Sunday, January 10, 2016

Can The GOP Establishment Stop Trumpf Without Enabling Cruz?


What do delusional wing nuts say to each other when they're alone-- even alone on a radio station in the country's biggest media market? Well on the nutty 970-AM show John Catsimatidis does on Sundays, crackpot "economist" Arthur Laffer said that he will be surprised "if the Republicans don’t take 45, 46, 47 states out of the 50" in the November election. "I think we’re going to landslide this election... When I look at these candidates, I don’t see one of them who wouldn’t do a great job as president. I think Donald Trump is phenomenal, I think Rand Paul has done a great job, I even like Jeb Bush-- I think Jeb Bush is great, he did a wonderful job in Florida. Chris Christie--phenomenal." Might be worth mentioning that 96% of economists not not agree with Laffer on his economic theories. We'll get to test out his political astuteness-- 45-47 states-- next November.

The rubric cube the Republican establishment is trying to grapple with comes down to a simple proposition, getting rid of Herr Trumpf without handing the nomination over to Ted Cruz. But since the two of them do inmate the fractured Republican field, it's a very tough proposition to navigate. If Cruz stumbles in Iowa in 3 weeks and Herr wins there and in New Hampshire, it could actually be game over. No Republican has been nominated for president since 1976 without winning either the Iowa caucuses or the New Hampshire primary. The stepped up birther attack of Cruz this week-- coming from opposite ends of the party (Herr and McCain)-- are more opportunistic than coordinated. They may be working though, since Trumpf is creeping back up in the Iowa polls. The new poll from Marist (NBC/Wall Street Journal) shows Cruz ahead among likely GOP caucus goers 28-24%, not nearly as yawning a gap as the mid-December CBS poll showed-- Cruz 40% and Herr 31%.In fact, this new Marist poll shows that potential-- as opposed to "likely"-- caucus goers prefer Trumpf and that a bigger-than-expected turnout would result in him beating Cruz 26-24%.

And in New Hampshire... Trump's lead is mammoth and growing. He's polling higher than his top two "competitors" combined, establishment laners Rubio (14%) and Christie (12%). Nevertheless, it's clear that most Republicans voters do not want Trumpf as their party's nominee. 70% of likely voters in New Hampshire's primary prefer someone other than Trumpf. And 60% prefer someone other than Trumpf or Cruz. Too bad all those establishment candidates-- even the ones with zero chance-- are so wrapped up in their egos that they can't face reality and just let go of a dream that's not going to happen.

Instead of attacking Rubio as an inexperienced spoiled brat, Christie-- who Irish betting house PaddyPower is giving 25/1 odds won't be president (better than Kasich's 200/1 odds, but still...-- could use some of the $2 million crooked hedge-fund manager Steven Cohen gave his superPAC to go on WMUR and say, "Hey, I know this isn't my time but there's something more important at stake here-- my party and our country. We can't let an unprepared fascist and thuggish bully like Trumpf get into the White House. I beg all my followers to vote for Marco." Jeb could do the same thing, as well as Kasich and Fiorina, perhaps even Rand Paul-- although in Paul's case, actual principles rather than just careerism come into play, complicating it. But the point is, they really could stop Trumpf now. But they won't. Because they're Republican politicians and that's what Republican politicians do. It's all about the greed and selfishness. And screw the rest of us.



At 9:34 AM, Anonymous Bahis said...

I Think the republicans will get about %42.


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