Who Will Be The Front Runner For Barbara Boxer's Senate Seat In 2016?

Schiff and Newsom, the 2 from the Republican wing of the Democratic Party

-by Anonymous Operative

A little birdy tells me that Senator Barbara Boxer will not be seeking re-election in 2016. If in fact this source is accurate—- please note that this source accurately predicted Congressman Henry Waxman’s abrupt decision to retire—- a political war is soon set to begin in California’s Democratic politics. This war will be between a set of Democratic factions which are all but conventional.

It is assumed by most Beltway pundits that primary politics has become an expensive battle between the corporate/conservative wing of the Democratic Party (often referred to as “moderate wing”) and the progressive wing (sometimes referred to as the “Elizabeth Warren Wing”). However, because California is so diverse in its voter and donor populations, the 2016 Democratic senatorial primary will highlight intra party divisions that defy the usual corporate/conservative vs. progressive dynamic.

The first dynamic I’d like to point out is the racial dynamic. Due to California’s racial melting-pot quality, there will be various candidates who make the claim that California must be represented by their own race. The Democratic bench has the lineup for such a battle: Kamala Harris (Black), Antonio Villaraigosa (Hispanic), and John Chiang (Asian). Rest assured, there will be more individuals trying to claim these racial mantles however I do believe those I’ve selected can make the most natural arguments for their appropriate races.

The second dynamic I’d like to point out is the labor/union dynamic. Again, because California is unlike most any other state, labor has the potential to carry a candidate(s) a long way in the race for Boxer’s seat. Especially because so many unions have felt incredibly slighted by the Brown administration (the most recent iteration) I foresee labor attempting to push forward a candidate of their own. If she weren’t so new to her supervisorial seat, Hilda Solis would be the natural choice.

The third dynamic is the corporate one. This gets a bit tricky.

California has pockets of great economic/financial success, however, they are vastly removed from one another. To name a few, technology (Silicon Valley), international trade (Los Angeles, Bay Area), agriculture, Big Oil, and entertainment (Hollywood) are all successful industries that have the financial capacity to boost candidacies on a state wide level. If there were a candidate who would like to be identified as the “business-friendly Democrat,” it will be a herculean task to receive the political and financial backing of these robust, yet diverse industries.

I foresee Lieutenant Governor Gavin Newsom making a play for this position (all the while wearing his pseudo progressive smiley face and hair gel), however he will run into issues in Silicon Valley where I see the prospect of a Tom Steyer or Sheryl Sandberg laying claim to being the first tech/venture capital senator as likely.

The final division I see playing out in a way very new to Democratic primary politics is the issue of Israel. For a while, the punditry has discussed the prospect of a Jewish retreat from Democratic politics. While I think that concept is a bit misguided, I do see the California Democratic primary having a candidate who runs as the pro-Israel candidate. Let’s face it, there is a lot of money to be raised from the AIPAC community throughout the state and the nation. Watch for Haim Saban puppet Adam Schiff here.

For a political operative, what will be quite interesting in this race is that whomever wins, cannot do so simply as the bearer of one of these qualities (ie; racial, labor, religious, or corporate support). There will need to be a concerted effort to build a California style “rainbow coalition” in order to win the primary.

For example, I see Kamala Harris’s race, sex, and business friendliness (Cory Bookeresque) as a potential winning combination for her. Although, simply, she just may want to wait to be Governor! Similarly, I see Tom Steyer’s money, environmental activism, and national attention as a potential winning combination should he want to leave his current success for the dreariness of Capitol Hill.

While it’s unfortunate that many of the potential candidates are total corporate sell outs, I do foresee the 2016 Democratic senatorial primary in California as a game changer in American political strategy.