Is Bill Clinton's Endorsement Really The Only One That Moves Voters This Year?

Even Bill can't perform miracles when the candidate is completely implausible

Author Steven King is such an iconic figure in Maine that I have to think his fulsome endorsement of Shenna Bellows for Senate helped— at the very least— to draw much-needed attention to her race. When King endorsed her, name recognition was what Bellows needed most of all— that and people realizing they needed to check her out and not just settle on what they already have. But sway votes? That’s another kettle of fish altogether.

Peter Case, Dan Godlin and Rickie Lee Jones have done recent fundraising and get-out-the-vote events for Alan Grayson. They helped raise awareness and raise money… but did someone in Orlando whose favorite song of all time was Chuck E.’s In Love decide to vote for Grayson because of Rickie Lee’s endorsement?

Blue America produced and aired a celebrity-packed TV spot for Marianne Williamson. Frances Fisher, Marsha Cross, Francesca Eastwood, Shohreh Aghdashloo, Catherine Roberts, Debbon Ayer, Molly Weber, Nancy Moonves, Amanda Perez, Jody Carter, and Bonnie Bower all appeared in it… and Moby did the music. Marianne had also lined up musicians Chaka Khan, Alanis Morissette, Jason Mraz, Steven Tyler not just to endorse her but to play fundraising events for her. Did any of this sway voters directly?

A wealthy vanity candidate in the same primary, a random lawyer named David Kanuth, wound up with an endorsement from conservative-leaning rapper LL Cool J but came in 9th with 1.4% of the vote (after spending a gargantuan $1,033,721). But what about endorsements from politicians? In that same CA-33 congressional race, Wendy Greuel was endorsed by a widely disliked former L.A. mayor, Antonio Villaraigosa, while Ted Lieu was endorsed by widely admired former L.A. mayor, Dick Riordon and the even more widely admired current mayor, Eric Garcetti. Lieu made it into the November runoff; Greuel crashed and burned.

Yesterday, Reid Epstein, writing for the Wall Street Journal, reported on a new Annenberg Public Policy Center survey that concludes political endorsements aren’t netting candidates any votes, with one exception: candidates endorsed by Bill Clinton. Bill— not Hill.

Former President Bill Clinton scored the best among eight prominent figures when registered voters were asked if a campaign endorsement would help or hurt a candidate.

An endorsement from Mr. Clinton would make 38% of people look at the candidate more favorably, compared to 24% who would take a less favorable view. No other politician in the survey had a net positive more than one percentage point, the mark earned by Mrs. Clinton and First Lady Michelle Obama.

President Barack Obama, 2012 GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and GOP Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky all would leave a more negative view of their endorsee among registered voters.

But with campaigns targeting base voters, the partisan numbers may be more instructive than the universe of registered voters. Among Democrats, 70% say an endorsement from Mr. Clinton would leave a more favorable view of a candidate. Mrs. Clinton’s score was 65%, Mr. Obama’s 60% and Mrs. Obama’s 56%.

For Republicans, the best campaign surrogate is Mr. Romney at 59%. Less than a third of Republicans said that Messrs. Christie, Paul and Cruz would leave a positive view of whoever they endorse— the latest evidence of the split nature of the GOP base.

Only Mr. Clinton and Mr. Paul would give a boost to candidates from independent voters, the poll found.

That said, both Clintons endorsed, raised money for and campaigned for Chelsea Clinton’s mother-in-law, Marjorie Margolies, in her recent failed bid to win the Democratic nomination for her old congressional seat in Northeast Philly, PA-13. A fiscal conservative social liberal best known for her— and her ex-husband’s— shocking personal corruption, Margolies, who was also endorsed by a variety of Establishment hacks like Steny Hoyer, spent $1,269,080 to come in a distant second with 23.1% to winner fiscally liberal/socially conservative Brendan Boyle’s 55.5%. He spent about half of what she spent and had no big name endorsers.