One of Several Sanders Paths to a Win

Robert W. McChesney, Prof. of Media and Communications, University of Illinois, comments on the Sanders-Clinton race going forward (source: DKos diarist Get The Word Out)

by Gaius Publius

Recently we took yet another look at the Clinton-Trump side of the race and found, shall we say, some risk for the Democratic Party, should they choose that path.

Here I'd like to take the first of several looks at the Sanders side of the race, in particular, one of several paths he has to a victory. We've looked at work by DKos diarist and master data-stitian MattTX (here); I've seen analyses that take social media indicators into account (image source), and several others, including some indication of a much more promising path by Nate Silver's site that adjusts for their "mistake" in Michigan.

But let's take a look at this, a thoughtful projection by a former DKos-diarist and now redditor (yep, another escapee) that looks at five factors — [1] racial diversity, [2] internet penetration, [3] the intersection of both race and internet penetration, [4] youth voting, and [5] income average — to see which were present in which of Sanders' wins, and then projects a result for post-March 15 contests. (For a fuller explanation of the factors and how they played out in the pre-March 15 contests, I refer you to the piece.)

For reference, I personally have Bernie Sanders winning at least seven of the eight contests between March 15 and April 9, just prior to the New York primary on April 19, with nearly 375 delegates to be decided in that period. Sanders should also win 12 of the next 15, those following New York. (Sanders delegate deficit, with all March 15 delegates finally allocated, along with the Democrats Overseas primary, in which he beat Clinton by more than two-to-one, is a manageable minus-321.) My personal projection is that between March 15 and the New York primary in mid-April, Sanders will have reduced that lead by 100 delegates or more, assuming his momentum continues.

Here are the projections (made prior to the remaining March contests) by the diarist mentioned above. As you read or reread this, some of these contests may have been decided, but I present it anyway as one template for a Sanders win, to encourage you going forward and so you can keep score at home.

I've grouped his predictions by contest date and added (slightly rounded) delegate counts per date:

[March 22 — more than 130 delegates]
Arizona: Bernie will either win or lose by 5% margin. [Factor 1, 4]
Idaho: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 1, 4]
Utah: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]

[March 26 — more than 140 delegates]
Alaska: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]
Hawaii: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 5]
Washington: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]

[April 5 and 9 — 100 delegates]
Wisconsin: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 5]
Wyoming: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]

[April 19 — more than 380 delegates]
New York: Bernie will either win or lose between 5% (him) or 10% (Clinton). [Factor 2]

[April 26 — 20 delegates]
Connecticut: Bernie will win or lose within 5% [Factor 2, 5]
Delaware: Bernie will lose by around 15%+ [Factor 5]
Maryland: Bernie will win or lose by around a 5% [Factor 2, 5]
Pennsylvania: Bernie will win or lose within a 5% [Factor 2, 5]
Rhode Island: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 5]

[May 3 through June 5 — more than 300 delegates]
Indiana: Bernie will lose by around 10-15% [Factor 4]
Guam: Bernie will win by around 15%+ [Factor 3]
West Virginia: Bernie will win or tie within +-5%. [Factor 1]
Kentucky: Bernie will win or lose within a factor of +-5%. [Factor 1]
Oregon: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 5]
Virgin Islands: Bernie will lose by 10%+ margin. [A major lack of internet connectivity cancels out Factor 1]
Puerto Rico: Bernie will win or lose within +-5% [Factor 1]

[June 7 — almost 700 delegates]
California: Bernie will win by 20%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]
Montana: Bernie will win by 10%+ [Factor 1]
New Jersey: Bernie will win or lose by +-5%. [Factor 2, 5]
New Mexico: Bernie will win or lose by +-5%. [1, 4]
North Dakota: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 3, 4, 5]
South Dakota: Bernie will win by 15%+ [Factor 1, 5]

[June 14 — 20 delegates]
District of Columbia: Bernie will lose by around 10%+ [Factor 5]

In total, between March 15 and the last contest on June 14, more than 2000 delegates (2020 to be exact) will have been allocated.

By the way, most of those wins by ">15%" will be by much greater than 15%. Some will be blowouts. The average of the Sanders' wins prior to March 15 is 65%, a 30-point differential over Clinton in those contests. Note that the projections in New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey look especially promising. Close losses in those states are as good as close wins, especially in light of likely large winning margins elsewhere.

This is an exciting contest, as well as, unfortunately, a seriously consequential one for the Party and the nation. Stay tuned. I'll offer my own projections in due course.

(Blue America has endorsed Bernie Sanders for president. If you'd like to help out, go here. If you'd like to "phone-bank for Bernie," go here. You can volunteer in other ways by going here. And thanks!)

GP