasts about what he'll do during his "reign" and refuses to condemn the KKK cannot lead a conservative movement in America.

Chuck Todd referred to the Republican primary as a version of Mad Max: Fury Road-- "chaotic, brutal, disturbing, and still mesmerizing... This is more than a mess for the Republican Party; it is the GOP potentially coming apart before our very eyes-- no matter who ultimately becomes the party's nominee or how long it takes. As our friend Amy Walter observes, 'That rumbling sound you hear is the GOP breaking apart. It's been divided for years, but Trump is catalyst for its 'creative destruction.'"

The media that Trumpf has played like a Stratovarius all along is, now that it's too late, starting to denounce him, even MSNBC's Morning Shill: "It’s breathtaking. That is disqualifying right there. To say you don’t know about the Ku Klux Klan? You don’t know about David Duke? ... I mean is he really so stupid that he thinks Southerners aren’t offended by the Ku Klux Klan and David Duke? Is he really so ignorant of Southern voters that he thinks this is the way to their heart-- to go neutral, to play Switzerland when you’re talking about the Klan? And to say he doesn’t know enough information about the Klan to condemn them-- exactly what does Donald Trump expect to learn in the next 24 hours about the Klan." Conservatives are upset that the tenor of their party's debate is about spray tans, pants wetting and small penises, while even so widely acknowledged a lowlife as Rahm Emanuel can point to Trumpf and get up on high horse: "Donald Trump, from The Apprentice show, that was kind of a faux reality show where you audition for a job. He's now auditioning for the biggest job in America, and it's not just the biggest job in America, the biggest job in the world. And over the weekend, whether it was dealing with Mussolini or David Duke, his statements or the lack of clarity around his statements, you know, you sleep in the bed you make. And I think that playing with dark forces comes back to haunt you. And this is not a joke."

And yet... and yet, it still isn't clear to some people that Hillary is the definitive lesser of two evils! Fredric Dicker's NY Post story yesterday was widely discussed because it claims Hillary could even lose New York to Trumpf, which seems preposterous, not because she's any good; she isn't. But because he's just so, so awful.

Confidential polling data shows Hillary Clinton could lose the presidential election in heavily Democratic New York to Donald Trump as the GOP front-runner’s support grows to the point of being "surprisingly strong," The Post has learned.

The poll results, from Democratic and Republican legislative races, have surprised many leading Dems, virtually all of whom have endorsed Clinton, while confounding and energizing GOP leaders, many of whom until recently have been opposed to Trump.

"There are some Democrats who think that Hillary can be taken if Trump mounts a strong campaign," one of the state’s most prominent Democrats said.

...The new polls, a second source said, showed Trump’s support, even without Bloomberg in the race, was "surprisingly strong" in Westchester and on Long Island, the key suburbs often viewed as crucial swing bellwethers on how statewide elections will turn out.

The polls found that Clinton often had higher negative ratings with voters than did the more controversial Trump, whose inflammatory pronouncements have often angered and even horrified many of his fellow Republicans.

"In the suburbs and upstate, Trump has a net positive while Hillary is a net negative," one longtime Republican operative contended. “She’s more of a liability than many Democrats realized.”

Some of the polls also found a greater degree of intensity among Trump’s potential voters than among Clinton’s, a finding that mirrors the stronger GOP turnouts that have been registered in the presidential primaries.

A publicly disclosed Siena College poll of Long Island voters last week found Trump narrowly beating Clinton among Long Island voters, 41 percent to 38 percent, while he was crushing his two nearest GOP primary opponents, Marco Rubio and John Kasich, by 37 percentage points each.

There is exactly one way to save America from Trump: make sure Bernie is the Democratic nominee. Whether it's "fair" or not, Hillary is so disliked and so distrusted by independent voters, that poll after poll after poll shows they will not vote for her. It's an ugly little truth that no one wants to talk about, but neither will millions of Democrats who are just sick of enabling Wall Street shills and lackeys, which is all she's ever been. So, you want to prevent Trumpf from sitting in the Oval Office? Try the thermometer:

Goal Thermometer

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