Likeliest Congressional One Termers

Robert Dold, GOP freshman in the bluest district Steve Israel managed to lose

This morning, Roll Call ran a short list of the likeliest congressional one-termers. It wasn't based on the likelihood of whacked out extremists saying something blatantly insane. Newly elected radicals like Jody Hice (R-GA), Glenn Grothman (R-WI), Mark Walker (R-NC), Tom Emmer (R-MN), and Ken Buck (R-CO) were elected by voters who knew exactly what they were buying... and went for it anyway. You can expect, for example, the kind of primitive rural voters and the smug, well-fed, white suburbanites in Columbia County and around Lake Oconee in the R+14 north central Georgia district who were happy enough with science denying crackpot Paul Broun to be just as happy with his replacement, gun-worshipper Jody Hice, the guy who says women need to get permission from their husbands or fathers (or sons) if they want to run for office. That doesn't make any sense to folks in Athens but 66.5% of the voters backed Hice on November 4 and they're not going to care all that much when he starts howling about how every home should have a bazooka. Nope, Jody Hice is not going to be a one-term congressman. Worse yet, the 42 GOP freshmen elected Ken Buck Republican freshman class president!

The freshmen who are most likely to lose their seats are the freshmen who were elected in blue districts. The 5 fringe nuts listed above, are in red districts Romney won with big margins:

• GA-10 (Hice)- Romney-63%
• WI-06 (Grothman)- Romney- 53%
• NC-06 (Walker)- 58%
• MN-06 (Emmer)- Romney- 56%
• CO-04 (Buck)- Romney- 59%

Compare that to what freshmen like Robert Dold (R-IL), John Katko (R-NY) and Cresent Hardy (R-NV) will have to contend with in 2016. With Steve Israel, his incompetence and perfidious deals with the Republicans finally gone from the DCCC, Republicans are going to have a much less easy time holding onto the Obama districts they just scooped up. These are Republican freshmen who are going to be representing a lot of Democratic voters-- in districts Obama won in 2008 and 2012, like these half dozen with Obama 2012 victory percentages:

• Robert Dold (IL-10)- Obama- 58%
• John Katko (NY-24)- Obama- 57%
• Rod Blum (IA-01)- Obama 56%
• Cresent Hardy (NV-04)- Obama- 54%
• Bruce Poliquin (ME-02)- Obama- 53%
• Carlos Curbelo (FL-26)- Obama- 53%
• Tom MacArthur (NJ-03)- Obama- 53%
• Elise Stefanik (NY-21)- Obama- 52%
• Mike Bost (IL-12)- Obama- 50%
• Lee Zeldin (NY-01)- Obama- 50%
• Frank Guinta (NH-01)- Obama- 50%
• David Jolly (FL-13)- Obama- 50%

That will be a good list for new DCCC Chair, Ben Ray Luján (D-NM), to start his targeting strategies... even before getting to the Republican incumbents Israel left off the table through incompetent recruiting, lack of vision and in the shady deals he made with the NRCC, like Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-FL), Fred Upton (R-MI), John Kline (R-MN), Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), Michael Grimm (R-NY), Mike Fitzpatrick (R-PA), Scott Rigell (R-VA), John Mica (R-FL), Eric Paulsen (R-MN), Peter King (R-NY), Charles Dent (R-PA), Dave Reichert (WA-08), Sean Duffy (R-WI), Reid Ribble (R-WI), Jim Gerlach (R-PA), Joe Heck (R-NV), Chris Gibson (R-NY), David Valadao (R-CA), Darrell Issa (R-CA), Jeff Denham (R-CA), Rodney Davis (R-IL)... and three more freshmen: Steve Knight (R-CA), David Young (R-IA), and Barbara Comstock (R-VA).

Roll Call reminds us that one Democrat, Blue Dog Brad Ashford is a sure NRCC target in the red Omaha, Nebtraska district he just narrowly won, 76,354 (48.6%) to 72,222 (46.0%) against bumbling GOP incumbent Lee Terry, a district Romney carried by 7 points.

Republicans say Terry’s gaffes, and his gaffes alone, were what made him vulnerable. Ashford successfully capitalized on Terry’s chronic foot-in-mouth disease to win-- with a major investment by national Democrats.

But there’s a long line of potential Republican opponents who could challenge Ashford in two years.

Republican Chip Maxwell, a tea party Republican who toyed with an independent bid in 2014, already announced his intention to run.

There are other potential Republican challengers:

• Former Omaha City Council member Dan Welch, who lost a bid for mayor of Omaha in 2013.
• Current Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert, the first woman elected to that office.
• Attorney Bryan Slone, who lost a bid for governor in the Cornhusker State.
• State Sen. Beay McCoy, who also ran an unsuccessful bid for governor in Nebraska.
• Omaha City Council woman Aimee Melton.

As one of the few GOP-leaning seats held by a Democrat on the map, expect Republicans to line up behind their nominee.


