What's Next For Staten Island?

"We," said Jon Stewart, getting more serious last month than one usually expects, "are definitely not living in a post-racial society." What he didn't say-- and couldn't have known as the time-- is that the D.A. responsible for failing to get a Grand Jury indictment against the cop who murdered Eric Garner on camera, Dan Donovan, would be propelled-- largely because of that failure in the polarized racial atmosphere of Staten Island-- into the front-runner position for the congressional seat being vacated by convicted felon Michael "Mikey Suits" Grimm.

Staten Island Republican insiders told the Observer yesterday that Mr. Donovan was their preferred candidate, despite the controversy over the Garner case. New York State GOP Chairman Ed Cox has indicated he would prefer to see Staten Island Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis succeed Mr. Grimm, but he has little influence among the local party leaders who will pick the candidate for the special election.

Meanwhile, Steve Israel and Ben Ray Luján-- with self-referential cheer-leading from Chuck Schumer-- are leading the DCCC into another zombie-like death march, dithering for a candidate between Blue Dog Michael McMahon, who was the execrable one-termer who lost to Grimm, and anti-Choice Assemblyman Michael Cusick, who happily describes himself as "a conservative Democrat." Neither has any chance to beat Donovan whatsoever, whose failure to get an indictment in the Garner case has made him a hero among the angry and primitive racists who form the base of the Staten Island Republican Party.

As for Grimm, speculation is pretty much universal that he copped the guilty plea in a deal with the Feds to avoid a long prison term. He'll be sentenced on June 6 and is expected to walk away with a wrist-slap and, more important, no further indictments to a series of criminal activities going back over a decade. Grimm's punishment, aside from the loss of his House seat, is that he will be disbarred-- a felony conviction makes that automatic-- and that he will not be eligible for a congressional pension; one needs to serve in Congress for 5 years for that stupendous lifetime benefit (around $50,000 annually). Had John Kerry's and Walter Jones' Federal Pension Forfeiture Act (the Duke Cunningham Act) passed-- Republicans killed it in committee-- Grimm would have not been eligible for any pension benefits regardless of how long he served. He may lose his congressional health insurance but would be eligible for Obamacare.

Unless Grimm actually goes back to the Mob, his most likely career paths are either Hate Talk Radio or lobbying. That doesn't mean there hasn't been talk, on Staten Island at least, that Grimm still has a bright future as a Republican politician ahead of him.

James Cohen, associate professor at Fordham University School of Law, believes that, despite what some other legal experts have said, Grimm's background as a former Marine, FBI agent and attorney will hurt him in sentencing.

Cohen, a criminal defense attorney, said, "Much of the things that would normally count in his favor, in this case don't count in his favor. He is a former FBI agent who knows better than anyone what the law is and how to break it."

This could be reason for the judge to be harsher in her sentencing, he said.

"This type of crime occurred over a period of time and he knew exactly what he was doing," Cohen said. "He will get jail time and I don't think it's going to be a light amount."

But Richard Flanagan, a political science professor at The College of Staten Island and co-author of the book Staten Island: Conservative Bastion In a Liberal City, thinks things won't be so bad for Grimm.

Regardless of whether he goes to jail, "I don't think he's done" in public office, Flanagan said. "He has demonstrated an ability to win votes even with a cloud over his head."

After being indicted, Grimm won re-election to a third term in November, beating Democrat Domenic M. Recchia Jr. by a 13-point margin, the highest ever for the congressman.

"The way he just dominated Recchia demonstrates he has beat politicians one-on-one," Flanagan said. "There's a lot of second acts in American politics."

Grimm might be able to run successfully for a state or city position on Staten Island's largely Republican South Shore, Flanagan said.

He doesn't expect Grimm to run for Congress again, however.

"Maybe stay out of Washington for a while," he said. "I'm sure the [Republican National Committee] wouldn't welcome him back with open arms."

Political consultant Hank Sheinkopf isn't so sure the congressman has a future in politics.

"He's a convicted felon and there are some people who say he would have a future ... but it would be tough to see how he has a future in politics."

Sheinkopf noted that Grimm's supporters see him as a "local boy done good"-- a former Marine and FBI agent. But could he win another election? "I don't know."

As for whether that's something Grimm would be interested in, Grimm's father-figure, mentor, former borough president and congressman, Guy Molinari, said he doesn't see it happening.

"I don't think Michael will look at the political sector again," he said. "I think he will go into the private arena."