Foget Steve Israel's Utter Incompetence And Grotesque Corruption For A Minute-- Will Boehner Be Speaker Again?

Boehner's lawsuit against Obama is turning out to be the bust most people predicted it would be. A Federal Court of Appeals threw out an almost identical lawsuit yesterday. Henry Decker, writing for the National Journal: "When House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced his plan to sue President Barack Obama for delaying enforcement of the Affordable Care Act’s employer mandate, the reviews were swift and negative. Legally, the lawsuit seemed destined for failure. Politically, it looked like a dud that could actively backfire on the GOP."

This morning Greg Sargent warned about another ill-advised Boehner position that could back to bite him in the ass. Now, Boehner knows Steve Israel's dysfunctional and corrupt DCCC is not going to fight him electorally back in OH-08; that's off the table and the special interests that make up Boehnerland have raised him $15,188,942 this cycle-- to the $83,882 raised by his grassroots Democratic opponent, Tom Poetter. So Boehner's vulnerability is his reelection to the Speaker's job. Sargent doesn't discuss that-- and we'll get to it in a moment-- but what he does talk about is the dunderheaded move Boehner made by hastily adjourning Congress instead of voting on an authorization-- yea or nay-- to go to war in Syria. Boehner's excuse-- which sounds very lame and disingenuous to his own caucus-- is that the president didn't ask for a vote. Sargent calls it "a dodge" and postulates that "[a] congressional vote on war might complicate GOP efforts to make national security an issue in the midterms, by hitting Dems with ads featuring grainy, 2002-style footage of terrorists. Many Republicans support Obama’s approach to ISIS, but they have endorsed it grudgingly, as a mere step in the right direction, while saying they don’t think it goes far enough, in order to be able to continue hitting Democrats on the issue… A full Congressional debate on war could make this sort of straddle harder to sustain, putting more pressure on GOP lawmakers-- and candidates who hope to gain from international turmoil-- to say what, precisely, they support doing instead. Like sending in ground troops."

This morning, though, it was Scott Wang at The Hill who looked at the far right-wing cabal plotting against Boehner and seeking to remove him as Speaker after the midterms. Their strategy, he writes "seems disorganized and fluid: Find a way to push the Speaker’s race to a second ballot, create turmoil in the conference, portray Boehner as highly vulnerable and offer up an alternative." And the Establishment types, media shills and lobbyists propping up Boehner have their own game-plan: buying off members with campaign contributions, boasting of his ability to hold the deranged neo-fascist wing of his caucus in check and to keep the GOP looking-- plausibly-- like adults.

Wang asserts that many on the far right fringe of the House GOP caucus are frustrated with Boehner and his leadership team (and leadership style). Paul Gosar, a neo-fascist extremist from Arizona has pledged to vote against Boehner. "In tough times, it doesn’t mean you play timid, it means to play bold, and I don’t see that. And you know what? Time’s up. I’m tired of the status quo of what’s going on in Washington, D.C. America’s tired, America’s angry and they’re scared, because they don’t have leaders in Washington, D.C."

Many of the regular whiney extremists are on the same page. Louie Gohmert, who combines an instinct for Naziism with doctrinaire primitive religion, made it clear that he will oppose Boehner, as he did in 2012: "I’ll give him every bit as much support as I did last time." Ditto for Walter Jones (R-NC), a principled libertarian who abhors Boehner's sleazy, lobbyist-directed style of governance.

There are Republican anti-Boehner meetings being called regularly in DC, some chaired by Ted Cruz, some put together by more principled conservatives.

As is standard, House Republicans will vote twice to elect the Speaker and their other leaders for the new Congress: once on a secret ballot during a closed-door conference meeting after the Nov. 4 elections and then again in January in a public vote on the House floor-- the first vote of the 114th Congress.

No one has publicly stepped forward to take on the sitting Speaker. Former Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.) is out of the picture after his sudden and spectacular defeat in his June GOP primary. And potential conservative rivals like Reps. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) or Raúl Labrador (R-Idaho) haven’t been making any moves behind the scenes for the Speaker’s gavel.

In the private election slated for the week of Nov. 10, Boehner will need 50 percent of the votes plus one to win what many expect to be his final term as Speaker. If the GOP picks up between five and eight seats this fall [thank Nancy Pelosi for reappointed proven incompetent Steve Israel after his colossal 2012 failure], that would bring its majority to roughly 240 seats. That means two or more other Boehner challengers would need to capture more than 120 backers combined to push the race to a second ballot and throw the process into chaos-- a scenario most observers see as implausible.

A more likely scenario would come during the public roll call, just as it did during the coup attempt against Boehner in January 2013. About 20 Boehner defectors would need to hold the line, depriving him of the 218-vote simple majority he needs to win another two years as Speaker. Democrats would almost certainly withhold their votes for Boehner if they saw the GOP leader foundering.

“You’ve got to have 20 to 25 committed people that are willing to cut their wrist,” Jones explained, “and if you’re not willing to cut your wrist, you’re not really committed.”

If Boehner doesn’t win on the first roll call, lawmakers keep voting until someone wins a simple majority of the 435-member House. And even after several rounds of votes, Boehner still could prevail over potential challengers.

Boehner’s office has expressed confidence he will be the Speaker in the 114th Congress.

“The Speaker is gratified by the strong support he has from members across our conference, and he’s looking forward to what we can accomplish for the country in the years ahead,” Boehner spokesman Kevin Smith said Tuesday in response to questions from The Hill about efforts to depose the Speaker.

But Boehner will face a conference that is expected to be even more conservative than the one he’s led for the past four years.

As a matter of policy, Beltway trade publications, like The Hill, don't refer to GOP extremists as "fascists" or "fanatics," "reactionaries," "neo-Nazis" or anything else other than "conservatives," as if to imply Boehner and his own backers are something other than conservatives themselves. Their practice is to refer to actual conservatives as "moderates."

Ten of the 12 Republicans who didn’t back Boehner in the public floor vote early last year are cruising to reelection. And a number of Republicans running to replace longtime retiring members in red districts have publicly stated they won’t back Boehner for Speaker.

Political newcomer Gary Palmer, who is expected to replace Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Ala.), told Bloomberg that Boehner’s “lost his legitimacy to lead.” Former state Sen. Barry Loudermilk, who will succeed Rep. Phil Gingrey (R-Ga.), “will not support Boehner as speaker,” his spokesman told The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. And Wisconsin state Sen. Glenn Grothman, the nominee to replace longtime Rep. Tom Petri, told Reuters voters want “conservative candidates who want to stand up to Republican leadership. And that’s me.”

Republicans who say they will not vote for Boehner to be Speaker-- or who refuse to commit to voting for him:

• Walter Jones (R-NC)

• Louie Gohmert (R-TX)
• Justin Amash (R-MI)
• Jim Bridenstine (R-OK)
• Steve Pearce (R-NM)
• Tim Huelskamp (R-KS)
• Tom Massie (R-KY)
• Ted Yoho (R-FL)
• Steve King (R-IA)
• Paul Gosar (R-AZ)
• Matt Salmon (R-AZ)
• candidate John Ratcliffe (R-TX)
• candidate Gary Palmer (R-MI)
• candidate Mark Walker (R-NC)
• candidate Glenn Grothman (R-WI)
• candidate Barry Loudermilk (R-GA)
• candidate Jody Hice (R-GA)