Good News For The GOP: People Have Forgotten About Gun Violence As An Election Issue

So far this cycle, the NRA has handed out direct checks to congressional campaigns to the tune of $540,612. $20,450 went to Democrats and $520,162 went to Republicans. Virtually every Republican gets a piece— and the only Democrats who get anything from them are a handful of the worst of the reactionary Democratic gun shills— John Barrow (Blue Dog-GA), Nick Rahall (Blue Dog-WV), Kurt Shrader (Blue Dog-OR), Tim Walz (MN), Sanford Bishop (Blue Dog-GA), Henry Cuellar (Blue Dog-TX), Collin Peterson (Blue Dog-MN). All their biggest bets, however, were on Republicans like Mitch McConnell ($9,900), Joni Ernst ($7,450), Steve Southerland ($7,450), Barbara Comstock ($5,000) and, oops, Eric Cantor ($9,900) and Ralph Hall ($5,950). There’s every reason to believe that by the end of the cycle, the amount will have increased dramatically. Last cycle the total was $1,022,237 and in 2010 it was $1,287,900. The NRA has also spent $15,685,221 in Independent Expenditures this year. These were their 10 biggest investments so far for 2014:

• $2,838,055 in favor of Tom Cotton (R-AR)
• $2,793,304 in favor of Thom Tillis (R-NC)
• $2,017,708 attacking Bruce Braley (D-IA)
• $1,757,873 in favor of Cory Gardner (R-CO)
• $1,561,634 attacking Mary Landrieu (D-LA)
• $1,367,083 attacking Mark Udall (D-CO)
• $983,098 attacking Kay Hagan (D-NC)
• $788,769 attacking Alison Grimes (D-KY)
• $710,374 attacking Michelle Nunn (D-GA)
• $697,065 in favor of Mitch McConnell (R-KY)

The biggest Independent Expeditures in House races were on behalf of Stewart Mills (R-MN), Dan Benishek (R-MI), Steve Southerland (R-FL), Marilinda Garcia (R-NH), Mike Coffman (R-CO), Barbara Comstock (R-VA) and Carlos Curbelo (R-FL).

Interestingly enough, though, 2014 is also the year that gun reform groups are reporting that they are spending an equal amount in congressional races for the first time— even as gun violence has completely faded away as a top electoral issue. John Anzalone, the Blue Dog pollster: “I can’t think of one race where the gun issue has been prominent in any way.”

That isn’t stopping each side in the gun debate from planning to pump tens of millions of dollars into this fall’s races. There are numerous close contests, particularly for seats in a Senate that both parties hope to control next year.

“It’s an important issue to segments of voters on both sides” of the gun issue, said Neil Newhouse, a Republican pollster. “You don’t need to make a huge difference, you just need to make a little difference because these races are all so close.”

Few doubt that organizations led by billionaire Michael Bloomberg and the wounded former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., will unleash huge sums in the campaigns’ closing weeks to back candidates favoring firearms curbs. They’re off to modest starts— unlike the NRA.

Barely a month from Election Day, the nation’s most powerful gun rights group has so far reported spending over $10 million for ads and other efforts either for or against more than 60 congressional candidates. The efforts include sending NRA field representatives to gun shows to tout favored candidates.

That spending— which is supposed to be done independently and not coordinated with candidates— makes the NRA the ninth highest spender of more than 300 groups tracked by the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics, which monitors political spending.

Virtually all NRA spending has been to help Republicans. As of Aug. 31 it reported having $18.5 million banked and was still raising money.

NRA expenditures include over $1 million in each of five states— North Carolina, Arkansas, Iowa, Colorado and Louisiana— to help GOP hopefuls capture Senate seats held by Democrats. All those races seem tight.

Some NRA ads have targeted Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor who is bankrolling two groups that back gun curbs.

In one recent NRA spot, a Colorado woman, Kimberly Weeks, describes an assault she survived in her home and says, “Michael Bloomberg wants to take away my gun rights for self-defense while he surrounds himself with armed guards” at his New York home.

The NRA’s early spending advantage could be short-lived.

Bloomberg has pledged to spend $50 million this year to advance his gun control goals. Some of that is to support his Everytown for Gun Safety, which is focusing largely on state contests, including backing a Washington state ballot initiative to require background checks for private sales of firearms.

Bloomberg’s separate political committee, Independence USA PAC, has reported no significant campaign spending since helping two Democrats win special congressional elections last year. Bloomberg has reported contributing $11.4 million since January 2013 to several committees, mostly to Independence USA.

“We tend to spend late and heavy,” said Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson, referring to 2012, when the then-new Independence USA spent virtually all of its $8.2 million on ads in that campaign’s closing days. “It’s a strategy that we think is effective.”

Americans for Responsible Solutions, headed by Giffords and husband Mark Kelly, the one-time astronaut, has said it will at least match the $20 million the NRA spent during the entire 2012 campaign, which included a presidential race.

Giffords and Kelly plan getting involved in at least a dozen congressional races this month, including backing incumbent Democratic senators in Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Hampshire and North Carolina.

Their group reported having $9 million in cash this summer and spending $2.5 million so far this year for candidates favoring gun control. That has included support for the re-election of both Democratic congresswomen from New Hampshire and Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, a Republican gun control backer.

They’ve also helped Democratic Rep. Ron Barber battle a challenge by Republican Martha McSally for Giffords’ old House seat. Barber, Giffords’ former chief of staff, was wounded in the 2011 mass shooting that injured her.