Sunday, November 15, 2015

Will 2016 Be The End Of The Road For The Republican Party?

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In the last few weeks we've referred a few times to the newest poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research's Democracy Corps. Greenberg is Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg and Friday he penned an OpEd for the Washington Post, Why 2016 could be shattering for Republicans. Maybe a better title would have been "Why 2016 could be shattering for Republicans or why it might not be." His premise is that there's a bugeoning new majority pushing for "the revolutionary economic and social changes" that makes the GOP's counterrevolutionary assault antithetical. Works for me... and it was the big talking point when Democracy Corps released their poll a week or so ago.

Greenberg asserted that changes in technology, energy, immigration, racial and ethnic diversity, the family, religious observance and gender roles "are accelerating the emergence of a new America."
Consider that nearly 40 percent of New York City’s residents are foreign-born, with Chinese the second-largest group behind Dominicans. The foreign-born make up nearly 40 percent of Los Angeles’s residents and 58 percent of Miami’s. A majority of U.S. households are headed by unmarried people, and, in cities, 40 percent of households include only a single person. Church attendance is in decline, and non-religious seculars now outnumber mainline Protestants. Three-quarters of working-age women are in the labor force, and two-thirds of women are the breadwinners or co-breadwinners of their households. The proportion of racial minorities is approaching 40 percent, but blowing up all projections are the 15 percent of new marriages that are interracial. People are moving from the suburbs to the cities. And in the past five years, two-thirds of millennial college graduates have settled in the 50 largest cities, transforming them.

Shifting attitudes were underscored in this year’s Gallup Poll when 60 to 70 percent of the country said gay and lesbian relations, having a baby outside of marriage, sex between an unmarried man and woman, and divorce are all “morally acceptable.”

The United States is emerging out of its revolutions as racially blended, immigrant, multinational and multilingual-- and diversity is becoming more central to our multicultural identity.

Further, these revolutionary transformations have accelerated the growth of a new majority coalition of racial minorities, single women, millennials and seculars. Together, these groups formed 51 percent of the electorate in 2012, but our analysis of census survey data and exit poll projections indicates that they will comprise fully 63 percent in 2016. With these growing groups each supporting Hillary Clinton by more than 2 to 1 in today’s polls, it is fair to say that the United States has reached an electoral tipping point.

The Republican Party’s battle to defeat this new majority has reached a tipping point, too. The brand of the Republican Party today has probably not been as tarnished since the Watergate era.

Republicans have joined a ferocious and intensifying decade-long counterrevolution in an attempt to stop this new majority from governing successfully. In 2004, George W. Bush campaign strategist Karl Rove launched the battle for American values when he gave up on the so-called swing voter and worked to engage millions more evangelicals. That has required pouring ever more fuel on the fire-- including warning of Armageddon if the liberal Democrats were to govern.

This battle has left the Republicans with mostly married voters, as well as the oldest, most rural and most religiously observant voters in the country. That creates formidable odds against its winning an electoral college majority.

It has also left a Republican Party where three-quarters of its base voters are tea party supporters, evangelicals or religiously observant. That in turn has catapulted to the top of the Republican presidential race candidates who promise to challenge this new America before it’s too late.

That this counterrevolution has reached its own tipping point is evident in the shrinking proportion of people who think of themselves as conservative. When Republicans challenged President Obama in the off-year elections of 2010, 46 percent of the country was conservative at the high point. That figure is now 37 percent.

For Republicans, 2016 will prove to be no normal election, because it will confirm that the new America is here and that the counterrevolution has lost. That is why I expect the result to be shattering for the Republican Party as we know it.
But, as Greenberg's own research has shown, that emerging Democratic majority may not be enthused enough to come out to vote. If Hillary-- who, for example, said last night during the debate that she supports Wall Street because of 9/11 (rather than because the banksters have given her millions of dollars)-- is the nominee, many of these people may say "why bother?" Lesser of two evils? For sure, but is that enough? First woman president-- her best argument-- but is that enough? I'm sure it is for many people; she better hope that'll be 51%. (You can contribute to Bernie's campaign here.)


As for the Republicans, Reuters just released a new poll of Republican voters (Nov. 13). I see they haven't started polling Romney again. They better do something or they're going to wake up with a pretty catastrophic, unpleasant fait accompli.
Trump 34%
no sale
Dr. Ben 19.6%
Rubio 9.7%
Cruz 7.7%
Jeb 6.4%
Wouldn't vote 5.8%
Huckabee 4.1%
Fiorina 3.7%
Rand 3.0%
Kasich 1.8%

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2 Comments:

At 6:24 PM, Blogger Theodore Wirth said...

Do not kid yourself. 'Pubs have long been building their ground game while Dems have been grousing. They own Congress, SCOTUS and local and state levels in too many ways. The worst is yet to come.

 
At 4:22 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wall St needs the GOP to keep the Dems bought. It will not fade away into the darkness.

 

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