Rep. Bruce Braley’s poor performance in the Senate race helped [Rod] Blum pull off an upset in this northeastern Iowa district, which President Barack Obama carried by a 14-point margin in 2012.

They continued with a very Inside-the-Beltway look at some of the races, mostly a product of cluelessness, some of it flat-out incorrect. If you want to skip part of this post, skip the rest of this stuff from Roll Call; I shouldn't even be including it.

Democrats said their candidate, state Rep. Pat Murphy, had baggage, and Republicans capitalized on it-- including video footage of an angry tirade on the state House floor. Privately, Democrats griped Murphy ran a lazy campaign, assuming the seat would be safe for him.

But Democrats say there is a deep bench here, including the four Democrats Murphy defeated in the June primary. They include Cedar Rapids City Councilwoman Monica Vernon, the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in 2014, and state Rep. Anesa Kajtazovic.

Democrats concede they’ll have to spend a few million on the race, but they are optimistic they can pick up the seat in 2016.

Dismal turnout in Nevada helped propel Hardy over Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford, 49 percent to 46 percent-- even though Obama carried the district by double digits last time.

But in 2016, soon-to-be Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid will be up for re-election. Democrats plan to run an aggressive get-out-the-vote operation, and party leaders say that will all but sink Hardy’s re-election hopes.

The DCCC is aiming to convince Horsford to run a comeback bid for his seat. Privately, Nevada Democrats confess they have a thin bench, thanks to a statewide drubbing earlier this month.

[John] Katko defeated Rep. Dan Maffei, by an astonishing 20-point margin in this Syracuse-based district-- marking the second time a GOP wave felled the Democrat. But the district prefers Democrats in presidential cycles, picking Obama by a 16-point margin in 2012.

If Hillary Rodham Clinton is the Democratic presidential nominee, she’ll likely get strong support from the Empire State, where it’s rumored she’ll base her campaign headquarters. That stacks the odds against Katko.

Maffei could look to run again, but after losing the seat twice he could sit out another bid.

Current Syracuse Mayor Stephanie Miner, the former co-chair of the state party, was also mentioned by Democratic operatives as a potential challenger. Miner won re-election last year.

[Bruce] Poliquin captured this open seat in northern Maine by a 5-point margin. His victory was boosted by Republican Gov. Paul LePage’s win, as well as a third-party candidate who drew 11 percent of the vote in the House contest.

But Maine’s 2nd District prefers Democratic in presidential elections. Obama carried the district by a 9-point margin in 2012.

And Poliquin captured the seat with 47 percent of the vote-- meaning more than a majority of the district voted for someone other than Poliquin. Democratic operatives say that leaves him vulnerable in 2016.

National Democrats [i.e., party hacks from EMILY's List, the New Dems and Israel's DCCC] hope state Sen. Emily Cain, who lost to Poliquin, mounts another challenge. Cain could not be reached for comment, but she told the Kennebec Journal she is “flattered” by Democrats’ request and is contemplating another run.

Democratic state Rep. Jeff McCabe is also contemplating a bid, the Kennebec Journal reported.

Also this morning, Alex Isenstadt at Politico was sure to mention that the DC Democratic politicians, basically incapable of learning from their mistakes, are eagerly re-recruiting some of the shitty losing candidates from this cycle, primarily untalented people, like New Dem, Brad Schneider, who weren't any good at their jobs. The ultimate Democratic loser, Steve Israel, is pushing the hardest to get defeated candidates to run again. Here's the narrow, dysfunctional thinking among Beltway types out of touch with America:

Only two weeks after a political blowout that left Democrats with their smallest House minority in over 80 years, at least a half-dozen of the party’s candidates who fell short are already being courted to run again in 2016. And some of them are seriously considering it.

Their thinking reflects what has become prevailing wisdom in Democratic circles: that presidential elections are as favorable to the party as midterms are punishing. Democrats who lost close races in battleground districts this year could just as easily come out on top in 2016, when the electorate is sure to be younger, more diverse and more liberal.

“There are numerous good Democratic candidates who ran solid campaigns who were nonetheless swallowed up by a toxic national environment,” said Zac McCrary, a Democratic pollster who worked on a number of campaigns this year. “In 2016, the political climate should be at least somewhat better for Democrats and the composition of the electorate will certainly be more Democratic leaning.”

While they recover from painful losses, aides to many of the ousted members say they’re convinced they lost not because of any serious failure on their part but because of turnout dynamics that simply worked against them this year. Two years ago, they point out, six of the 10 defeated House Democratic incumbents won by 8 percentage points or more-- an indication of just how sharp the party’s drop-off was this midterm year.

What’s more, the strategists point out, Democrats won’t have the Obama factor to deal with anymore; instead, they believe an open race for the White House, with Hillary Clinton potentially leading the ticket, could turbocharge the candidacies of down-ballot hopefuls.

Among the candidates Isenstadt says they are courting are Schneider, utterly worthless Blue Dog Pete Gallego (TX) and Steve Horsford, who wouldn't have lost if not for Israel's own reflexive racism.