Grayson Leads in Latest Polls
by Gaius Publius
Short and sweet. Alan Grayson has a comfortable lead over Patrick Murphy in the Democratic race for Florida's open Senate seat (tentatively mid-March 2016). It's clearly not over, but what it seems ought to be true, is true.
Florida Politics, which commissioned the poll (emphasis theirs):
Alan Grayson 30%, Patrick Murphy 23% in poll of Dem. primary for U.S. SenateThis is the poll that Howie alluded to in a previous post. The polling firm went to great pains to be accurate:
In the Democratic primary for Florida’s open U.S. Senate seat, liberal Alan Grayson jumped ahead of his more moderate opponent, fellow Congressman Patrick Murphy, according to new survey released from St. Pete Polls and commissioned by Florida Politics.
The first statewide survey of the Democratic Senate race since Grayson formally announced his campaign found Grayson leading Murphy by nearly seven points – 30 to 23 percent. Just over 17 percent said “someone else,” and 22 percent are undecided.
Political newcomer Pam Keith, a Navy veteran and corporate attorney, comes in third at 8 percent. This poll stands in stark contrast to a recent poll from Gravis Marketing that pegged Grayson with 63% of the vote. Other polls, including a June poll from Public Policy Polling, showed Patrick ahead of Grayson.
Democrats have a high opinion of Grayson, with +19-point positive approval ratings: 38 percent favorable to 19 percent unfavorable, while a large number (43 percent) remain unsure.
Murphy’s favorable rating is also at +19 points, with 34 percent having a positive opinion and 15 percent unfavorable.
To get the most precise results possible, St Pete Polls carefully developed the random call lists used for statewide polling. Pollsters took proportional numbers of Democratic voters from every one of Florida’s 120 State House districts, ensuring a high probability of geographical and demographic accuracy.If you'd like to help Grayson in his Senate bid, click here. You can adjust the split at the link.
As for the accuracy of his survey, Matt Florell of St. Pete Polls said his firm has had an impressive run the last three years, with several of its polls coming with the margin of error with final election results.
The polling “almost always predicted the eventual winner of the election,” Florell explained, citing the recent Jacksonville mayoral election and many of the general election races in 2014.