Friday, April 17, 2015

Wisconsin Is In Play-- But No One Has Told The DCCC


Republicans are afraid that unless their nominee wins a couple of blue states, they're doomed to another painful Electoral College defeat. New Jersey voters have made it clear that there's no way their governor, Chris Christie, will get their votes. Most New Jersey voters say he's unfit to be president. Christie says even if he loses New Jersey's 14 electoral votes, he can still pick up New Hampshire (4 votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes). Pennsylvania shares a lot of media coverage with much of New Jersey and Christie says that's why he will win the state. Except the New Jersey consumers of that media-- or nearly 70% of them-- say he shouldn't be president. The last time Pennsylvania gave its 20 electoral votes to a Republican was 7 elections ago-- 1988-- despite floods of baseless Republican optimism every four years.

It's been even longer since Wisconsin awarded its electoral votes (10) to a Republican. The last time was Reagan's 49-state 1988 reelection sweep. But Governor Scott Walker, Republicans crow, will change that. A new poll from Marquette Law School indicates that Walker would be far from a shoo-in. In fact, if the election were held today, Hillary Clinton would beat him 52-40%. Walker's job approval rating has slipped from 49% in October 2014 to 41% now. It appears that 2016 is not going to be a good year for Wisconsin Republicans. Russ Feingold is leading right-wing nut Rom Johnson 54-38%. Feingold's favorability rating is 47% and Johnson's is 32% and, by way of comparison, the other incumbent, Tammy Baldwin, has a 36% favorable rating.
Voters’ views of the direction of the state have taken a downturn since October. Fifty-three percent say that the state is now on the wrong track while 43 percent say the state is headed in the right direction. In October, 51 percent of registered voters said the state was headed in the right direction while 44 percent said it was on the wrong track.

Voters also see the state’s employment situation as turning down compared to other states, with 52 percent saying that Wisconsin is lagging behind other states in job creation, 34 percent saying that the state is doing about the same as other states and 8 percent saying that the state is creating jobs faster than other states. In October, 42 percent said the state was lagging, 38 percent said about the same and 13 percent said Wisconsin was creating jobs faster.

Opinion about the state’s budget situation has also turned more negative, with 38 percent saying the budget picture is worse than several years ago, 25 percent saying it is about the same and 33 percent saying it is better now. In October, 27 percent said the budget was worse, 23 percent about the same and 44 percent saying it was better than a few years ago.

Voters are opposed to a number of cuts proposed by the Walker budget. Seventy-eight percent oppose cutting $127 million from the K-12 public school budget, while 18 percent support the proposal. Seventy percent oppose cutting $300 million from the University of Wisconsin System budget; 26 percent support this.

Sixty percent oppose making the Natural Resources Board an advisory-only board, while 30 percent support that change.

...Voters were asked their view of the recently passed “right to work” legislation, with a question that provided two arguments frequently made by supporters of the legislation and two arguments frequently made by opponents. The order of supporting and opposing arguments was randomized, so that about half of respondents heard the supporting arguments first and about half heard the opposing arguments first. The question text was:

Recently the state adopted a “right to work” law that says workers in private companies cannot be required to pay union dues as a condition of employment. Supporters say the law will increase workers’ options to work where they wish and make Wisconsin more attractive for business. Opponents say the law will weaken unions and drive down pay scales for everyone. Do you support or oppose this new law?

Forty-four percent say they support the law while 50 percent say they oppose it, with 5 percent saying they don’t know.

Thirty-four percent of registered voters say that they would like to see Walker run for president while 62 percent would not like him to run. In October 2014, 26 percent wanted him to run and 68 percent did not.  Among those who consider themselves either Republicans or independents leaning toward the Republican Party, 66 percent support a Walker presidential bid, with 29 percent opposed; in October 2014 just 44 percent favored a run with 48 percent opposed.

Asked whether any governor can run for president and still handle his or her duties as governor, 67 percent think that a governor cannot, with 29 percent saying that a governor can do both. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, 48 percent think a governor can do both and 48 percent say a governor cannot.

Clinton leads five potential Republican opponents in hypothetical 2016 matchups among registered voters. Clinton leads Paul 49-41, leads Bush 49-38, leads Walker 52-40, leads Rubio 50-38 and leads Cruz 52-36.
The DNC is looking for a big Hillary Clinton win in 2016 and the DSCC is looking for a big Feingold win. The DCCC? Crickets. Wisconsin has two overwhelmingly blue districts-- Pocan's WI-02 (Madison, D-17) and Moore's WI-04 (Milwaukee, D+23)-- one Republican district that partisan-- Sensenbrenner's WI-04 (R+13). And then there are 5 more swingy districts, Paul Ryan's (R+3), Ron Kind's (D+5), Glenn Grothman's (R+5), Sean Duffy's (R+2) and Reid Ribble's (R+2). Is the DCCC going to take advantage of Hillary and Feingold at the top of the ticket to take back a  couple of House seats? Not a chance! They've recruited no Wisconsin candidates and offered no support to any would-be candidates. Neither Steve Israel nor his puppet Ben Ray Luján has the slightest interest in or understanding of Wisconsin. Expect... nothing from the DCCC.

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At 10:41 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The GOP has exploited the openings Democratic incompetence has provided since forcing Nixon to resign. The Party never recovered after that, as if shocked that they not only had power, but could effectively wield it. They never have again. Instead, they crossed the line to become GOP-lite, and the rest is history.

At 11:34 AM, Anonymous Sue said...

Too true! This sounds just like the situation in


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